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DEL.ICIO.USNail-biter night ahead
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Some last minute Georgia numbers to chew on while you wait for your first exit poll fix:
— A Republican-oriented number cruncher offered this look at early voting, which points to the problem the GOP may face tonight:
In 2004, white Georgians made up 71 percent of the vote. African-Americans made up 25 percent. That’s a 46 point gap. Even so, the spread between George Bush (58 percent) and John Kerry (41 percent) was only 17 points.
In early voting this year, white voters made up 60 percent of the electorate. African-Americans made up 35 percent. The 46 point spread of 2004 has been reduced to 25 points. And that reduction erases 2004 margin between Bush and Kerry.
— As you read this, Barack Obama is probably winning the race in Georgia.
Public Policy Polling, a Raleigh, N.C., outfit, on Monday judged the final outcome of the presidential race in Georgia to be a nail-biter, with Republican John McCain clinging to a small lead of 50 percent to Democrat Barack Obama’s 48 percent.
Among early voters polled, Obama led 52 to 47 percent. McCain has a 54 to 43 percent among those planning to vote today. PPP’s Dean Debnam said the race will hinge on two factors: “The first is whether the Republican turnout effort is strong enough to offset the advantage Obama has built among early voters. The second is whether Obama can win over the last few white voters he needs to beat out McCain.”
The PPP survey is the most extensive of any in this list. It surveyed 1,253 likely voters from Friday to Sunday. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percent.
— InsiderAdvantage puts the presidential race in Georgia marginally closer (McCain, 48%; Obama 47%; Barr, 2%) and — like PPP — has the Senate race headed for a run-off (Saxby Chambliss, 48%; Jim Martin, 43% and Allen Buckley, 2%).
That’s based on 512 registered, likely voters. African-Americans were assumed to constitute 30 percent of the vote. The polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
But IA’s Matt Towery offers this judgment:
Towery said the scope of the problem for the Republican presidential candidate is even clearer in a poll conducted just within the 6th congressional district. It had a smaller sample size - 344 - and a greater margin of error - plus or minus 6 percent. While that poll showed Republican Rep. Tom Price at 60 percent and Democratic challenger Bill Jones at 33 percent, it showed McCain at 55 percent but Obama at 42 percent.
More significantly, the 6th District poll also shows Obama pulling 35 percent of the white vote and 47 percent of the female vote.
“That is very bad news for John McCain and Republicans in general to have a district so overwhelmingly Republican in which Obama is polling 42 percent,” said Towery. “It also suggests that the white vote may be closer than we expect. If that’s indicative of the white vote in the more populated areas that surround metro Atlanta, I’m not sure there’s enough white vote in the rural areas to bring Obama below 28 percent.
“I still think McCain is likely to win Georgia by a smidgen but if my gut is right and blacks are voting beyond 30 percent, then he’s a dead duck.”
— At fivethirtyeight.com, a polling aggregate site that leans slightly Democrat, Nate Silver still says Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss has an 88 percent chance of coming out the winner in the U.S. Senate race. But he also hedges his bet with this, part of a presidential lookahead:
Georgia and New Hampshire are a bit less essential electorally, but they may tell us the most about whether the polls are off in this election. If there’s one state where Obama is likely to overperform his polls, it’s in Georgia, where 35 percent of early voters are African-American, and where almost 30 percent of them did not vote in 2004.
These are the sorts of voters that may erroneously be screened out by “likely voter” models that rely on past voting history. Obama could not only carry the state, but he might help boost Jim Martin to victory in the U.S. Senate race there—giving the Democrats a plausible path to a 60-seat caucus.
— Finally, the Republican-oriented firm of Strategic Vision in Atlanta — which has polled the presidential race by ticket — says McCain/Palin is leading Obama/Biden 50 to 46 percent.
“At this moment Sarah Palin continues to be the most popular of the four candidates,” said SV’s David Johnson. “She draws her biggest support from white male voters and females ages 45 and over as well as social conservatives.”
The SV poll of 800 likely voters has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Johnson says it’s weighted for an African-American turnout of 35 percent.
Comments
By ObamaBiden08
November 4, 2008 10:48 AM | Link to this
They wrote off Georgia as not being a Swing State, and we may end up being the big news makers tonight!
