McCain, Obama essentially tied in Georgia, poll says

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McCain, Obama essentially tied in Georgia, poll says
Democratic candidate releases television, radio ads across state

By AARON GOULD SHEININ
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 06/19/08

As Barack Obama's campaign announced Thursday that it will launch television advertisements in Georgia and 17 other states Friday, a new poll shows the Democratic hopeful essentially tied with Republican John McCain in Georgia.

The poll from Atlanta-based Insider Advantage shows McCain's lead shrinking from 10 percentage points a month ago to a 44 percent to 43 percent split today, with Libertarian nominee Bob Barr, the former Republican congressman from Georgia, drawing 6 percent.

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In the new ad, the first of the general election campaign to make Georgia's airwaves, Obama speaks directly to the camera and seeks to connect with voters through a biography that emphasizes family values.

"America is a country of strong families and strong values. My life's been blessed by both," Obama says in the ad, which is running in 13 states that President George W. Bush won in 2004.

The television ad follows a radio spot Obama cut this week on behalf of U.S. Rep. John Barrow, the Democrat in Georgia's 12th District.

The McCain campaign on Thursday said they welcome Obama's expenditure.

"We're obviously overjoyed when Barack Obama spends money in a state that we are very, very confident that John McCain will carry in November," McCain spokesman Jeff Sadosky said.

While Obama's ad touts his support of the benefits for the military, of shrinking welfare rolls and of tax cuts for working families, Sadosky said Obama will raise taxes on seniors, small businesses and families. And Sadosky questioned Obama's open discussion of faith in the ad.

Obama, he said, "has equated people of faith with some level of bitterness. That sort of message, regardless of how much you spend on advertising, will not resonate with the voters of Georgia."

The Obama campaign did not release details of the ad buy and it was not immediately clear if it will air in the Atlanta market. But it is going up in Virginia and North Carolina, as well as Georgia, as Obama begins his attempt to expand the campaign into states long thought of as solidly Republican. Georgia, for example, hasn't voted for a Democrat for president since Bill Clinton upset incumbent George H.W. Bush in 1992.

But Clinton in 1996 was also the last Democrat to be competitive in Georgia, even though he lost the state to Republican Bob Dole by less than 2 percentage points.

The poll released Thursday by Insider Advantage suggests Obama is ready to compete now. It shows Obama leading by almost 11 percentage points among those independent voters than often decide an election, according to Insider Advantage CEO Matt Towery.

The poll was of 500 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

It shows the race to be tighter than any other Georgia poll has shown. A Rasmussen Reports poll released June 10 showed McCain still with a 10-point lead and the average of all other Georgia polls (not including the new Insider Advantage poll) shows McCain ahead by more than 11 percentage points.

"This is a very precarious situation" for McCain, Towery said. "It's precarious because it's going to be a battle to the end."

Towery said Obama could actually pick up another 2 to 4 percentage points given the phenomenal increase in voter registration among African Americans in Georgia.

"I had it in my gut this was going this way, but I really didn't have it confirmed until last night."

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Comments

By John Smith

Jun 26, 2008 12:31 AM | Link to this

Georgia has a drought. To solve the drought and bring about rain, the Governor of the state, Sonny Perdue, organized a state-wide prayer to God so it will rain.

If this is not straight out of the Middle Ages, I don't know is it. I wonder what the whites of Georgia think of native Americans dancing to bring about rain.

This is emblematic of what Obama is up against. Entire states populated by ignorant racist whites who live in the 18th century (the civilized world stopped praying for rain centuries ago.)

In Georgia, John McCain has nothing to worry about.

By Nick

Jun 21, 2008 12:23 PM | Link to this

It's a shame that anyone can win the state without getting a majority of the vote.

By makeeazymoneytoday.com

Jun 20, 2008 2:40 PM | Link to this

I have said for a while that BO will flip Georgia Blue it is just a matter of time. when will people realize that there is a Political perfect storm about to hit the Republicans they had the keys to the country and made us much worse than we are now.

