Natural gas prices drop substantially over a few weeks

Thursday, August 14, 2008

Earlier this summer, when a co-op gas marketer refused to offer long-term contracts to customers, some of them bolted to marketers who would.

Time proved Coweta-Fayette EMC and its gas company right.

COST PER YEAR
  • August 2008
    Hi: $1,292.21 (Georgia Natural Gas)
    Low: $1,242.11 (Stream Energy)
  • August 2007
    Hi: $1,191.54 (Infinite)
    Low: $1,090.02 (Catalyst)
  • July 2008
    Hi: $1,586.05 (Catalyst)
    Low: $1,464.16 (Coweta-Fayette)
  • July 2007
    Hi: $1,170.32 (GasKey)
    Low: $1,142.36 (Catalyst)
— Source: PSC

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Twelve-month contracts for natural gas are now selling for between $200 and $300 less than they were just a few weeks ago, according to estimates put out by the state Public Service Commission.

Gas marketer prices, although still higher than last summer, have tumbled over the past several weeks, following a steep decline in wholesale prices at the Louisiana distribution hub serving Georgia.

In late June and early July, those prices were more than $1.30 per therm — nearly as high as they were after Hurricane Katrina pounded the Gulf Coast and its supplies.

Georgia retail rates posted then were the highest of the year — even higher than in the post-Katrina winter.

Wholesale prices are now between 80 and 90 cents per therm and look to be headed lower.

Variable rate plans, which float monthly based on the price of gas, are also down from June and July.

The surge in early summer prices was unusual.

Although locked-in contracts are often more expensive in general than variable rate plans — they’re a form of insurance — they’re usually the cheapest in the spring and early summer and again in the fall.

That’s because people aren’t using the gas for heating in those seasons and because power companies haven’t begun sucking gas to meet summer cooling demand.

This year, though, the May and June prices were worse than they were in winter.

Natural gas prices had surged roughly in tandem with oil prices.

They began falling when oil did.

Wholesale prices had settled to about 90 cents per therm in late July, when marketers set their prices.

Dan Hart, chief operating officer for Coweta-Fayette Natural Gas, said the company didn’t offer long-term contracts in June because the prices didn’t make sense.

June wholesale prices were nearly as high as January prices trading in the futures market, he said.

The third quarter of the year, beginning in July, typically delivers a price dip, he said.

“We hadn’t seen that low yet,” Hart said.

“Honestly, I don’t think we’ve hit the third quarter low yet.”

Wholesale prices are now even lower than when Georgia marketers set their August prices. Marketers post their new prices on the fifth of every month.

Another surge in oil prices, or a Gulf Coast hurricane, could drive prices back up.

But “it still has the potential to go down some more,” Hart said.

Good news, bad news

Patience can be a virtue (or a gamble) for natural gas consumers. Those who signed 12-month, fixed-rate contracts in August paid significantly less than those who locked in in July, but rates could keep dropping. Below were the most expensive and the cheapest options in the months listed for the typical customer, who uses 717 therms annually, according to the PSC.

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