Home > Political Insider > Archives > 2008 > October > 15 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USThe difference between who’s being polled and who’s voting
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
No doubt you’ve seen our account of the CNN poll that puts Republican John McCain at 51 percent in Georgia and Democrat Barack Obama at 45 percent.
Bob Barr, the Libertarian, gets 4 percent from his home state.
That’s a survey of 718 likely voters, at a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
When registered voters are counted rather than likely voters, McCain’s lead shrinks to 3 points. (McCain’s lead is also larger when Barr isn’t included, but that’s neither here nor there. Barr will be on the Georgia ballot.)
The point is that no one knows who’s voting — i.e., if the real-life pool of voters is reflected in the polling now being conducted. At the risk of stating the obvious, the broader the voter pool, the better for Obama in Georgia.
Fivethirtyeight.com, a site that deals in aggregated statistics, is on the trail of a similar thought today:
So far, SurveyUSA has conducted polling in five states where some form of early voting was underway. In each one, Barack Obama is doing profoundly better among early voters than among the state’s electorate as a whole. In Georgia, according to the firm, likely and early voters give Obama a 6-point lead. If only non-early, likely voted are counted, according to SurveyUSA, McCain leads by 11 points.
Continues Fivethirtyeight:
Now certainly, early voters tend to be your stauncher partisans rather than your uncommitted voters — just 1-2 percent of early voters in 2000 and 2004 reported that they would have voted differently if they’d waited until election day. So it’s unlikely that John McCain is actually losing all that many persuadable voters to the early voter tallies.
What these results would seem to suggest, however, is that there are fairly massive advantages for the Democrats in enthusiasm and/or turnout operations. They imply that Obama is quite likely to turn out his base in large numbers; the question is whether the Republicans will be able to do the same.
• Full election coverage: News, photos and more
• Get instant notification of Political Insider updates: Sign up on Twitter
Comments
By Robert NYC
October 15, 2008 5:45 PM | Link to this
So get out and vote Repubs - unless you want this lying socialist giving all the tax dollars away
By PJ
October 15, 2008 5:53 PM | Link to this
Which means, there truly are more intelligent, caring Americans than our past two presidential election results would suggest. God Bless America.
By CLA
October 15, 2008 6:01 PM | Link to this
@Robert NYC
Good luck with that in NYC, buddy. You’ll be quite lonely in that Republican line.
Time for a change.
By John
October 15, 2008 6:01 PM | Link to this
“So get out and vote Repubs - unless you want this lying socialist giving all the tax dollars away”
LOL. You’re talking about George W. Bush, right?
By John
October 15, 2008 6:01 PM | Link to this
“unless you want this lying socialist giving all the tax dollars away”
LOL. You’re talking about George W. Bush, right?
By Me
October 15, 2008 6:03 PM | Link to this
Last time I checked it was the McCain campaign that had a problem with the truth. It was Bush and the Republican’s that doubled the size of the national debt that first grew to ginormous size under Reagen. It isn’t just your tax dollars Republicans are after, but your 401K, your home’s equity, your heath care tax deduction…
By John
October 15, 2008 6:04 PM | Link to this
“unless you want this lying socialist giving all the tax dollars away”
LOL. You’re talking about George W. Bush right?
By John
October 15, 2008 6:04 PM | Link to this
So Robert, would that lying socialist be George Bush the lesser who is bailing out all his banking cronies to the tune of a trillion dollars and still counting? Or invading a country that had nothing to do with 911 to the tune of over a trillion dollars and counting? I am certain you do support him allowing all those black families in New Orleans to die in the hurricane. Frankly, I’m sick of the Republican Party being the party of plutocracy and kleptocracy. I’m voting Democrat.
By Rob
October 15, 2008 6:05 PM | Link to this
Robert NYC - I seem to remember not too long ago a ‘Rebup’ president giving away 700 Billion dollars of taxpayers’ money. Republican agenda = socialism at its finest.
By Rob
October 15, 2008 6:06 PM | Link to this
To Robert in NYC: “lying socialist”? Gosh. That would be a perfect description of President Bush would it not? The number of lies is now beyond count, and it was President Bush who used his pulpit to exhort, plead, threaten and finally ram through the largest transfer of tax money in history- the so-called “bailout” (read the bill’s Section 118 if you have any reservations about that assessment). How about stepping back, Robert NYC, from rigid ideas about the holiness of ANY party (Pubs and Dems being only different flavors of misery), and demand instead from your representatives their upholding the Constitution as they so swore when they took office.
By John (UK)
October 15, 2008 6:06 PM | Link to this
Latest European newspaper polls put Obama 86% and McCain at 11%, undecided are 4%.
Unite the world America and vote Obama.
By Luciano
October 15, 2008 6:07 PM | Link to this
Robert, you have been reading too many espionage thrillers on Russia and the Cold War.
