Mayoral hopefuls make final push for support

By Eric Stirgus

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

On Tuesday, Atlanta voters will elect a new mayor and complete the final chapter of a long and intriguing campaign.

The story lines of the two candidates in the runoff election are riveting.

If elected, city Councilwoman Mary Norwood would become Atlanta’s first white mayor since Sam Massell left office in 1974.

Former state Sen. Kasim Reed is hoping to win after one leading pollster gauged his support at just 9 percent just three months ago.

Both candidates face a similar challenge — getting voters to the polls, in the midst of the holiday season.

Only 30 percent of Atlanta voters cast their ballots in the Nov. 3 general election for mayor. Fulton County officials say history shows about half of those who voted the first time return for the runoff.

“At the end of the day, this race is about turnout,” said Norwood campaign manager Roman Levit. “Will our voters come back? Will [Reed’s] voters come back? Do the other candidates’ voters come back?”

The candidates are using a multitude of methods and messages to reach voters.

Norwood is waging battle through a blitz of television ads and glossy fliers sent to homes that complain Reed does not pay his property taxes on time, accuse “some” of attempting to divide the city by race, and say she is the candidate who will bring change to Atlanta. Norwood supporters are also standing at busy intersections to wave at motorists. The candidate sent a letter last week to supporters requesting donations, saying every “crony” is pouring money into the Reed campaign.

Reed has countered through a slew of recent endorsements, his own TV and YouTube spots and through Facebook messages. He says that Norwood is misleading voters on the tax issue and other matters, that he’ll make the city safer, and that Norwood has a thin record on the City Council and little support among her colleagues. Reed supporters are driving voters to the polls and the candidate is personally calling undecided voters.

“He makes the case better than anybody,” said state Rep. Rashad Taylor, who is Reed’s deputy campaign manager.

A higher percentage of residents have voted early than in the general election, which suggests a larger than projected turnout.

Marshall Lay, holding court one recent morning at Philly’s Finest Barber Shop on Martin Luther King Jr. Drive, said voters are engaged.

“You have two candidates who are saying a lot of things about making changes,” he said. “I think people are going to be surprised at how many people come out for the runoff.”

Three recent polls suggest the race is a dead heat, with few undecided voters. Thus, both campaigns are focusing on voter turnout.

Norwood led all six candidates on the Nov. 3 ballot with 46 percent of the vote. Reed finished second with 36 percent. Norwood dominated in predominately white precincts in north Atlanta. Reed ruled in predominately black precincts in southwest Atlanta. A candidate must get more than 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff.

History suggests Norwood has the advantage. An Atlanta Journal-Constitution review of 35 state, congressional, countywide and citywide campaigns since 2000 found the candidate with more votes in the first election won the runoff in 23 of those races.

In city of Atlanta races, the candidate who led the first time won two of those four runoffs. In 2001, Cathy Woolard won the runoff to become City Council president after finishing second in the general election. H. Lamar Willis won the runoff for an at-large council seat that year after finishing second in the general election.

University of Georgia political science professor Charles Bullock, who authored a book on runoffs, says “the bigger your lead, the better your chances of winning the second round.” Candidates who turn around their initial second-place finish were usually close to leading the first time, he said.

Reed believes there’s potential for more votes for him in liberal, predominately white neighborhoods such as Ansley Park, Midtown, the Old Fourth Ward and Virginia-Highland. Norwood beat Reed in most of those areas.

“They put Maynard [Jackson] in office and they’ll put Kasim in office,” said Taylor, who’s leading Reed’s get out the vote effort. “All of those neighborhoods will be the deciding factor.”

Turnout may be higher in District 6, which includes some of those neighborhoods, since there is a runoff for the open City Council seat. Norwood led Reed by about a 3-1 margin in the district.

“That’s the big battleground,” Levit agreed.

Reed believes another factor in his favor is the support of former mayoral candidate Lisa Borders. The outgoing City Council president has endorsed Reed and had her strongest showings in some intown neighborhoods. She also has long-standing ties with gay and lesbian leaders.

An estimated 10 percent to 15 percent of city voters are gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgender, community leaders say. Norwood and Reed have held numerous events with LGBT groups in the past two weeks. During one debate, Reed confronted Norwood about her missing a vote in 2006 to allow gay and lesbian city employees to make their partners pension beneficiaries. Norwood says she did not intentionally miss the vote. Reed has faced criticism for saying at one forum he’s in favor of “civil unions” when asked if he supports “marriage equality.”

Norwood officials are looking for votes in areas with large concentrations of voters and strong histories of high voter turnout. They’re also focusing on neighborhoods with black voters in low-income neighborhoods who are dissatisfied with the current course of the city. Most of the Norwood campaign stops to which reporters have been invited are located in those neighborhoods. At one stop in Oakland City, Norwood drove six smiling children in her green Buick as community leaders showed the media rows of run-down, abandoned homes.

“What if a child walks past this and falls,” said Norwood supporter Diane Trimble, pointing at an uncovered water meter. “It’s almost like the city has forgotten certain areas.”

The Reed camp is hoping black ministers and pastors who’ve rallied behind him in recent weeks can turn out the black vote. For example, the Rev. Raphael Warnock, a former Borders supporter now with Reed, is working with the outreach arm of the famed church he pastors, Ebenezer Baptist, to mobilize voters. The preachers are being careful not to make endorsements from their pulpits, which violates their tax-exempt status.

Last Sunday, Reed said, he appeared at five churches with predominately black congregations. The candidate plans a similar tour today.

Levit said if a candidate gets more than 52 percent of the vote Tuesday, “it will be a blowout.”

“We’re headed for a very, very tight race,” said Levit.

Staff writer Ernie Suggs contributed to this article.

On TV

» WSB-TV has scheduled a debate at 6:30 p.m. Sunday between Atlanta mayoral candidates Mary Norwood and Kasim Reed.