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DEL.ICIO.USChambliss slips below 50 percent
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
6:30 a.m.: Republican Saxby Chambliss continues to cling to a slim lead in the U.S. Senate race. A handful of missing boxes in both Carroll and DeKalb counties may give us the answer of whether we have a Dec. 2 runoff. Democrat Jim Martin is at 46.8 percent.
Here are the latest numbers, with 96 percent of precincts reporting:
Saxby Chambliss — 49.8%
Jim Martin — 46.8%
Allen Buckley — 3.4%
FYI, Martin pulled 42.3 percent in the 2006 race for lieutenant governor.
12:48 a.m.: In the last 90 minutes, as the vote in metro Atlanta has rolled in, Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss has dropped from 55 percent to 51.2 percent.
In total votes, his lead has been cut nearly in half, and is now 187,513 ballots.
But even as the race tightens, the parties are breaking up. This is from my AJC colleague Stacy Shelton:
“Now that Obama has spoken, this place is clearing out. Martin is unlikely to come out again. He’s no longer here and the Park Tavern is getting ready to kick us all out.”
12:24 a.m.: Unless there are some last-minute swings in the vote-counting this morning, Tuesday didn’t bring much change at the statehouse, according to my AJC colleague James Salzer.
Rep. Jeanette Jamieson (D-Toccoa), a 24-year-old House veteran, lost to 28-year-old Republican business owner Michael Harden. Jamieson had been damaged by the disclosure that she owed the state more than $45,000 in back taxes.
Another North Georgia Democrat, Rep. Charles Jenkins of Blairsville, was also headed for a loss, and a third, Rep. Rick Crawford (D-Cedartown) may have held on by the skin of his teeth.
A few House Republicans were in tight races late, but there didn’t appear to be any major surprises.
Rep. John Heard (R-Lawrenceville) initially appeared to beat Lawrenceville lawyer Lee Thompson. But the latest Secretary of State count shows him losing the race. Also, Rep. Allen Freeman (R-Macon) was slightly behind former Twiggs County Commission Chairman James “Bubber” Epps with a few precincts yet to be counted.
Democrat Pat Dooley appears to have re-won a Cobb County House seat, besting Rep. Steve “Thunder” Tumlin (R-Marietta), according to totals on the secretary of state’s web site.
In the Senate, every incumbent with a challenger won handily.
12:15 a.m.: The 8th District race was the only U.S. House contest that Republicans held out hope of picking up this evening, but Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall of Macon appears to have the situation well in hand, leading retired Air Force major general Rick Goddard — 57 percent to 43 percent.
Marshall is even winning Houston County, home to both Goddard and Gov. Sonny Perdue.
11:42 p.m.: In the northern district Public Service Commission race, Republican Lauren “Bubba” McDonald has just slipped below 50 percent in the three-way race.
Which means, if things progress this way through the night, a runoff is in the offing.
McDonald’s at 49.8 percent, Democrat Jim Powell’s at 45.2 percent, and Libertarian Brandon Givens is at 5 percent.
11:42 p.m.: Democrat Jim Martin, the U.S. Senate candidate, will address his supporters at the Park Tavern in 10 minutes, we’re told. With 87 percent of precincts reporting, Republican incumbent Chambliss is more than 360,000 votes ahead, with a 55 percent margin.
Stay tuned. Okay, you’ve waited long enough.
“There are as many as 500,000 votes still outstanding. It’s going to be very close,” Martin said. “It’s probably going to be a long night.”
11:15 p.m.: On the top floor of the Intercontinental Hotel in Buckhead, there is a special suite for U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss, his family and friends.
At about 10:30 p.m. there were about 25 people up there, including the Republican incumbent, his wife Julianne and their grandchildren, Parker, 10, and John Baker, 12 — all watching Fox TV political coverage.
“We’re getting hammered in the House. It looks like we’re going to lose 20 seats,” said Chambliss, who served eight years in the chamber.
Also there were Gov. Sonny Perdue and his wife Mary — And Chambliss’ mother, Emma, who is 91. This is the first time she has attended one of her son’s election night parties. This is, in fact, the first time she has lived in Georgia during one of his campaigns.
She moved here three weeks ago. “I couldn’t vote,” she told my AJC colleague Craig Schneider. “I just hope he’s going to win. That would make this an extra great night.”
But it looks like a long wait. Jim Martin, Chambliss’ Democrat rival, has headed over to the Obama party to shake a few hands — while he also waits to see if we’ll have a second round in the Senate race.