It’s a new day folks. The days of deregualted institutions and the Republicans Party pandering to their interests in order to increase their wealth and power, while raping the middle class in the process will grind to a halt on November 4th.
I can hardly wait!
By gaias child
October 15, 2008 6:07 PM | Link to this
where do the polling people get their names? do they only have people who have voted before? or people with land line phones? or members of Costco? or how does that happen?
By John (UK)
October 15, 2008 6:07 PM | Link to this
Latest European newspaper polls put Obama 86% and McCain at 11%, undecided are 4%.
Unite the world America and vote Obama.
By Adam STL
October 15, 2008 6:08 PM | Link to this
Better a lying socialist giving all the tax dollars away than a lying kleptocrat giving them all to his high finance golf buddies.
By matt
October 15, 2008 6:10 PM | Link to this
Giving all the tax dollars away? Hmmm. Did you know that accumulated budget deficits unde the bush administration would have solved/funded over 80% of the Soc Sec crisis looming…….through 2075.
By Leroy
October 15, 2008 6:11 PM | Link to this
Obama’ s percentage may be conservative - particularly if “cell phone only” voters and new voters (who often aren’t polled effectively) are ignored - Normally red (now pink) Georgia could be in for a surprise in the late evening on Nov 4.
By Truth
October 15, 2008 6:12 PM | Link to this
Finally a truthful poll! American media is going to be in shock after the election. It will be a much closer race than the liberal media is trying to make it out to be. Their agenda is too convince you it’s over and Obama won, so us repubs should just give up. Unfortunately it just encourages us! Keep it up!
By Terri
October 15, 2008 6:14 PM | Link to this
I hope you are correct on this. It is really scary - like the whole country is in a fog and they’re brains are shut off. They aren’t even listening or thinking, just reciting the lies they have been told. I heard one of Obama’s ads today and it made me want to scream becuase is was such an overblown lie - about healthcare nonetheless! This country is in very bad shape, but the worst thing we could do is make decisions out of anger or vengeance. I wish people would turn off the emotions, and turn on their brains.
By matt
October 15, 2008 6:15 PM | Link to this
Giving all the tax dollars away? Hmmm. Did you know that accumulated budget deficits unde the bush administration would have solved/funded over 80% of the Soc Sec crisis looming…….through 2075.
By matt
October 15, 2008 6:15 PM | Link to this
Giving all the tax dollars away? Hmmm. Did you know that accumulated budget deficits under the bush administration would have solved/funded over 80% of the Soc Sec crisis looming…….through 2075.
By Jeff Goolsby
October 15, 2008 6:16 PM | Link to this
Anyone who votes Republican either does not understand reality or likes Republican Depressions, small buisness and millions of jobs destroyed along with $1.3 billion dollars per day interest cost on the Republican Federal debt exploision. The interest cost on Bush Jr. Federal debt explosion potion is more than $525,000,000 daily and increasing by the minute. Anyone who thinks Democrats are the "Big Spenders" are blindfolded or have a brain void.Jeff Goolsby, www.jeffgoolsby.net
By Karl
October 15, 2008 6:18 PM | Link to this
If you havn’t heard… The number of Registered voters does not accurately reflect the number of acctual voters. Acorn Sucessfully registered one individual 73 times, but he can still only vote once if he votes at all.
Even in an environment such as this, where you don’t know who is going to acctually show up, it is unlikely that registered voters show up in enough numbers to make up the difference… End Result… McCain Wins.
By Peter
October 15, 2008 6:21 PM | Link to this
“…this lying socialist …”
Do you REALLY love America, or do you just love to hate? Put a white face on this same man, and there’s no question about who’d win! He’s NOT a muslim, though that shouldn’t even matter. He’s a good and extremely intelligent man who clearly understands the (White world and the Black) world. Don’t you think we deserve the best intelligence available in the White House? Do you honestly want a BETTER America for ALL Americans, or do you just want to keep hate alive?
By donnie
October 15, 2008 6:25 PM | Link to this
“Unite the world”?! Because of course the world only has America’s best interests at heart. Because if the world could select our president they would choose the candidate best suited to keep us as the #1 superpower! Wake up democrats! The world wants only to see us fall.
By Peter
October 15, 2008 6:39 PM | Link to this
“The world wants only to see us fall.”
Donnie, you should do some traveling. Americans are beloved abroad. Their foreign policy is NOT. There is an abundance of goodwill around the world for all the history of good that Americans have done, NOT for their recent stupidity! The world wants America to reflect its own propaganda about hope, equality, & opportunity - NOT repression of rights, fear & hatred. Make no mistake, we need to improve our ability to win friends and convert enemies. But the world is a very different place, now, and bullying doesn’t work! It’s gonna take smarts.
By Peter
October 15, 2008 6:47 PM | Link to this
“The world wants only to see us fall.”
