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Friday, October 24, 2008
Was McCain smitten by a pretty face?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Kathleen Parker, a conservative columnist for the Washington Post, has already expressed her skepticism about Sarah Palin, the Republican nominee for vice president.
She goes a step further here:
[T]here can be no denying that McCain’s selection of her over others far more qualified — and his mind-boggling lack of attention to details that matter — suggests other factors at work. His judgment may have been clouded by … what?
Science provides clues. A study in Canada, published by a British journal in 2003, found that pretty women foil men’s ability to assess the future. “Discounting the future,” as the condition is called, means preferring immediate, lesser rewards to greater rewards in the future.
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A conversation with Bob Barr, who’s already looking past Nov. 4
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Bob Barr, reaching the end of an improbable campaign, is already slipping into post-election mode — a period in which the Libertarian presidential candidate will try to build his party into something more than a quadrennial spoiler.
The former Georgia congressman was at his national office in Smyrna on Friday, a dimly lit collection of cubicles only a few turns off I-285. For a man barely registering in the polls, with only 10 days of campaigning left, he was remarkably upbeat.
An InsiderAdvantage poll, released only minutes before, had shown Democratic rival Barack Obama at 48 percent in Georgia, Republican John McCain at 47 percent, and “other” at 2 percent. Barr wasn’t even mentioned by name — and Matt Towery, chairman and CEO of IA, once shared office space with Barr.
“Unfortunately, we’re used to it. It’s unfortunate that polling organizations do that. I don’t quite understand why. Why they do that I don’t know — other than the fact that polling organizations, by and large, have the same inbred bias against third parties [as] much of the national media,” Barr said.
But the former U.S. attorney is past all that. He expects to do several points better than 2 percent in Georgia — not that this is about small numbers anymore.
His purpose now is to make the difference between Obama and McCain in as many states as possible in the final days, Barr said. Power, and respect, comes with the ability to change the outcome of a given situation.
“We’ve deliberately left the last several days very flexible, depending on what the poll numbers and the spread between Obama and McCain show in several state,” Barr said. Which Ohio, North Carolina — and at least two days here. He’s got a 2 p.m. Monday appearance at the University of Georgia in Athens.
“From what I’m hearing, and looking at the numbers, the dramatic increase in registration, the dramatic numbers of early voters, there is an awful lot of support building for Obama. And I think Republicans have a lot to be worried about in Georgia,” he said.
By proving himself the arbiter in a handful of states, Barr said he would be able to stake a claim in the political debate that follows Nov. 4. Especially now that federal intervention in the economy is likely to be a continuing topic.
The problem with third party movements, whether philosophy-based Libertarians or the personality-driven followers of Ross Perot, is that they deflate after Election Day. The organization and the money fades into the woodwork. “That kills political movements,” Barr said. “We don’t intend to make that mistake.”
Barr said he and Allen Buckley, the Libertarian candidate for Senate, have not coordinated their campaigns here. (Buckley, by the way, says the same thing.)
But Barr also said that the federal bailout of Wall Street means ties their two campaigns together.
“I’d like to think it’s all about me, and that I’m John McCain’s biggest nightmare, but the problem the Republicans have nationally and here in Georgia, goes far deeper than simply Bob Barr,” he said. “It goes to the fact that not only do the Republicans have nothing approaching a vision or a platform for the American people, but they’re embracing big government with such enthusiasm — it’s just really turning people off.”
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The robo-calls are coming: Get your answering machines ready
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Got the first robo-call at the Cobb County homestead the other day — the first of dozens, probably.
This one was on behalf of Saxby Chambliss, the Republican incumbent in the U.S. Senate race, and touted this week’s endorsement by the Marietta Daily Journal, which called Chambliss “vital to curbing liberals’ excess.”
There’s nothing unusual or hard-hitting about the audio, except that it was paid for by the Republican National Committee. Which means that, despite the millions Chambliss raised for the contest, the RNC feels it necessary to shoulder some of the financial load.
But let this serve as an appropriate notice: Keep those answering machines on. We’re interested in grabbing sound on all robo-calls, preferably in mp3 or WAV format. Whether the message is presidential, senatorial or other.
This weekend should be the start of the flood.