By Henry Gibson
November 4, 2008 10:57 AM | Link to this
I think McCain will still win Georgia.
My concern is that the Senate race will be a run off and the one to determine which party controls the Senate.
Imagine every political hack and their campaign dollars descending on Georgia from now until December.
By ArrestJohnLewis
November 4, 2008 10:59 AM | Link to this
Is that a picture of John Lewis campaigning at a polling place on the front page - Arrest him, that’s illegal!
By Travis
November 4, 2008 12:08 PM | Link to this
It sure is a shame that the election process has turned into a race thing! I wish we would all just vote for what the candidate stands for. And it’s a sad day in America when you have to worry about vandalisim because of the sign in your yard or the sticker on your car. And for the last post, it’s not illegal for a candidatet vote you can bet your a* McCain and Obama will cast their votes.
By DM
November 4, 2008 12:22 PM | Link to this
@ Travis - you don’t read well. The other poster stated that it is illegal for a candidate to campaign at a polling place (which it is). He didn’t say it was illegal for the candidate to vote.
By Denise
November 4, 2008 12:37 PM | Link to this
It really is sad that the middle schools are doing a mock election and kids are voting solely on color. It has caused fights and name bashing throughout the school. Americans should be ashamed of the way they are acting in this election. Over half the people voting don’t even know the issues or why they are even there. Sad….:(
By Travis
November 4, 2008 12:45 PM | Link to this
DM- your correct, my bad. I READ JUST FINE A* H! YOU MUST BE ONE OF THE ONES I HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT F*G WITH THE SIGN IN MY YARD, OR KEYING MY CAR.
By TR
November 4, 2008 12:49 PM | Link to this
Enough of the republicans…maybe the Bush/Cheney 04 stickers will come off bumpers. They have shamed America enough in the past 8 years.
By Larry
November 4, 2008 12:56 PM | Link to this
It is indeed sad to see the racism, hate, and fear raise it’s ugly head in Ga, and the US. But it is real. My daughter in law is a kindergarten teacher, who had a mock election, and exit polls to demonstate to the kids. One of the boys was asked who he voted for, ” the white guy of course”. His parents can be very proud of the job they have done. Go bless us, and help unite America at a time we need it most.
By TS
November 4, 2008 1:00 PM | Link to this
ya out with the republicans and in with something better, Osama?
By JerryT
November 4, 2008 1:14 PM | Link to this
TS, does your Mon know you’re using the computer again?
By JerryT
November 4, 2008 1:15 PM | Link to this
TS, does your Mom know you’re using the computer again?
By Matilda
November 4, 2008 1:21 PM | Link to this
Helpful Tip: To remove stickers from cars without the mess, take your blow dryer to the garage (or use an extension cord) and get it nice & hot. Peels right off, no scraping.
Anyone still sporting a “W” or Bush/Cheney sticker needs to get their head out of their a— and out of the past. Failure is something we can learn from, but bragging about it makes you look stupid.
By TS
November 4, 2008 1:23 PM | Link to this
Jerry T- My mom has been dead for years. You would hate to see what she’d post on here if she wasn’t.
By JudyG
November 4, 2008 1:25 PM | Link to this
Folks, it’s not illegal for someone like John Lewis to be AT the polling places while they are casting a vote or waiting to vote. The ignorance displayed by some of you is astounding.
By Gary
November 4, 2008 1:31 PM | Link to this
Hey Jim you need a disclaimer on the PPP poll. It happens to be a Democratic poll. Of course they are going to show the race close for their man. Also please note people that InsiderAdvantage was wrong in 06 and is now associated with the Daily Kos. I will take my poll news from Rasmussen and TIPP. They were the most accurate in 04 and 06. McCain wins GA by 4-5 points and Saxby is forced into a runoff he will win because the Buckley supporters will never vote for Martin and will in fact sit out the runoff.
By JudyG
November 4, 2008 1:37 PM | Link to this
It’s not “campaigning at the polls” unless someone actually talks about a candidate, so there is NOTHING ILLEGAL about John Lewis being at the polling place to vote. Even if he shakes a few hands and speaks to people. He’s a popular public figure; that’s what he does.
