DEL.ICIO.USMore than personal political fortunes at stake in ‘09
Monday, January 12, 2009
Politicians don’t make many friends by saying no.
However, faced with a budget deficit in the neighborhood of $2 billion — a number more likely to grow than shrink as the true depth of this recession becomes apparent — legislators are going to find themselves saying no to an awful lot of people in the 2009 Georgia General Assembly, which opens today.
No to spending on education, on health care. No to spending on the state’s mental-health system. No to business groups and transportation advocates demanding that the state finally begin to invest real money in its infrastructure, the key to future growth.
It’s a problem faced by every legislature in the country, but in some areas the looming cuts will hit Georgia harder because spending is already so inadequate.
For example, Georgia’s mental-health institutions are under federal investigation because shabby care has led in some cases to unnecessary patient deaths. And according to Transportation Commissioner Gena Evans, Georgia has the nation’s third-fastest-growing population, yet it ranks 49th in the amount of resources spent per capita on transportation. Over the long haul, numbers like that will inevitably produce a crisis, and it has done so here in Georgia right in the worst economic climate in generations.
The ‘09 session will also test the state’s political leadership, which even in good times hasn’t exactly inspired confidence in its vision or emotional maturity.
Halfway through his second and final term, Gov. Sonny Perdue has been a caretaker governor at best. He is by nature more of a manager than a leader, unwilling to risk the major initiative or change of direction. That approach has brought him strong approval ratings, but little real progress for Georgia.
In the Senate, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle has hopes of moving up to Perdue’s job. So far, though, Cagle has proved to be a politician whose considerable ambitions exceed his abilities. He needs to reverse that perception this legislative session before it hardens into accepted wisdom. At a time when interest groups ought to be coalescing around him as the state’s next governor, his support seems lukewarm at best.
For Speaker of the House Glenn Richardson, of course, it may already be too late. His reputation as a hothead has been cemented by repeated outbursts of public anger, pique and pettiness. This year, like last year, he starts the General Assembly reportedly determined to show a better side of himself, but as the session drags on, tempers rise and the decisions get more difficult … well, let’s just say that Richardson is to anger management what Oprah Winfrey is to weight loss. Best intentions sometimes go awry.
However, while all three men have a lot at stake in the ‘09 session, success or failure could also have a broader political impact on the state.
In a column for InsiderAdvantage.com, University of Georgia professor Charles Bullock III points out that in the ‘08 election, the dominance of the Republican Party in Georgia began showing some pretty large cracks. The party’s success has been built on drawing overwhelming support among white voters, he says, but that demographic group is shrinking pretty quickly, at least in relative terms.
According to Bullock, “The consequences of whites constituting less and less of the electorate are obvious. Georgia will turn blue again.”
“Have Republican leaders begun to ponder how to frame issues either to attract a larger share of the black vote or to become the preferred option for the state’s growing numbers of Latino and Asian votes?” he asks. “They need not devise a strategy to succeed in 2010, but the clock is ticking.”
In another sign of state political trends, exit polls from November reported that among voters 39 and younger, Barack Obama actually beat John McCain in Georgia. I doubt that means the state will turn blue anytime soon, but it does mean it may at least become competitive, allowing the best candidates of both parties to come to the forefront.
That can’t be a bad thing.
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