10:30 p.m.: U.S. Rep. John Lewis was just on ABC News:
”Earlier tonight, I was at Ebenezer [Baptist] Church speaking to a group — hundreds or thousands of citizens. When Pennsylvania went over to Barack Obama, I shouted for joy, and I didn’t know I could jump so high. I think I’m going to shed more tears before the night’s over.”
10:06 p.m.: An exit poll of Georgia voters says Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss may have escaped a run-off in the U.S. Senate race.
The poll, commissioned in part by the AJC, puts the race at: Chambliss, 50 percent; Democrat Jim Martin, 45 percent, and Libertarian Allen Buckley, 4 percent.
The survey has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4 percentage points.
Actual returns show Chambliss with a healthy lead — but the large metro Atlanta counties have yet to weigh in. CNN specifically has declined to call the race in Georgia. So has the Associated Press.
The same exit poll shows Republican John McCain winning Georgia with 51 percent of the vote, and Democrat Barack Obama at 47 percent.
9:52 p.m.: Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader of the U.S. Senate, has apparently survived a tough race over Democrat Bruce Lunsford, according to the Lexington Herald-Leader
Says the newspaper:
McConnell, who led in most polls by slim margins down the stretch, seems to have benefited from a strong showing at the top of the ticket in Kentucky by GOP presidential candidate John McCain. He also relied heavily on his seniority and post as Senate Republican leader, which he molded into his major campaign theme…
The race will rank as Kentucky’s most expensive campaign in history and one of its most contentious. By October, McConnell had collected $17.8 million and Lunsford had amassed $7.1 million, of which $5.5 million came out of his own fortune.
9:40 p.m.: According to a final round of exit polls, the victory of Republican John McCain in Georgia may have depended on whether voters thought the economy to be merely bad — or something worse.
Sixty percent of Georgia voters polled named the economy as their No. 1 issue. But those voters split almost evenly between McCain and Democrat Barack Obama.
Of those who judged the economy as “not good,” 63 percent supported McCain.
Those who proclaimed the economy as “poor” went 67 percent for Obama.
Race, of course, can never be ruled out of Southern politics. Of white voters who identified themselves as Democrats, 21 percent voted for McCain. But only 3 percent of white Republicans crossed over to Obama.
Obama won the support of 62 percent who said race of the candidates was an important issue in the election. Of those who said the candidates’ race was not in issue, 54 percent cast ballots for McCain.
8:57 p.m.: Democrat Kay Hagan has ousted Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole in the U.S. Senate race in North Carolina — overcoming a last-minute charge by Dole that she took “godless money.”
Hagan leads Dole, 55 percent to 42 percent, with partial returns from 25 of 100 counties, according to the Raleigh News and Observer. The Associated Press and the major networks, based on returns and exit polls, have given the race to Hagan.
8:21 p.m.: Right now, Saxby Chambliss, the Republican incumbent in the U.S. Senate race, is running more than 4 points — in real votes — behind presidential candidate John McCain in Georgia.
One reason, according to early exit polls, may be the fact that Democrat Jim Martin is running slightly better among white voters than presidential candidate Barack Obama.
Martin is winning 27 percent of the white vote in Georgia, compared to 25 percent for Obama.
The difference could be crucial. Current exit polling shows Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss leading with 49 percent of the vote — not enough to escape a run-off. Martin is running at 46 percent, and Libertarian Allen Buckley at 4 percent.
Among other exit poll findings:
— Young voters, and also new voters, were seeking alternatives to Chambliss. Fifty percent of voters between 18 and 24 are choosing Martin. Among new voters, 58 percent are going to Martin.
—Buckley is showing strongest among new voters as well, at 12 percent. He’s getting 10 percent of those between 18 and 24. Chambliss is winning only 29 percent support from new voters, and 40 percent of the 18- to 24-year-old vote.
— Chambliss is running strongest among white men (72 percent) and among those who named terrorism (84 percent) and energy (74 percent) as their top issues. Martin did best among voters concerned about health care (66 percent) and Iraq (59 percent).
7:17 p.m.: Early Georgia exit polls show Republican John McCain with a slim 50 percent lead in Georgia, with Democrat Barack Obama at 48 percent, and Libertarian Bob Barr at 2 percent.
In the U.S. Senate race, the exit polls Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss headed for a run-off with 49 percent of the vote. Democrat Jim Martin is at 46 percent, and Libertarian Allen Buckley is making a big difference at 4 percent.
