Pay close attention to these races

If you are watching election results through the prism of Cobb County’s changing political and racial demographic next week, pay attention to these races:

MIKE KING
MY OPINION

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Martin vs. Chambliss

If Barack Obama comes close to winning Georgia — an outcome unheard of just a few weeks ago — look next for how Jim Martin, the Democrat running against U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss, does. If there is indeed a surge of voters going over to Democrats this year, Republican Chambliss could lose Cobb County.

If that happens, he is likely to be toast statewide. Georgia’s GOP has counted on Cobb County to be solidly Republican for more than a generation — the only interruption being native son Roy Barnes’ runs for governor. But, clearly, with blacks greatly outnumbering whites in new registration in the county, Cobb is no longer a GOP stronghold. Check to see if Obama’s vote totals come close to Martin’s in Cobb County.

The sheriff’s race

Republican incumbent Neil Warren should steam roll his Democratic challenger, Gregory Gilstrap. It wasn’t close when the two men ran against each other four years ago. Gilstrap is again running a shoestring campaign with a tiny amount of money. But if he closes the vote gap this year, it would be a good indication of whether the new registrants are voting a straight Democratic ticket. If that doesn’t happen, it will be an indication that the Obama factor was limited to the top of the ticket.

The school board

Will the evolution debate come back? Republican school board candidate David Banks, seeking to represent east Cobb, told the Marietta Daily Journal that he thinks creationism ought to be taught in the county schools. “A theory is not a fact and is often discarded as being wrong. So far evolution is not a fact,” Banks said. “Most people believe in creation by a deity… To ignore the belief of a vast majority of the people and refuse to teach creationism is an affront to the belief system that most of the community holds.”

His opponent, Democrat Linda Schwartz, won’t go there. “I respect everyone’s right to think as they choose. I believe that creationism and intelligent design should be taught in the home, not in public schools,” Schwartz told the newspaper. East Cobb has always been considered the most conservative part of the county. This race may be a good test of how partisan and ideological the area truly is. Banks — playing the “evolution is just a theory” card — is counting on hard-core conservatives to rule the day. If he wins and pushes that nonsense on the board, it could wind up costing the county another round of court challenges and legal fees. (Besides money, the district lost its academic credibility the last time the board got hoodwinked into the evolution debate by creationists.) Then again, the district may not be as conservative as it is billed. If so, watch for Schwartz.

The TAD vote

The concept of tax allocation districts has been more controversial in Cobb than in any of the state’s other 158 counties. Cobb’s school board initially agreed to support the city of Smyrna’s revitalization by allowing school property taxes to be deferred to pay off redevelopment bonds. But the school board started balking at the concept a few years ago — after Smyrna and other cities in the county kept coming back needing more money for more projects.

Eventually, in an unrelated case, the Georgia Supreme Court ruled that TAD financing using money that would have gone to schools was unconstitutional. That set up Amendment 2 on the ballot this year, which would alter the constitution and allow school money to be used for redevelopment purposes. (It’s important to remember the amendment would simply make it legal. Schools would retain the authority to say no to cities and developers who want to use school taxes for TADs.)

Predicting the outcome of Amendment 2 statewide is pure guesswork. It’s one of the last things on the end of a very long ballot. Because the concept has generated such heat in Cobb, voters might instinctively reject it. Still, the wording on the ballot may be ambiguous enough that voters elsewhere will find no problem with it and vote “yes.” It will be interesting to see whether Cobb differs from the rest of the state on this one.

— Mike King is a member of the editorial board.