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InsiderAdvantage poll: Obama now has razor-thin lead in Georgia
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
InsiderAdvantage has a new poll up this morning, showing the U.S. Senate and presidential races in Georgia to be toss-ups.
In fact, the local polling firm says Democrat Barack Obama now has a slight edge over Republican John McCain, though within the margin of error. Both polls, conducted last night, are of 615 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
In the presidential: Obama, 48%; McCain, 47%; other, 2%; and undecided, 2%.
This comment from IA founder Matt Towery:
“Obama is doing better among white voters than Kerry did in 2004 (according to exit polls of that race), carrying some 28 percent of the white vote. He’s carrying around 75 percent both of the Hispanic and ‘other’ vote, which makes up between four and five percent of Georgia’s electorate. He is winning among independents, outside of the margin of error of the poll.”
With 10 days before Election Day, the InsiderAdvantage survey is the first to give Obama even a small lead in Georgia.
Two other polls in Georgia show a wider contest. Rasmussen Reports shows the race closing, but still gives McCain a 5-point lead — 51 percent to Obama’s 46 percent.
Strategic Vision, the Republican-oriented, Atlanta-based firm, also issued a new poll today, and gave McCain an even larger six-point lead. But SV also presented the contest in a slightly different fashion — asking voters to select entire tickets.
SV says its: McCain/Sarah Palin at 51%; Obama/Joe Biden, 45%; and Libertarians Bob Barr/Wayne Root, 2%.
No one’s showing their internals, but the key question is probably where each survey spots African-American turnout.
On the other hand, all three polling outlets show the U.S. Senate contest in Georgia headed to a run-off between Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss and Democrat Jim Martin.
In the IA poll, the race stands thusly: Chambliss, 44%; Martin, 42%; Libertarian Allen Buckley, 2%; and undecided, 12%.
With Rasmussen, a separate survey released Thursday showed Chambliss at 47%, Martin at 45%, and Buckley at 1%.
Strategic Vision has Chambliss at 46% and Martin at 44%. But SV gives Buckley his strongest showing to date, at 5 percent.
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Chambliss hit with subpeona in refinery explosion lawsuit
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Savannah Morning News reports this morning that U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss has been ordered to provide evidence in lawsuits stemming from the explosion of the Imperial Sugar Co. refinery in February.
Says the article:
The Republican lawmaker was subpeonaed Wednesday on behalf of four victims - two dead and two injured - of the Port Wentworth inferno that killed 14 and hurt scores of others.
The action surfaced less than two weeks before the Nov. 4 election, which pits Chambliss in a tight race against Democrat Jim Martin.
Savannah attorney Mark Tate says Chambliss might be part of an Imperial “effort to shift responsibility” away from the company.
The lawsuits, which Tate filed on behalf of the four victims and others, claim Imperial “wrongfully” failed to remove hazards that caused the disaster.
The plaintiff’s attorney, the newspaper notes, is an active backer of Democratic causes. But Chambliss declined the opportunity to declare the subpoena to be politically motivated. Said the Morning News’s Larry Peterson:
In a written statement, Chambliss said he has referred the matter to Senate lawyers.
“I continue to sympathize with the families who were devastated by this tragedy,” he said, “and I will continue to work to protect the interests of those families.”
Tate says he’ll press for Chambliss to give evidence before Election Day. But that’s not likely to happen.
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No House members from Georgia on GOP ‘death list,’ but Goddard isn’t on a list of possible pick-ups
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
There’s a GOP memo floating through Washington, first snagged by U.S. News & World Report then by Politico, that says Republicans could lose up to 34 seats in the House on Nov. 4.
No GOP congressmen from Georgia are on the so-called “death list.” But Politico has this significant paragraph:
National Republicans are confident in their prospects of taking back just one currently Democratic seat — the one held by scandal-plagued Florida Rep. Tim Mahoney. Reps. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.), Paul E. Kanjorski (D-Pa.), Christopher P. Carney (D-Pa.) and Nick Lampson (D-Texas) are in tossup races, according to the NRCC, and the committee also views the battle for retiring Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer’s seat in Alabama as a tossup.
No mention of the fight for Georgia’s 8th District, which pits Democratic incumbent Jim Marshall of Macon against Republican Rick Goddard, the retired Air Force major general.
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