The economy has driven down enough steep hills in recent months to leave butterflies in many stomachs. The latest data indicate the trip isn't over yet, a fact politicians and the Federal Reserve would do well to remember in coming months.

There's good news —- the Conference Board, a New York-based research group, reported Thursday that the index of leading economic indicators ticked upward in March. The Conference Board's report is well-watched because it's thought to be a good pointer toward where the economy could be headed in the next three to six months.

But there's bad news too. Taking a bit of a longer view, the Conference Board's indicator shows an annual rate of decline of 3.3 percent for the six months ending in March. The Board said the behavior of the indexes "suggests economic weakness is likely to continue in the near term."

Government checks arriving in the household mail —- part of the economic stimulus package passed by Congress and signed by President Bush —- will help some but not nearly enough, especially if debt-wary consumers wisely use that cash to pay bills instead of make new purchases.

There are also signs that the Federal Reserve's assertive steps to bolster credit markets and lower interest rates have helped as well. The positive showing of the Conference Board's index of leading indicators could mean the economy won't slacken further in the year's second half, although many experts scanning all the data are leaning toward a more pessimistic view.

For its part, the Federal Reserve district that includes Georgia indicated in an anecdotal report this week that economic activity in its territory weakened in March and early April. That puts us on par with the rest of the country.

The Atlanta Fed's "Beige Book" reported slowdowns in sectors such as real estate and retail sales, trends that even non-economists could spot. Employment was characterized as "generally subdued," with many companies slowing hiring or cutting jobs. Interestingly, some firms reported a hesitation to part with skilled employees because they wanted them in place "when conditions improved."

One bright spot was that tourists kept traveling and opening their pocketbooks in March, boosting the hospitality sector. But with prices soaring for gasoline and aviation fuel, that trend may prove hard to sustain.

Later this month, the Fed's Open Market Committee meets to ponder whether further rate cuts may be needed. With the economy still traveling a pretty rough road, committee members may be forced to continue cutting interest rates in hopes of paving the way to a brighter future.

—- Andre Jackson, for the editorial board (aajackson@ajc.com)