Home > Political Insider > Archives > 2008 > October > 28 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USA bit of back-and-forth over polls in the 8th District
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We’ve got dueling surveys in the 8th District congressional contest between Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall of Macon and Republican Rick Goddard of Houston County.
The Goddard campaign this morning trumpeted this item from Roll Call, the D.C.-based newspaper:
A new poll conducted exclusively for Roll Call found Marshall clinging to a narrow lead over his Republican challenger, retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Rick Goddard. And the size of the African-American turnout might determine just how close the race ultimately is.
In the poll, taken by the automated firm SurveyUSA on Saturday and Sunday, Marshall had 49 percent and Goddard had 45 percent. The poll of 634 likely voters had a 4-point margin of error.
The perception among many political observers was that Marshall had a more substantial lead over Goddard, a novice candidate despite his impressive military credentials. But the race might be closing fast, which was also the case in 2006, when the Congressman edged ex-Rep. Mac Collins (R) by 1 point, even though it was a strong year for Democrats nationally — and polls had showed Marshall with a slightly bigger lead. The Marshall-Collins race was one of the 10 closest House contests of last cycle.
This has caused Marshall’s campaign to release this afternoon, the results of an in-house survey it finished up last week, which showed Marshall leading Goddard by a more healthy 48 to 31 percent.
The Marshallites said that their “live ” — as opposed to automated — survey of 400 likely voters has a margin error of plus-or-minus 4.9 percent.
Services »
Comments
By AV
October 28, 2008 5:55 PM | Link to this
It’s obvious that Jim Marshall’s camp is scared out of its mind.
I wonder which poll I’m going to beleive.
An independent poll that shows General Goddard within the margin of error, or the poll that shows Marshall up by 17 points, in a district that was decided by 1% last year.
It must be the same fantasy world Marshall was living in when he voted for this bailout or the same fantasy world he lives in when he votes for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House.
By Actual pollster
October 28, 2008 7:56 PM | Link to this
There was no independent poll here.
The “Survey USA/Aristotle” poll had a sample provided by a member of Goddard’s consulting team that is continually embroiled in lawsuits with much of its client base. And their lists are chock full of dead people.
It’s a “Computerized Response Automated Poll”, which textbooks commonly refer to by its acronym, CRAP.
Duh. The undecideds are WAY too low.
If any REAL polling showed the same thing, Goddard’s would have as well. but he has not released it.
Goddard’s Q-Score is very low. That’s the score they use in the TV news business to assess anchors. Every time he goes on TV, he loses votes. He’s now on with 60-second ads of just him droning on. The Marshall folks must love that.
By PelosiandMarshall
October 28, 2008 8:20 PM | Link to this
Actual pollster or AKA Doug Moore - quit peddling that crap. No one is buying that garbage. Why don’t you release Jimmie’s whole poll - not just that one ballot question. Clearly Jimmie’s running push polls to have numbers that are so out of whack.
By James
October 29, 2008 10:35 AM | Link to this
Well, I live in the district, and I can tell you: it AIN’T 48-31. Not even Marshall believes that.
By Watcher
October 30, 2008 8:39 AM | Link to this
Just guessing, but the look and feel of this election has Marshall up over Goddard quite a bit more than Marshall was up over Goddard. I wouldn’t be surprised at a 53-47 win for Marshall, maybe bigger. Considering it’s a strongly Republican district, that’s just another year of a lot of wasted Republican votes. Just goes to show that control over the redistricting process doesn’t always produce the wisest allocations of voters.
By Watcher
October 30, 2008 8:40 AM | Link to this
Just guessing, but the look and feel of this election has Marshall up over Goddard quite a bit more than Marshall was up over Collins. I wouldn’t be surprised at a 53-47 win for Marshall, maybe bigger. Considering it’s a strongly Republican district, that’s just another year of a lot of wasted Republican votes. Just goes to show that control over the redistricting process doesn’t always produce the wisest allocations of voters.