Home > Political Insider > Archives > 2008 > December > 01 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USPoll: Chambliss with ‘solid’ lead, but…
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Public Policy Polling of North Carolina has released a final poll of the U.S. Senate runoff, giving Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss a “solid” 53 percent lead over Democrat Jim Martin, who weighs in at 46 percent.
But PPP also attaches a caveat.
The survey of 1,276 likely voters was conducted Nov. 29 and 30, and has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.7 percent.
Here are two cogent paragraphs from the PPP analysis:
Chambliss is up 71-28 on Jim Martin with whites. For Martin to win the runoff with that performance, the electorate would have to be 34% African American. Given that it was only 30% for the general election with Barack Obama at the top of the ballot and that early voting was less than 23% black, that does not seem particularly likely….
Martin leads with voters under 45, but trails 68-31 with voters over 65. Senior citizens are the most reliable group of voters and likely to make up a larger portion of the electorate than they did on November 4th for this comparatively low interest election. That’s just one more hurdle to climb for the Democratic challenger.
But here’s a statement that Tom Jensen, communications director for PPP, posted on the firm’s blog, noting the difficulty of polling a post-holiday runoff:
So we have data from the poll this weekend suggesting black turnout could be as high as 33-34% and turnout from early voting suggesting it could be as low as 23-24%.
Our poll the previous weekend, not over the holiday, looked like blacks would make up 27-29% of the electorate and we’re sticking with that for our projection.
But because we’ve seen evidence to the contrary in either direction, really nothing between a 2-point Martin victory and a 16-point Chambliss victory would absolutely shock me. That’s just the nature of the uncertainly with an election like this.
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Comments
By Copyleft
December 1, 2008 2:25 PM | Link to this
Well, I’ve certainly gotten more robo-calls and heard more commercials about Saxby than I have about Martin.
Some fluff about “Georgia values” and “stopping the Democrats”… but, interestingly, not one word about Saxby himself. I guess even his most fervent supporters don’t actually want to talk about the guy.
By JW
December 1, 2008 2:44 PM | Link to this
Saxby in a landslide-take it to the bank. Georgians clearly understand the peril our country faces in a 60+ liberal lefty U.S. Senate configuration. We need a hint of balance and Georgian-Americans will deliver. Rest easy and take a breath. (Martin needs a new haircut)
By jacksmith
December 1, 2008 2:49 PM | Link to this
WE HAVE MORE TO DO:
Democrat Jim Martin is in a runoff against Bush Republican Saxby Chambliss for the Senate seat from Georgia. Bush’s Saxby Chambliss voted against spending a few measly dollars to provide health care coverage for Georgia, and Americas needy children. But he supported wasting hundreds of billions of your dollars, and the life BLOOD of Americas finest on an unnecessary war in Iraq.
At a time when 47 million of you have no health insurance coverage, and over 100 million of you with insurance are just one major illness away from complete financial destruction. Bush and Saxby Chambliss voted to make the heart break of bankruptcy relief even harder for all of you to use.
You see, Bush and Saxby Chambliss, and his family don’t have to worry about their health care coverage. They have the finest health care coverage your tax money can buy for them. Courtesy of you. The American Tax payer. In fact, no one but the super rich can afford the health care coverage you the tax payer provide for Saxby Chambliss, and his family for FREE! with your tax dollars.
He supposedly works for you. But he doesn’t think you and your family should have access to the type of taxpayer supported FREE health care that you provide for him, and his loved ones for FREE!. Doesn’t that just make you BURRING MAD!
Vote for JIM MARTIN for US senator from Georgia. Vote for JIM Martin who will be on your side. Vote for JIM MARTIN who will work with President Obama and a majority congress for you. Vote for JIM MARTIN most of all for your-self, your family’s, friends, and loved ones. Vote for JIM MARTIN for a better America, and a better World.
Don’t let Saxby Chambliss make a chump out of you by tricking you into voting against your own best interest. Saxby chambliss is NOT! on your side. He’s not one of you. He is on George Bush’s side. And we all know what a catastrophe the Bush Chambliss administration has been the past 8 years.
Contact all your family and friends and do every thing you can to see to it that JIM MARTIN and GEORGIANS! take that senate seat back for Georgia, and America. No matter where you live in America. This is important to you. President Obama will need all the help, and power you can give him to try and fix this catastrophic mess that the Corrupt Bush Chambliss administration has created.
As I said before you will have to vote in overwhelming numbers to overcome the Bush Chambliss “Let Them Eat Cake” vote fraud machine. Vote early if you can. Then help everyone you can get to the polls and vote for JIM MARTIN. You and your loved ones don’t have to be Saxby Chambliss’s victims anymore.
I know you will get it done. Just like you did for President Obama.
