Census says migration to South, West is slowing

By Damien Cave

New York Times

States in the South and West that grew at a record clip during the real estate boom of just a few years ago are now experiencing sharply slower growth in population, the Census Bureau said Wednesday.

Many of those states, including Georgia, are still projected to gain seats in Congress after the 2010 census, while industrial states in the Northeast and Midwest will likely see their delegations shrink.

But in a sign of the recession’s power to reshape established demographic trends, the new census figures show that growth has slowed substantially in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, while in Florida, Nevada and California, more Americans moved out than in.

As a corollary, the new data show that several states in the Northeast — including New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts — are holding on to more residents.

“What we have is a decade of a roller coaster in terms of migration,” said William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. “If you look at the middle part of this decade, Florida led the county in net domestic migration. Now it’s in the negative part of the ledger.”

The figures released Wednesday — the last state estimates to be published before actual results from the 2010 census count become available — reflect data as of July. The numbers are both the most up-to-date reflection of the recession’s impact nationwide, and the best available predictor of congressional reapportionment.

In all, 17 states would be subjected to redistricting if the estimates hold in the door-to-door head count next year. Influence would generally shift from traditionally Democratic northern areas struggling with industrial decline and an aging population, to the South and West, where independents are ascendant and disputes over immigration, taxes and environmental issues, like water supply, tend to stand out.

Texas, for example, appears to be the big winner.

It would gain three seats in Congress under the July estimate, bringing its total to 35. Between July 2008 and July 2009, it added more people from home and abroad than any other state — 231,539. That is more than Florida, Arizona, California, Nevada and Colorado, combined.

The new figures show Georgia’s population grew by 131,373 in the year that ended July 1, keeping the state in ninth place overall. That put Georgia’s population at 9,829,211, compared with 9,697,838 on July 1, 2008. It stood at 8,186,781 at the 2000 official census.

The state’s population growth was substantially lower than the estimated increase of 162,447 the previous year.

More broadly, however, the recession that began in 2007 has significantly slowed the great American migration toward warmth and sun. It was a move, earlier in the decade, driven as much by quality of life as easy credit, according to demographers and economists. But the reversal is nearly as dramatic.

State rankings prepared by Frey, based on the new numbers, show that Florida is now 45th in domestic migration growth after ranking first from July 2001 to July 2005. It lost 31,179 people to other states from July 2008 to July 2009.

Similarly, Nevada has fallen to 17th on the total growth-rate list, after leading the country from 2000 to 2004. It now ranks 36th in domestic migration, losing 3,801 people after adding more than 170,000 from other states from July 2003 to July 2006.

“The population trends are obviously now being shaped by this economic decline,” said Andrew A. Beveridge, a Queens College demographer. “The places that have had a really big decline economically, the states hit most heavily by the real estate crisis, have certainly had a real decline of people showing up there.”

Formerly high-growth states are likely to gain seats in Congress. In addition to Georgia, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington would add one seat each, according to an analysis of the figures by Beveridge.

The Associated Press contributed to this article.