Margin of error is plus-or-minus 4 percentage points.
This may change slightly in a final wave of exit polling, but voters appear split by age and race:
— 53 percent of voters 44 and younger voted for Obama;
— 54 percent of voters 45 to 65 and 53 percent of voters over 65 voted for McCain;
— Only 2 percent of African-Americans voted for McCain;
— But 73 percent of white voters in Georgia voted for McCain;
— Late deciders were breaking toward Obama. Of those who decided in October, 56 percent picked Obama, compared with 47% of those who decided earlier.
— Independents were going for McCain 53 to 41 percent;
— Of those who identified themselves as evangelical or born again Christians (36 percent of voters), 84 percent voted for McCain. 11 percent for Obama;
— Obama is running up huge margins in the metro Atlanta counties of Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton, with 71 percent of the votes to McCain’s 23 percent, and in south Georgia with 52 percent to McCain’s 47 percent. McCain did best in north Georgia with 62 percent to Obama’s 35 percent, and in the Atlanta suburbs with 57 percent to Obama’s 41 percent.
— And new voters (12 percent of the total turnout) went heavily for Obama, 64 percent to McCain’s 35 percent.
7:10 p.m.: The Associated Press and other news outlets have called the first results of the election: John McCain is the winner in Kentucky, while Barack Obama has captured Vermont.
Eight electoral votes were at stake in Kentucky, while Obama picks up three from Vermont.
Democrats, meanwhile, have taken one Senate seat away from the Republicans, with Mark Warner defeating Jim Gilmore in Virginia to capture the seat that was held by the retiring Republican John Warner.
In South Carolina, meanwhile, Republican Lindsey Graham — a leading McCain ally and adviser — was re-elected to his Senate seat.
And in Indiana, Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels has been re-elected.
7:03 p.m.: The Associated Press reports that, nationally, Barack Obama was the overwhelming choice of the one in 10 voters who went to the polls for their first time Tuesday — a racially diverse group of mostly twentysomethings, half of whom call themselves Democrats.
One in five of the new voters was black, almost twice the proportion of blacks among voters overall. Another one in five of the new voters was Hispanic. About two-thirds of them were under 30 years old.
These first-time voters, a key element of Obama’s strategy, were turning out for him over Republican John McCain by about a 3-1 margin, according to preliminary exit poll results.
6:54 p.m.: The Fayette County Republican party was bothered by a bipartisan bomb scare today.
The county party received the suspicious package on Monday. But it wasn’t until this morning that GOP officials actually took a look at it and noticed that it came from someone calling himself “Michael the Archangel,” county chairman Josh Bonner told my AJC colleague John Hollis.
Local law enforcement authorities summoned the postmaster and an X-ray machine, to make sure the package wasn’t explosive. Upon opening it, police found threats against Barack Obama, who is not Republican.
Apparently, this Michael the Archangel had mailed similar packages to various GOP posts all across the country.
“It caused a lot of excitement in little ol’ Fayetteville,” Bonner said.
6:40 p.m.: Early exit polling has picked up on some basic differences between the 2004 vote in Georgia and today’s version:
— Whites made up 71 percent of the electorate in ’04, and African-Americans were 25 percent. This year, exit polling is showing 66 percent of voters are white, and 30 percent are black.
— The electorate is indeed younger this year. In 2004, 11 percent were under the age of 30. This year, that number has creeped up to 13 percent.
6:23 p.m.: Politico.com has named Cobb one of 25 counties in the nation to watch closely tonight:
Since 1976, GOP presidential nominees have averaged 62 percent in this populous Atlanta suburb. But polls show McCain running considerably behind that clip in Cobb. McCain isn’t a great fit in the socially conservative county, but there is another factor at play in driving down his numbers: Roughly a fifth of the population is African-American. Then there is the wildcard — the Libertarian nominee, Bob Barr, was once the local congressman.
6:07p.m. A first wave of exit polls has begun to give us a picture of Georgians who’ve cast a ballot in Tuesday’s election — whether today or in 45 days of early voting.
Georgia voters were most concerned about the economy: 60 percent picked it as the No. 1 issue. And 53 percent pronounced themselves “very worried” about the economy.
Terrorism was the first worry of 10 percent, as was health care. Nine percent were concerned with energy issues.
The Associated Press is also reporting that a majority of voters opposed the recent $700 billion financial bailout, with just four in 10 supporting it.