God bless all of you
jacksmith - WORKING CLASS… :-)
By againdumbness
December 1, 2008 2:53 PM | Link to this
How many jobs has Saxby brought to Georgia. How much money have we gotten from Washingto under Saxby? What alternative energy policy has Saxby sponsored or authored while in Washington. Saxby Chambliss has done one thing well. Lined his pockets with lobbyists and special interest groups. He is a friend to big corporations that take out bailout money and than drink champagne and eat caviar. If the hillbillys and rednecks want Chambliss rather than a job..We will be the laughing stock of the entire country if we let this happen.
By Grits and Gravy
December 1, 2008 3:05 PM | Link to this
Hey Dumbness: Hillbillies and rednecks have a vote worth just as much as the liberal “arts and croissants” crowd. Get over yourself.
Hey Jacksmith or is that Jack@$$: Your flight back up north is waiting. Who paid for your trip down here to spew your crap on our AJC.com? Tell BHO hello when you see him tomorrow night. Loser!
By brian hansen
December 1, 2008 3:17 PM | Link to this
News flash for ya, Jacksmith, the leading sponsor of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (aka BAPCA) was none other than your vice president, Delaware Senator Joe Biden. Why would a Democrat who supposedly champions the rights and needs of the people lead the charge to enact some of the most draconian changes (within the bankruptcy law realm we refer to BAPCA as the “No Creditor Left Behind Act) to the bankruptcy laws ever seen?? Because most of the major banks and credit card issuers are incorporated, organized and in some cases headquartered in Delaware and Joe’s in their pockets. As a bankruptcy attorney, I cannot go into court and argue a client’s position when that client had something to do with the wrong—it’s known within legal jurisprudence circles as the “clean hands” principle. I suggest you employ that principle here. Don’t express crocodile outrage toward Saxby when it was your very own party leader who helped enact this abomination. I am seriously, do you think Martin’s election would make a difference when the Vice President-elect (and soon-to-be President of the Senate) was the very person seeking to bring to fruition the evil you lay at Chamblis’ feet? I DON’T THINK SO.
It is demagoguery like yours that makes me shutter in fear about the future of our republic.
By Troglodyke
December 1, 2008 3:30 PM | Link to this
I am a Buckley supporter, so I guess my vote on Election day helped this runoff to happen.
I will vote for Martin tomorrow, but it won’t matter. Chambliss will win easily.
Why? FEAR, plain and simple. Instill FEAR into the hearts of your base, and they will come out in droves, or else DIRE consequenses will result! Why, didn’t you hear? Martin will raise your taxes a billion percent! You’ll be wiped out!
Not only that, but he and his new bud Obama want to legalize billions of illegals! Just because!
They’ll take away your jobs! They’ll sic nasty dogs on you! They’ll take away your gods!
Why, a vote for Martin is a vote for abortions! And gay people! And heathenism! And it will mean any talk of god will be completely eradicated from Georgia! Oh, the HORROR!!!!
Just pump up the ignorant masses with fear, especially regarding religion, and Saxby will slide in handily.
This is Georgia, after all.
By Patrick
December 1, 2008 3:54 PM | Link to this
I pulled the lever (tapped the screen?) for Martin but expect Saxby to clear somewhere in the neighborhood of 53%. We’ll see if that figure holds. He’s not being tough enough during this final stretch…dirty politics wins races in GA. He should be beating Saxby over the head constantly over veterans issues and his deferments during Vietnam.
By wazzucoug
December 1, 2008 3:56 PM | Link to this
Nice tag, Troglodyke. I know what a troglodyTe is (one who lives in solitude, a caveman) but I’m not sure what a troglodyKe is. Is that a orientation-challenged caveman?
I don’t believe you. There is NO WAY that someone could have been moved to vote for Allen Buckley and then will vote for Jim Martin. It defies logic to the point where the person claiming to do as much comes across as nothing more than a liar.
Allen Buckley stood for the proposition of less government, spending today with an eye toward tomorrow (I believe he put as “living for today and tomorrow, instead of living for today to [sic—grammatically, he should have used the word “at”] the detriment of tomorrow.” If you honestly believed in and subscribed to this principle, there simply is no way you can vote for someone whose track record has been to tax and impose further regulation. There’s just no way you can do that unless you are disingenuous to YOURSELF.
Please, stop the lie.
By South Ga Farmer
December 1, 2008 4:16 PM | Link to this
6 years ago Saxby promised the small farmers of Georgia help with the farm bill, I voted for him. He went to Washington became the head of the Ag committee, wrote the farm bill & took care of the Sugar farmers in Florida and the Corn farmers in the Midwest. The little farmers got the shaft & the big money got more money.Chambliss is just another crook we sent to Washington.
