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Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Lessons for aspiring judges
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
By David Simpson dsimpson@ajc.com
How hard is it to unseat an incumbent Superior Court judge?
Two failed attempts from 2004 and this year in DeKalb offer a sobering comparison for any future challenger.
In 2004, Celeste Brewer ran against Superior Court Judge Cynthia Becker. Brewer declined to criticize Becker in the typically gentle judicial campaign. She drew 22 percent of the vote.
In 2008, Tom Stubbs ran against Superior Court Judge Linda Hunter. He launched his campaign with an endorsement from former Gov. Roy Barnes, raised more than twice as much money as Hunter as of Sept. 30 and attacked Hunter’s courtroom demeanor and decisions. Near the end, Hunter apologized for ordering her husband released from jail in 2005 after his arrest on a minor trespassing charge. (The charge was later dropped.) The result: Stubbs got 30 percent of the vote.
DeKalb pols likely would point out that Stubbs is white and Hunter is an African-American woman in a county where blacks outnumber whites and female voters outnumber males.
But Brewer is African-American, and Becker is white. Strictly by the numbers, incumbency was more powerful than race and gender.
Challengers might take heart from Harris County, Texas, where 22 incumbent civil and criminal judges were unseated in the general election, according to the Houston Chronicle.
But the biggest factor in the Texas revolution won’t apply in Georgia’s nonpartisan judicial elections. The successful Harris County challengers all ran as Democrats and defeated incumbent Republicans.
Only four Republicans survived the onslaught. What was their secret? According to the Chronicle, “The most common theory is that voters were wary of Democrats with uncommon names.” The losers’ names were Ashish Mahendru, Mekisha Murray, Andres Pereira and Goodwille Pierre.
So two quick lessons for would-be judges. When you see an incumbent judge, talk about the joys of retirement. And if you have a funny name, start telling your friends to call you “Mack.”
Jim Galloway is taking a few days off.
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Exit notes
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Getting ready to shut down for a long (as possible) Thanksgiving weekend. Friends will fill in as needed, so don’t stop checking in.
But before I go:
— Looking ahead, Public Policy Polling of North Carolina says U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson may have some shoring up to do before he runs for re-election in 2010.
The survey firm found:
…a high level of ambivalence toward first term Senator Johnny Isakson from Georgia voters. Only 30% of voters approve of his job performance but there isn’t a large mass that disapproves either- a plurality have no opinion of him one way or the other.
Isakson has not done much to appeal across party lines during his first term. His approval among Democrats is just 8%. The problems with the economy may be hurting his appeal as well. Among voters who name it as their top issue just 27% approve of him with 29% disapproving.
The firm conducted two hypothetical match-ups with two Democrats: Isakson (45 percent) vs. state Attorney General Thurbert Baker (39 percent); and Isakson (47 percent) vs. U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall of Macon (38 percent).
Stats are from the same PPP survey that showed, earlier this week, a widening of Saxby Chambliss’ lead in the U.S. Senate runoff.
Says PPP:
The question of course is whether Democrats will strongly contest the seat. They don’t have the deepest bench in Georgia, but Jim Martin’s success has shown that even a relative obscure candidate can compete in the state under the right circumstances.
— As of Tuesday, after a full week of advance voting in all counties, 236,992 Georgia voters have cast early ballots for the Dec. 2 runoff. Of those, 53,374 have been African-American.
That’s 22.5 percent of the total vote, which lags about 14 points behind advance voting in the general election. Not great for Democrat Jim Martin in the U.S. Senate race. White males, who form a huge bloc of support for Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss, have cast nearly 38 percent of advance ballots.
— Republican interests have poured millions into direct mail for this runoff — a sign of how important they consider a 41st seat in the U.S. Senate. Proof was in the mailbox on Tuesday evening. Five multi-color mailers, all from the GOP or their surrogates.
It’s all anti-Martin. None of the pieces emphasize Chambliss’ positives:
— The Georgia Republican Party, which places Martin’s mug next to a screaming Howard Dean;
— Something called the Employee Freedom Action Committee, which accuses the Democrat of supporting “big labor boss legislation that will throw more Georgians out of work.”
— The National Republican Senate Committee, which (incorrectly) accuses Martin of opposing making solicitation of child prostitution a felony;
— Another NRSC piece that says Martin “supports tax hikes on those making less than $75,000 a year”;
— and Americans for Job Security, whose mailer includes a cigar-smoking fellow (the stogie is presumably a short-hand reference to a labor boss) noting Martin’s willingness to let President Bush’s tax cuts expire.
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You can find out who paid for your runoff candidate — but only hours before the vote
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A quirk in state law — no, “quirk” is the wrong word. An advantageous aspect of campaign finance law allows runoff candidates for state positions to hold back the identities of their campaign donors until midnight before the Tuesday election.
It does not affect federal contests, such as the U.S. Senate race, my AJC colleague James Salzer says. But it does affect the Public Service Commission runoff between Republican Lauren McDonald, formerly known as “Bubba,” and Democrat Jim Powell.
Both have been raising and spending money. But under the law, candidates in runoffs have to file their only pre-election disclosure for the extra month of fund-raising six days before the vote. However, the state allows a five-day grace period. Most candidates take it.
So McDonald and Powell can wait until 11:59 p.m. on the Monday night before the election to file their reports, and let you know who’s paying for their campaigns.
As of the last report Oct. 25, McDonald had raised about $146,250, much of it from people in utility businesses that are regulated by the Public Service Commission. Powell had collected about $61,000, with unions being major donors.
