Southern poll: McCain holds big edge on economy

COLUMBIA, S.C. — Even as Barack Obama luxuriates in the glow of the Democratic convention, a significant trouble spot has appeared on his horizon.

A poll conducted by Winthrop University and ETV shows likely Southern voters strongly favor Obama’s Republican opponent, John McCain, when it comes to their top concern, the U.S. economy.

Asked who would do a better job on the economy, Obama trails McCain by 14 percentage points among likely voters in 11 Southern states, according to the poll. Working-class white voters in the South prefer McCain on the economy by an even wider margin — 54 percent to 29.5 percent.

The results are striking, given Obama’s focus on the economy and McCain’s public statement that economic matters are not his strong suit. The results also loom as a potential threat to Obama’s hope of picking off a Southern state or two, an accomplishment that almost certainly would put him in the White House.

Why do Southerners favor McCain on the economy?

“John McCain is certainly well known and has a history of trying to end wasteful government,” said Katon Dawson, chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party. “Barack Obama is untested. Right now, you’re looking at the mood shift.”

Indeed, while the Winthrop/ETV poll shows McCain crushing Obama in a region where Republicans typically fare well, other national polls show the race to be tightening.

Obama and his supporters all along have insisted that the polling leads he has enjoyed over McCain would narrow. And, they add, regional or national polls are not as important as individual state polls because presidential elections are, essentially, a series of statewide contests for electoral votes.

But the Winthrop/ETV poll underscores the challenge Obama faces in the South, where cultural issues, including gun rights, abortion rights and religious faith, give Republicans an advantage.

Black candidates for statewide office in the South tend to do poorly, as they must rely on white support to win. The poll shows that Obama’s plan — turn out loads of black voters and convince white voters they can trust him on national security and the economy — has, so far, failed to gain traction.

“They don’t trust Obama yet,” said Scott Huffmon, a Winthrop associate professor of political science who helped direct the poll. “They don’t know much about him. They think they know McCain.”