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Friday, November 28, 2008
Early, early poll: 2010 governor’s race
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
By JAMES SALZER jsalzer@ajc.com
Former Gov. Roy Barnes has said he’s not running for governor in 2010 when Gov. Sonny Perdue ends his second and final term, but pollsters apparently don’t believe him.
Public Policy Polling of North Carolina came out with a poll this week matching up the Democrat Barnes with two Republicans who have started raising money for the race, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine. It also matched the two with another Democrat who is occasionally mentioned as a potential candidate, U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall of Middle Georgia.
The poll put Cagle up on Barnes 44-43, and Oxendine up 43-42. Against Marshall, the margin was greater for the Republicans: Cagle 44-39, and Oxendine 44-38.
“It’s hard to decide whether this data provides good news for Barnes or not,” the polling firm’s analysis said. “On the one hand, any time a Democrat is polling close in this Republican state, it’s a good thing for that individual.
“At the same time, numbers at this stage are a function of name recognition more than anything else and you might expect Barnes to have the lead in these hypothetical match ups by virtue of his higher profile from his previous tenure in the governor’s office.
“The other preliminary conclusion you can make from this data is that there is no difference in general election viability between Cagle and Oxendine on the Republican side.”
Barnes doesn’t have the same name identification he had six years ago, when he lost to Perdue. Plus Cagle and Oxendine have been working double-time to boost their name recognition among voters. For instance, thousands of runners who ran the Atlanta marathon and half-marathon Thanksgiving morning ran by a new billboard featuring Cagle on Peachtree Street. And the lieutenant governor ran TV ads touting a web site he set up on wasteful spending in state government. Oxendine, meanwhile, has been showing up on local TV for years any time there is a major fire.
The poll also doesn’t include several Democrats and Republicans likely to make the race. Former Adjutant General David Poythress has already started raising money for the contest as a Democrat. Another Democrat, Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond is thinking about the race. Secretary of State Karen Handel, Cobb County Commission Chairman Sam Olens and U.S. Reps. Lynn Westmoreland and Jack Kingston have also been mentioned as potential candidates on the Republican side.
—Jim Galloway will be back next week.
