Palin, Huckabee visit as Handel, Deal make closing bids

By Aaron Gould Sheinin

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Sarah Palin can't vote in Georgia's Republican runoff for governor on Tuesday. Neither, for that matter, can Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich.

So despite the involvement of those GOP stalwarts in the race between Karen Handel and Nathan Deal, Tuesday's outcome will be decided by which candidate does the best at getting actual voters to the actual polls.

Still, Deal and Handel agree, endorsements from party stars can certainly help convince voters to head for the ballot box. Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor who won Georgia's 2008 Republican presidential primary, was in Gainesville on Deal's behalf Sunday. Monday at noon at the InterContinental Hotel in Buckhead, Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee, will stump for Handel.

Both campaigns claim the high-profile endorsements, and especially the personal visits to the state, will help get voters' feet moving on Tuesday.

"(Palin) coming just generates an enthusiasm unlike anything else we can possibly do," Handel spokesman Dan McLagan said. "It allows us to be big news on the day before the election that will remind people that there's a runoff and get people fired up."

Huckabee and former U.S. Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., will do the same, Deal spokesman Brian Robinson said. Gingrich released a Web video Friday urging voters to turn out for Deal.

"Having someone like Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich, who have built-in credibility with conservative voters, it sends a signal to the people most likely to show up Tuesday that this guy is ‘OK,'" Robinson said. "This guy holds the same principles that are most important to people like me and you."

They also have an advantage over Palin, Robinson said: They've both actually won elections in Georgia.

Political experts are mixed on the impact.

Dick Pettys, who has covered Georgia politics for more than three decades for The Associated Press and now for InsiderAdvantage, remembers former Gov. Zell Miller insisting that endorsements didn't matter much.

"I'm not so sure," Pettys said. "That may have been true at one time, among Democrats. I'm  not just so sure but that Palin motivates voters some."

But, Pettys also noted, Palin is a somewhat controversial figure in Republican politics.

"I think she moves (voters) both ways," he said. "She moves them toward Handel and she may move them against Handel."

University of Georgia political scientist Charles Bullock, who has written a book analyzing voter behavior in runoff elections, said some polls have shown Palin's endorsement benefiting Handel. Voters who identify with Palin or Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who also endorsed Handel, or with Huckabee and Gingrich, could be motivated by their endorsements, he said.

While Palin's scheduled appearance comes the day before polls open, Huckabee has also made a furious push for Deal over the final days. In addition to endorsing and campaigning for Deal on Sunday, he recorded an automated phone call for Deal and gave his supporters on the Internet a way to sign up to make calls on Deal's behalf.

Huckabee groups in other states, such as Indiana, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Alabama and Illinois, touted Deal and the phone bank through Twitter and Facebook.

In Gainesville on Sunday, Huckabee and Deal drew hundreds of supporters to the city's civic center.

Huckabee -- who got the most votes among Republicans in Georgia's 2008 presidential primary -- called Deal a candidate with authentic convictions, praised his stance against abortion and touted Deal’s endorsement by the National Rifle Association, a group Huckabee called “politically pure."

“Get on the phone,” Huckabee exhorted Deal's supporters. “Make as many phone calls as your fingers can stand.”

But a new poll for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the Georgia Newspaper Partnership shows few voters said endorsements drove their choice of candidate. When those polled by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research were asked the most important reason they were supporting a candidate, only 9 percent of Handel supporters and 8 percent of Deal supporters said it was because of endorsements from other leaders.

The poll, released Sunday, showed Handel leading Deal 47 percent to 42 percent.

Shirley Brown, of Stone Mountain, is among those motivated by an endorsement. Palin's support helped move her to Handel.

"I like that woman," Brown, 78, said of Palin. "She's got guts. I like strong women. A lot of people are afraid of them, but the southern part of this country is raised on strong women and there are still a few of us left around here. The men have had all these years to screw up in Washington and here and I'm ready to give a woman a chance."

For Fred Kantrell of Canton, it was a personal connection to Gingrich that convinced him to vote for Deal.

"Newt did me a couple of favors before," said Kantrell, 72. "I met him and got to know him a little bit and I just felt like when he asked me to vote for Nathan Deal, I felt a little obligated."

Beyond endorsements, other factors could affect turnout Tuesday. Voters need a reason to return to the polls three weeks after the primary, Bullock said, and one impetus could be having multiple races in which to vote. For example, in the 9th congressional district, there is a runoff election Tuesday for Deal's old seat in the U.S. House.

Voters in the 9th District, where many of Deal's primary votes came from, could be more inclined to turn out again.

"And once they're there they'll probably cast a vote for the top of the ticket," Bullock said.

As with much in politics, however, there is another side to the story. This will be the fourth election in the 9th district in the past few months. A special primary election was held in May after Deal resigned his seat. A runoff followed a few weeks later. Then, there was the regular primary in July followed by Tuesday's runoff.

"The problem I'd be concerned about if I was a Deal advisor is that maybe those voters in the 9th district are feeling voter fatigue," Bullock said. "Some of them may just have had enough voting."

McLagan said Handel has more than enough opportunities to offset any 9th district boost for Deal. There is also a runoff in the 7th congressional district, where Handel bested Deal in the primary. Plus, there's a runoff for attorney general and the leading candidate is former Cobb County Commission chairman Sam Olens. Handel trounced Deal in Cobb on July 20.

"There are a lot of these runoffs that are in spots where Karen ran very strong," he said.

-- Ashley Fielding of the Gainesville (Ga.) Times contributed to this article.