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Comments
By Jeff
November 4, 2008 7:30 PM | Link to this
Jim:
NONE of these races have enough ACTUAL votes in to call.
As you’ll recall, you in the news media tried to do that 4 yrs ago and got bit in the tail. I’d suggest not doing so again until the numbers start shaping up.
By PI$$onaDAWG
November 4, 2008 8:30 PM | Link to this
GREAT the JERRY JERRY JERRY Springer vote is still as STUPID as we all knew. White kids that don’t have a job get to vote. Now, that is the JOKE we have played on ourselves. JERRY JERRY JERRY. STUPID WHITE TRASH with a VOTE.
By sedimenjerry
November 4, 2008 8:51 PM | Link to this
I don’t avoid Chambliss. I also can’t vote yet.
By GodHatesTrash
November 4, 2008 9:06 PM | Link to this
Chickenhawk Chambliss is trash.
He’s perfect for Georgia.
By Churchill
November 4, 2008 9:50 PM | Link to this
I would like someone to go check on Tom Ga Values Hunter. I bet he is not a happy fellow right now. Peace.
By GodHatesTrash
November 4, 2008 10:38 PM | Link to this
Yes We Can
And yes we did.
Without you losers from Georgia.
By pitiful
November 4, 2008 10:50 PM | Link to this
Did John Lewis’ shed a tear for all the unborn children killed by the partial birth policies STRONGLY supported by Obama. Probably not. It is all about race, race, race.
By Aaron Burr V. Mexico
November 5, 2008 12:42 AM | Link to this
Well, that tears it.
We’re definitely leaving the state. If it isn’t Blue at THIS point, it isn’t worth my time.
By Ga Values
November 5, 2008 5:47 AM | Link to this
Churchill 9:50 PM
Can’t win them all but you are the loser because both of us will have a big spending, big government, pro amnesty SOCIALIST for a Senator. Saxby will continue to sell OUR vote to the highest bidder. Try to go to school & graduate from the 9th grade stupid id not the way to grow up.
By Grandpa
November 5, 2008 5:58 AM | Link to this
Pertinent musings! Jay Bookman thinks this victory is like when the federal gunpoints opened up on the confederates at the battle of Shiloh.
What is wrong with that child?
The 65/35 landslide I predicted came true. (electorally). I am the purest purist of the pundantry. I alone (unless you count Rove), have my finger on America’s G spot.
I keep thinking about Palin. What is she to do now? This woman needs the attention. Pity those in her orbit in Alaska now. “Off with their sleds!”.
President Obama. It doesn’t really flow. It sounds unnatural. President McCain sounds better. Lets hope that poetic grace is not a harbinger of political song.
I wonder if Palin is planning her revenge…..
By Ga Values
November 5, 2008 6:09 AM | Link to this
Already Tuesday night, angry conservatives hinted of retaliation against their party leaders.
“Republicans suffered very serious setbacks in the last two years in both the Senate and the House,” said Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), a thorn in McConnel’s side for months. “We have got to clean up, reform and rebuild the Republican Party before we can ask Americans to trust us again. This must begin with either a change of command at the highest levels or our current leaders must embrace a bold new direction.”
“Republicans must admit the Wall Street bailouts were a trillion-dollar bust, and immediately fight for free-market solutions that create jobs and increase freedom,” DeMint said. “This election reflects a failure of Republicans to keep their conservative promises.”
By DMac
November 5, 2008 6:38 AM | Link to this
Why weren’t the early voting totals the first to be released?
Is the Secretary of State’s office responsible for tabulating and releasing the results?
Why has Stewart County (south of Columbus) only reported 71% of it vote total?
By Ga Values
November 5, 2008 8:39 AM | Link to this
http://www.sos.georgia.gov/elections/electionresults/20081104/swfed.htm
By Voters Rights
November 5, 2008 10:07 AM | Link to this
The SoS is not responsible for tabulating the votes. That is a County function, the counties determine when they count early votes. They can not count them before the polls close on election day.
Some counties choose to count the early votes first, then count the individual precincts. Other counties flip the order.
By anne
November 6, 2008 7:52 AM | Link to this
Well I said it before he even won the election. Here he goes ” I may not get it done in a year or even two years or it may take more then one term”. Wake up America we have an president that has no experience. He wants change why is he surrounding himself with the same old Washington people. Mark my words he will be the biggest do NOTHING president we have ever had. Example look at Jimmy Carter. I hope that you all saw the stock market yesterday. It doesn’t seem to be happy about Obama.