By Beth
December 1, 2008 4:17 PM | Link to this
Saxby Chambliss is SLIME.. Jim Martin is a good HONEST man.. Martin 08.
By catlady
December 1, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this
Amen, copyleft. I would love to hear some Saxby supporter talking about SAXBY rather than Martin.
Anyone who has taken elementary (high school) psychology can see clear through Saxby’s campaign points. Unfortunately there are a LOT of folks who have not passed this elementary level class.
Sad, so sad, that folks will vote in direct opposition to their interests as long as you fear-monger enough. EVEN SAXBY DOES NOT TALK ABOUT HIS “ACHIEVEMENTS!” All he can try to do is make up bogus claims (do some fact checking, friends) to try to scare voters away from Martin. Saxby Chambliss is the one who has shown we cannot trust him. Look at his record of voting against the interests of Georgians (unless you are the big money, agribusiness or sugar mill types).
By catlady
December 1, 2008 4:29 PM | Link to this
brian hansen, unless you are a HOUSE you do not shutter. You shudder. Please.
By Athens, GA
December 1, 2008 4:30 PM | Link to this
It is pretty amazing to hear a former State Representative talk more about his achievements in office than a sitting U.S. Senator.
By wazzucoug
December 1, 2008 4:31 PM | Link to this
Nice tag, Troglodyke. I know what a troglodyTe is (one who lives in solitude, a caveman) but I’m not sure what a troglodyKe is. Is that a orientation-challenged caveman?
I don’t believe you. There is NO WAY that someone could have been moved to vote for Allen Buckley and then will vote for Jim Martin. It defies logic to the point where the person claiming to do as much comes across as nothing more than a liar.
Allen Buckley stood for the proposition of less government, spending today with an eye toward tomorrow (I believe he put as “living for today and tomorrow, instead of living for today to [sic—grammatically, he should have used the word “at”] the detriment of tomorrow.” If you honestly believed in and subscribed to this principle, there simply is no way you can vote for someone whose track record has been to tax and impose further regulation. There’s just no way you can do that unless you are disingenuous to YOURSELF.
Please, stop the lie.
By wazzucoug
December 1, 2008 4:32 PM | Link to this
Nice tag, Troglodyke. I know what a troglodyTe is (one who lives in solitude, a caveman) but I’m not sure what a troglodyKe is. Is that a orientation-challenged caveman?
I don’t believe you. There is NO WAY that someone could have been moved to vote for Allen Buckley and then will vote for Jim Martin. It defies logic to the point where the person claiming to do as much comes across as nothing more than a liar.
Allen Buckley stood for the proposition of less government, spending today with an eye toward tomorrow (I believe he put as “living for today and tomorrow, instead of living for today to [sic—grammatically, he should have used the word “at”] the detriment of tomorrow.” If you honestly believed in and subscribed to this principle, there simply is no way you can vote for someone whose track record has been to tax and impose further regulation. There’s just no way you can do that unless you are disingenuous to YOURSELF.
Please, stop the lie.
By catlady
December 1, 2008 4:39 PM | Link to this
wazzycoug, it is CORRECT to say “to the detriment”. Your suggestion of at the detriment of is incorrect. Also, please push the button ONCE and wait. The elevator does not some any faster if you push the button repeatedly, repeatedly, repeatedly.
By Daniel
December 1, 2008 4:43 PM | Link to this
Martin’s supports sound like bolshevik propagandists… ignor the facts and smear the opponet.
By Daniel
December 1, 2008 4:44 PM | Link to this
Martin’s supports sound like Bolshevik propagandists… ignore the facts and smear the opponent.
By AARP--- Against Saxby
December 1, 2008 4:52 PM | Link to this
An additional 23 percent sales tax is not a good idea for senior citizens on fixed incomes. We must say NO to Saxby’s 23% additional sales tax.
By brian hansen
December 1, 2008 5:10 PM | Link to this
Sorry Catlady, sometimes my fingers can’t keep up with my stream of thought. The substance remains, however. I shudder at the proposition that the vast majority of voters are not exercising an informed vote because they allow themselves to be unduly influenced by the popular media.
If you are willing to castigate Chamblis for his purported lack of accomplishments, then you shouldn’t be willing to overlook Martin’s “accomplishments” when those feats are exactly worth bragging about. You may lament the GOP’s ads, but the points asserted therein are generally well-supported. There are several independent, politically neutral (not to mention several liberal) sources that will verify his voting record and history of speeches (see, e.g., GeorgiaPIRG, OnTheIssues.org, SmartVote.org, and others ). The reason Martin (as Patrick bemoans above) isn’t hitting back: sometimes it’s hard to defend the indefensible. He is a liberal/populist by anyone’s measure and that type of record isn’t popular in statewide races.
