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Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Short lines not good for GOP
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just ran into a GOP strategist, who agreed that these reports of short lines at the polls today — while good news for Secretary of State Karen Handel — could be a portent of trouble for the Republican campaigns of John McCain and Saxby Chambliss.
The assumption — as posted here earlier — is that Democrats won early voting, and that it’s the GOP task to play catch-up today. No-wait voting could well be a sign that the Republican base may not be showing up. At least not in the numbers needed.
A few notations from elsewhere:
— NYT’s The Caucus has this bit of background:
Voting experts predicted a record [national] turnout of 130 million voters, which would be the highest percentage turnout in a century. It could shatter the previous record of 123.5 million who cast ballots four years ago. If 64 percent of registered voters make their way to the polls, as some predict, it would be the highest percentage since 1908.
— A Washington Post piece on Republicans in Congress trying to stem the tide has this paragraph:
Girding for large losses, Republicans said their incumbents could win if they succeed in establishing an identity independent of President Bush, Sen. John McCain and congressional GOP leaders. “Republican candidates that have established their own personal brand and have framed their races around a personal choice will survive this,” said Ken Spain, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Republicans trying to distance themselves from Bush isn’t news. But McCain?
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Nail-biter night ahead
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Some last minute Georgia numbers to chew on while you wait for your first exit poll fix:
— A Republican-oriented number cruncher offered this look at early voting, which points to the problem the GOP may face tonight:
In 2004, white Georgians made up 71 percent of the vote. African-Americans made up 25 percent. That’s a 46 point gap. Even so, the spread between George Bush (58 percent) and John Kerry (41 percent) was only 17 points.
In early voting this year, white voters made up 60 percent of the electorate. African-Americans made up 35 percent. The 46 point spread of 2004 has been reduced to 25 points. And that reduction erases 2004 margin between Bush and Kerry.
— As you read this, Barack Obama is probably winning the race in Georgia.
Public Policy Polling, a Raleigh, N.C., outfit, on Monday judged the final outcome of the presidential race in Georgia to be a nail-biter, with Republican John McCain clinging to a small lead of 50 percent to Democrat Barack Obama’s 48 percent.
Among early voters polled, Obama led 52 to 47 percent. McCain has a 54 to 43 percent among those planning to vote today. PPP’s Dean Debnam said the race will hinge on two factors: “The first is whether the Republican turnout effort is strong enough to offset the advantage Obama has built among early voters. The second is whether Obama can win over the last few white voters he needs to beat out McCain.”
The PPP survey is the most extensive of any in this list. It surveyed 1,253 likely voters from Friday to Sunday. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 2.8 percent.
— InsiderAdvantage puts the presidential race in Georgia marginally closer (McCain, 48%; Obama 47%; Barr, 2%) and — like PPP — has the Senate race headed for a run-off (Saxby Chambliss, 48%; Jim Martin, 43% and Allen Buckley, 2%).
That’s based on 512 registered, likely voters. African-Americans were assumed to constitute 30 percent of the vote. The polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
But IA’s Matt Towery offers this judgment:
Towery said the scope of the problem for the Republican presidential candidate is even clearer in a poll conducted just within the 6th congressional district. It had a smaller sample size - 344 - and a greater margin of error - plus or minus 6 percent. While that poll showed Republican Rep. Tom Price at 60 percent and Democratic challenger Bill Jones at 33 percent, it showed McCain at 55 percent but Obama at 42 percent.
More significantly, the 6th District poll also shows Obama pulling 35 percent of the white vote and 47 percent of the female vote.
“That is very bad news for John McCain and Republicans in general to have a district so overwhelmingly Republican in which Obama is polling 42 percent,” said Towery. “It also suggests that the white vote may be closer than we expect. If that’s indicative of the white vote in the more populated areas that surround metro Atlanta, I’m not sure there’s enough white vote in the rural areas to bring Obama below 28 percent.
“I still think McCain is likely to win Georgia by a smidgen but if my gut is right and blacks are voting beyond 30 percent, then he’s a dead duck.”
— At fivethirtyeight.com, a polling aggregate site that leans slightly Democrat, Nate Silver still says Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss has an 88 percent chance of coming out the winner in the U.S. Senate race. But he also hedges his bet with this, part of a presidential lookahead:
Georgia and New Hampshire are a bit less essential electorally, but they may tell us the most about whether the polls are off in this election. If there’s one state where Obama is likely to overperform his polls, it’s in Georgia, where 35 percent of early voters are African-American, and where almost 30 percent of them did not vote in 2004.
These are the sorts of voters that may erroneously be screened out by “likely voter” models that rely on past voting history. Obama could not only carry the state, but he might help boost Jim Martin to victory in the U.S. Senate race there—giving the Democrats a plausible path to a 60-seat caucus.
— Finally, the Republican-oriented firm of Strategic Vision in Atlanta — which has polled the presidential race by ticket — says McCain/Palin is leading Obama/Biden 50 to 46 percent.
“At this moment Sarah Palin continues to be the most popular of the four candidates,” said SV’s David Johnson. “She draws her biggest support from white male voters and females ages 45 and over as well as social conservatives.”
The SV poll of 800 likely voters has a margin of error of 3 percentage points. Johnson says it’s weighted for an African-American turnout of 35 percent.
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Obama v. Hank Williams Jr.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
At the house Monday evening, Hank Williams Jr. called to urge me to “put country first” — whatta punster — and vote for Republican John McCain.
Being in Cobb County, we may not have been targeted by robo-calls from Democrat Barack Obama. Still, his people filled us in on the thoughts he’s now sending out to friendlier territories.
He’s quite polite. “This race will be close. That’s why I need your vote. Thanks so much. Bye, bye.” It’s the “bye-bye” that gets you.