By DM
November 4, 2008 1:47 PM | Link to this
@ Travis - why so hostile? And you don’t need to shout. I just pointed out a simple error and I did not call you any names (as you did me) or curse at you. And no, I’m not one of the “ones” who mess with yard signs or key cars. I leave people’s stuff alone and expect them to leave my stuff alone.
By skell
November 4, 2008 1:51 PM | Link to this
so, black people will vote Democrat just b/c they are black? or they’ll vote Obama just b/c he is? I thought Lester Maddox retired.
By JerryT
November 4, 2008 1:56 PM | Link to this
What would she say about you still acting like a dumbass?
By Travis
November 4, 2008 1:59 PM | Link to this
DM- forgive me. No hostility towards you. Just venting. But I do read good, don’t even wear glasses. We can all get along.
By DM
November 4, 2008 2:02 PM | Link to this
And BTW, Travis, I happen to agree 100% with your earlier statements:
I wish we would all just vote for what the candidate stands for. And it’s a sad day in America when you have to worry about vandalisim because of the sign in your yard or the sticker on your car.
This is why I do not put signs in my yard or stickers on my car (except to support my children who are in the military).
Have a nice day, Travis.
By DM
November 4, 2008 2:08 PM | Link to this
No problem, Travis. And I agree completely with your earlier statements:
I wish we would all just vote for what the candidate stands for. And it’s a sad day in America when you have to worry about vandalisim because of the sign in your yard or the sticker on your car.
This is how I vote. And for the very thing you stated in the second sentence, I do not put signs in my yard or stickers on my car (except in support of my children who are in the military).
Have a nice day, Travis.
By TS
November 4, 2008 2:09 PM | Link to this
Hey DM, I think its JerryT with the chip on his sholder. He’s all hostile towards me, and I havn’t said s*t about him or his mama. And what do you mean still. WTF
By GodHatesTrash
November 4, 2008 2:18 PM | Link to this
Yes We Can
And it looks like we did…
Kudos to my fellow decent Americans, especially those of us in the blogosphere. Our long national nightmare is (almost) over.
We’ve overcome not only the fear-mongering, the hate-mongering, the superstition, and stupidity of Bush and his minions, we’ve overcome the incompetence, cowardice, and censorship of and by the so-called “mainstream media”.
We stood up to them and did their job for them, when they refused to do it. We brought this government down and pointed out the buffoonery and idiocy of their supporters - not them. They sucked up and pandered - not us.
Congratulations.
Keep going though.
The election of Senator Obama as the 44th President of the United States of America will only be a temporary reprieve if we ever rely on people like the Cox sisters and the people in their employ to be the checks and balances on corruption and incompetence they’re supposed to be - they’re not anymore.
Enjoy your victory.
By JerryT
November 4, 2008 2:26 PM | Link to this
I just try to fight prejudice and dumbassedness wherever I can when I have the strength.
By Travis
November 4, 2008 2:34 PM | Link to this
GodHatesTrash- I agree with some/a lot of what you said, but you better watch out when using the word GOD. It seems like he and what he stands for (what this country was founded on)has been banned here in the us. What a shame!!!!!!!!!!!
By TS
November 4, 2008 2:45 PM | Link to this
JerryT- How can you say prejudice? Bet you didn’t know that I’m black? And didn’t vote for Obama. Now who’s the dumbass?
By GodHates Trash
November 4, 2008 2:46 PM | Link to this
If Obama loses it will be because the country is racist and because Bush stole the election.
By Kady
November 4, 2008 3:09 PM | Link to this
Jerry T - I love that word - dumbassedness…I am a true daughter of the South…I was raised to cheer for my team, not try and destroy the other side, As I voted this morning, I had a few tears, not just that I was wishing my vote could be cast for HRC but also that these are two great, well respected men. Let’s put our differences aside, work together to get this country moving again…and try not to continue to pratice dumbassedness….
By Deb
November 4, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this
Wouldn’t it be nice if we were all color-blind and just voted for who we thought would be the best person for the job?
By Deb
November 4, 2008 3:14 PM | Link to this
Wouldn’t it be nice if we were all color-blind and just voted for who we thought would be the best person for the job?
By Whitey Bulger
November 4, 2008 5:35 PM | Link to this
To quote Peter Griffin on the Family Guy, “America sure is a great country….except for the South, of course.”