By wazzucoug
December 1, 2008 5:16 PM | Link to this
Catlady,
I didn’t know I was doing something more than once. Technology being absolutely foolproof, I can only offer my apologies for hitting the button twice. I’m at a loss, however, to know what it means for an elevator to “some”.
And according to my copy of Strunk and White’s “The Elements of Style”, “to” is incorrect.
By JW
December 1, 2008 5:26 PM | Link to this
AARP:
The 23% sales tax mumbo jumbo is a trick intended to confuse the uninformed voter. You and I both know that the 23% tax would be a national sales tax to REPLACE THE INCOME TAX and burdensome filing of same. If one cheated to win the game did they really win? Why are senior citizens on fixed incomes the only target of this lie? Everybody would pay the new tax and nobody the income tax. Are you not equally concerned for the young mothers or the middle aged undereducated or the web footed bald fat guys? What a pile of poop…typical for a lying and deceitful liberal hack.
By catlady
December 1, 2008 6:10 PM | Link to this
Mea culpa to all. (and to all a good night?)
I don’t say that Martin is the ideal candidate. He is just an improvement from Saxby. I refuse to reward Saxby for his NON representation of me and my interests and those of the “little people” I know. I doubt Martin can do worse. If he does, we vote him out. But Saxby has had his chance, and he flubbed it, big time. Or whatever the golfing term for swinging and missing is.
By Clark Howard
December 1, 2008 6:15 PM | Link to this
8% sales tax in Atlanta plus an additional 23% Saxby tax equals a 31% total sales tax. $31.00 tax on a $100.00 purchase. $6,510 tax on a $21,000 automobile. Saxby wants to rip-off the middle class again.
By Larry Linn
December 1, 2008 6:57 PM | Link to this
The Bush, Chaney, and Gram Republicans put our country on the edge of bankruptcy. Case closed!
By Larry Linn
December 1, 2008 7:37 PM | Link to this
Palin is running for President. That results in eight years of Obama.
By Bill From Buffalo
December 1, 2008 8:37 PM | Link to this
You know what’s funny.. . the Republicans are gonna bamboozle Georgia voters with their “hi-tax” cowchip talk. I can remember when the top 1% wage earners in this country paid 85% Fed taxes on their earnings. They now pay 35%. They’re complaining cause they don’t want to pay what they paid under Reagan; 50%. Are you in the top 1%? I don’t think so cause they’re busy right now at their country clubs basking in 35% heaven. They say it isn’t fair but they are bleeding us dry. I’m talking to you, you gun-waving-flag-waving-good-ol-boy, I’m with you here! I’m lower-middle class, watch NASCAR (whatever happened to Jeremy Mayfield anyway?), wonder if I’m gonna be working tomorrow, going to 2nd hand stores for clothes, etc… I KNOW YOU, YOU KNOW ME. Don’t listen to the Republican cowchip talk cause it’s just that, cowchips, housechips, bullchips. They make their money off OUR BACKBREAKING LABOR. Don’t listen to their whining about taxes, they don’t wanna pay what they truly owe. A vote for these rich folks only sinks us further into a ten trillion+ dollar deficit.
Rich Republicans caused this mess. Don’t believe the horse-hockey (that’s what we call it up here) about Freddy-Fannie-IndyMAC being forced into loaning money, that another “chip”. Their fancy-smancy greedy hands loaned money to people they knew couldn’t pay! They were not forced to do it; they did it because it lined their pockets as commission! Now the whole country is feeling the pain of their greed. DO NOT BELIEVE RICH REPUBLICANS.
God as my witness, do the right thing and send these people a message. Follow your conscious.. .
By Patrick
December 2, 2008 11:21 AM | Link to this
Anyone who thinks you can run a country on a sales tax needs their head checked. What happens during a recession (such as now)? People shop alot less. The result is the feds take in less money and cut services at the time when people need them the most. Oh and all the crap about how you wont pay income tax….what about the thousands who already are exempt due to low incomes? Its a TAX HIKE on them duh. College students would get the total shaft as they couldnt exempt their tuition and would have to pay a huge sales tax on their textbooks, tuition and ramen. Yeah, lets tax the Jesus out of college students to make disincentives for them to educate themselves and become more useful, productive citizens. Totally makes sense!
By lost in space. GOP
December 2, 2008 12:49 PM | Link to this
The GOP has force us to have to go to VAT Value added Taxes. Bush has mess up this thing for us for next 50 years. you clown will see what (W) has done and you still vote Republican . What will it take for southerner to see the light. GOP are for the rich. you clown never learn . you are doing the same thing you did during the civil war fighting for the rich and not the middle class. most don’t make 50k a year and they vote like they make 400k. do the math you will lose most under the GOP. The GOP has taken this country under no bone about it and most of them in power were republican the last eight years clueless!!!! They are the WMD’s