I am amazed that McCain is still preaching Tax Cuts and continual funding of the Iraq Conflict. spending billions over seas when your homeland is faltering does not sound like experience to me. it sounds like political waste and if the roles were reveresed the Republicans would have been screeming for our troops to come home.

and if McCain thinks that Obama backing out of his promise to take public campaign finance money will hurt Obama he has to think again Obama has over one million supporters and will have another 500k-750k once he gets access to Clinton's supportors if those 2 million people give Obama just $100 then Obama objective of change would have come to fruition.

McCain will lose in a landslide

By songbird

Jun 20, 2008 10:07 AM | Link to this

Gary - if you look at the polls on Real Clear Politics website, you will see Obama gradually increasing from 40 to 41 to 43. Conversly, McCain drops successively for each poll. Also The Insider poll includes Bob Barr and the other two did not have him in the mix. The 6% Barr gets most likely comes straight out of McCain's percentage from the previous two polls.

By SC

Jun 20, 2008 9:32 AM | Link to this

News flash Bruce our prisoners will be tortured even if we put enemy POW's in the Hilton. Are you that naive to think that the people we are dealing with give a damn about the Geneva convention?

By YALL ARE GETTING NERVOUS

Jun 20, 2008 9:13 AM | Link to this

I know it breaks a lot of fringe right conservatives hearts on this blog, but the race in Georgia is going to be close. The fact is Kerry got 41% with a 52% turnout of African American registered voters. This time 80% will show up and 100,000 newly registered African Americans will vote. That gives Obama an additional 300,000+ votes.

18-29 year olds of all races are heavily Democratic in Georgia. I have seen polls that puts this group 60-30 in favor of Obama. On February 5th 18-29 year olds pulled Democratic ballots by a margin of 174,000 to 102,000 and it was the largest increase of youth voting in the nation. I know it breaks your hearts, but young people in this state, even the children of Republicans, are sick of Perdue/W/Saxby/McCain politics.

Between the youth turning on Republicans, African Americans coming out in droves and Bob Barr taking 3 to 7 percent McCain is in for a huge fight here in Georgia. Many of the other polls are basing their survey pools on 2004 and 2006 turnouts in Georgia and that's why they're showing McCain up by ten. I'm not saying Obama will carry Georgia, but if you think he gets less than 45%(With Barr that's a dead heat) you're completely off your rocker and don't understand politics. Obama will outspend McCain 10 to 1 in Georgia because MAC can't afford to spend money here and compete with Obama in the 2004 toss-up states. YOU AIN'T SEEN NOTHIN YET!

PS: All of the primary polls in states with large African American populations significantly under estimated the final result for Obama.

By Mrs. Davis

Jun 20, 2008 6:13 AM | Link to this

If the poll says they're tied, then McCain is ahead. Some whites are always going to lie about voting for a black, and then vote for the white person in the voter's booth. It's the Bradley Effect.

By Jock Ewing

Jun 20, 2008 1:46 AM | Link to this

Obama doesnt have a prayer in Georgia, Texas or any southern state.

In fact, he could end up being a laughing stock like Walter Mondale or Michael Dukakis.

Gonna be a great night to get drunk in November no matter what side you are one.

By Bruce becker

Jun 20, 2008 1:05 AM | Link to this

Five months to go. Yes, some other polls have McCain up by 10. Obama just ran his first ad this week, and his supporters will register a 100,000 new voters in Georgia.
McCain's financial advisor's client, United Bank of Scotland already advised their employees a month ago, not to travel to the USA, so they are not arrested for mortgage fraud. Give this election some time. McCain's lead is going to evaporate, regardless of who Barr chooses as his running mate.

By Katherine

Jun 20, 2008 1:05 AM | Link to this

Gary's comments on Insider Advantage polling shows a lack of knowledge of the facts. This is considered the hottest polling firm in the nation, they are based in Atlanta and you bash?
Based on RealClearPOlitics numbers Insider smoked the others by polling 12 out of 13 of the major prez contests this year with the correct winner. I sort of laugh because while you a few jealous types throw attacks out there, the biggest names in journalism are fighting to get a piece of the company for themselves. There's a reason Towery is on the biggest national network affiliate in the country...he's usually right.

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