Will water ruling dry up growth?

By Dan Chapman and Leon Stafford

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

First came the drought. Then the recession. Now Atlanta faces the prospect of losing the waters of Lake Lanier — the region’s lifeblood the past 50 years.

A federal judge gave Georgia, Alabama and Florida three years to end the water war. Without a deal, metro Atlanta faces a “draconian” future, the judge said.

Developers, politicians and business leaders said the ruling could prove catastrophic.

“This is an extraordinarily draconian ruling,” said Tad Leithead, senior vice president with Cousins Properties. “It has the potential to be extremely damaging to growth and development in the Atlanta area.”

New home construction would wither without Lanier. Water-dependent industries might disappear; they certainly wouldn’t relocate to Atlanta. Residential and commercial water rates could skyrocket. Lawns would die.

“It would perhaps have a Katrina-sized effect on the metro economy,” said Sam Williams, president of the Metro Atlanta Chamber. “We’ve got to make sure this gets solved before the ultimate deadline hits us.”

Not everybody believes that Atlanta’s economy would be under water without Lanier. Land-use patterns might shift, but construction would continue. Counties beyond the river’s watershed — Morgan, Floyd, Lamar — might boom.

Older communities on both sides of I-285 could be redeveloped. Denser urban communities might spawn environmentally friendly mass transit. Conservation would become more than a buzzword.

Paul Freeman, who built the St. Regis hotel in Buckhead, envisions blue skies where most developers see clouds. Washington, he says, won’t let Atlanta dry up.

“Everything right now is just speculation,” said Freeman. “By the time we are ready to build, it will probably have been sorted out.”

Population increase?

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers releases millions of gallons of water daily from Lanier. But Florida and Alabama say they don’t get enough of the Chattahoochee for their needs. U.S. District Judge Paul Magnuson, in a ruling widely seen as damaging to Georgia, said the corps illegally supplies metro Atlanta with Lanier water to the detriment of Florida and Alabama.

“Local governments allow unchecked growth because it increases tax revenue, but these same governments do not sufficiently plan for the resources such unchecked growth will require,” Magnuson wrote.

Roughly 5.5 million people live in the 20-county metro area, according to the Atlanta Regional Commission, 10 times the number in 1956 when the Chattahoochee was dammed to create Lake Lanier. Another 3 million people, and 1.6 million jobs, are expected by 2040.

The ARC reported, before the judge’s ruling, that water supply would keep up with future demand. Water usage, in the 15-county Metropolitan North Georgia Water Planning District, is expected to skyrocket from an average of 600 million gallons daily (in 2006) to slightly more than 1 billion gallons by 2035.

If that water dries up, much of the projected growth will dry up too. “Without water, there is no economic development,” said Leithead. “So growth will gravitate to where water is not an issue.”

Business impact

Magnuson’s ruling not only jeopardizes Atlanta’s access to Lake Lanier, but six planned reservoirs intended to augment supply across the region may also be in doubt.

For example, Bear Creek Reservoir in south Fulton is expected to yield 16.4 million gallons of water daily. But Florida considers Bear Creek, which would be fed by the Chattahoochee, yet another illegal straw sucking water from downstream needs.

Sending more water downstream may mean less business upstream.

“Obviously, water is absolutely vital to us,” said John Brock, CEO of Coca-Cola Enterprises, the bottling giant. “You have to have an ample supply of quality water if you want to continue to do business here.”

States competing for any business-recruitment advantage make sure relocation prospects understand Georgia’s water woes.

“Water is on their checklist,” said Bill Pinto, president of Hardin Construction. “If [water] is not there, it’s harder to make the case to bring companies here.”

A future without ample water will also cost ratepayers. Cobb County, for example, drew 52 million gallons of water from the Chattahoochee on Wednesday. (It also tapped Lake Allatoona for 49 million gallons.)

In 1975, Cobb took an average of 16 million gallons daily from the Chattahoochee.

Benefits elsewhere

Finding, transporting and treating water from elsewhere to make up the difference would be extraordinarily expensive, said Bob Kenyon with the Cobb County-Marietta Water Authority.

Growth is likely to continue across North Georgia after 2012. Where it does, though, could prove interesting. Rome and environs have ample water thanks to the Coosa River basin. Sally Bethea, executive director of the Upper Chattahoochee Riverkeeper, suggests that communities in Middle and South Georgia could benefit, too.

“Instead of trying to bring water to where all the people are, maybe people can relocate to communities where water is abundant,” she said.