Donnie, you should do some traveling. Americans are beloved abroad. Their foreign policy is NOT. There is an abundance of goodwill around the world for all the history of good that Americans have done, NOT for their recent stupidity! The world wants America to reflect its own propaganda about hope, equality, & opportunity - NOT repression of rights, fear & hatred. Make no mistake, we need to improve our ability to win friends and convert enemies. But the world is a very different place, now, and bullying doesn’t work! It’s gonna take smarts.
By ProudToBeRight
October 15, 2008 6:59 PM | Link to this
The polls are getting tighter. The latest Rasmussen poll, who polled likely voters has;
Obama - 47%
McCain - 44%
Remember, the only difference between Obama and Osama is BS.
The undecideds are starting to move toward McCain! Folks, the only way Obama wins is if they steal the election. Republicans, lets get out and vote. DO NOT BELIEVE THE POLLS FROM THE LAME STREAM MEDIA!!!
By ProudToBeRight
October 15, 2008 7:10 PM | Link to this
The polls are getting tighter. The latest Rasmussen poll, who polled likely voters has;
Obama - 47%
McCain - 44%
Remember, the only difference between Obama and Osama is BS.
The undecideds are starting to move toward McCain! Folks, the only way Obama wins is if they steal the election. Republicans, lets get out and vote. DO NOT BELIEVE THE POLLS FROM THE LAME STREAM MEDIA!!!
By donnie
October 15, 2008 7:20 PM | Link to this
Peter, I have travelled. In Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic I have been met with fear and distrust after informing those I’ve met that I am an American. Especially that I’m a US Marine. I’ve had to dispel rumors and falsehoods at every turn. The world only loves Americans who are willing, as Obama has done, to put down their own nation and deny any sense of pride in their home. Winning hearts and minds is all well and good, but not at the expense of becoming a footstool to the whims and ways of world opinion.
By Sir Winston
October 15, 2008 7:30 PM | Link to this
Oh yes, donnie, let us try to impress the Germans. They have such an excellent history in picking their leaders (rolling eyes). The Obama, peace be upon him, should run for President of the world after he comes up short on election day. Peace.
By TC
October 15, 2008 7:35 PM | Link to this
Reagan was behind Jimmy Carter up to the last week and we know how that ended. NO MATTER WHAT THE POLLS SAY, JUST GO VOTE.
By Sir Winston
October 15, 2008 7:44 PM | Link to this
John Kerry, who served in Vietnam, was up by 15 points at this point in his cycle. Peace.
By Mr. Me
October 15, 2008 7:45 PM | Link to this
Obama’s message: Hope.
McCain bumper sticker seen today: Nope.
How’s that for a stunning rebuttal? Do we want Hope? Nope.
Man, now I’ll have to vote for McCain.
By SoCalif
October 15, 2008 7:52 PM | Link to this
Why do we still keep hearing the pabulum “Socialist” or “Tax & Spend” Democrats?
If you look at facts, Republican administrations always spend more and they believe in limited govt ONLY in rhetoric.
This election, I prefer “Tax & Spend” Democrats to “Borrow & Spend” Republicans. Because it truly translates to Borrow (from China, US people, US unborn generations - which inevitaby means more taxes) & Spend (on large corps, ‘ownership class’) Republicans.
Peace.
By SoCalif
October 15, 2008 7:56 PM | Link to this
Why do we still keep hearing the pabulum “Socialist” or “Tax & Spend” Democrats?
If you look at facts, Republican administrations always spend more and they believe in limited govt ONLY in rhetoric.
This election, I prefer “Tax & Spend” Democrats to “Borrow & Spend” Republicans. Because it truly translates to Borrow (from China, US people, US unborn generations - which inevitaby means more taxes) & Spend (on large corps, ‘ownership class’) Republicans.
Peace.
By Rarl Kove
October 15, 2008 7:59 PM | Link to this
Hope is good. Change can be good depending if it is the right kind, but I always Hope for Exact Change. It is the best.
By Aaron Burr V. Mexico
October 15, 2008 8:01 PM | Link to this
Remember Obama supporters that only Republicans vote on Tuesday and Democrats only vote on Wednesday
By Cherokee
October 15, 2008 8:03 PM | Link to this
As usual Sir Winston, you’re clueless. AT this time in the Bush Kerry contest, Bush was ahead by 3 to 5 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bushvskerry.html
By Redneck4Obama
October 15, 2008 8:09 PM | Link to this
McCain and Palin are attracting the lynch mob crowds. They are sooo funny to watch. Palin is the most arrogant piece of work that I ever seen.
How about that future son-in-law? Quitting school to work the oil fields to support Palin’s pregnant teen daughter. I guess you don’t have to be too smart to get into the oil industry!
The future son-in-law says, “She’s my future mother-in-law. She better win.” I bet he thinks he’ll really have it made then? Sounds to me like a real doozy!
By Sir Winston
October 15, 2008 8:10 PM | Link to this
I am sorry, Cherokee. I was thinking of the exit polls that had Kerry up 15 pts. My point still holds, you lib douche. Peace.
By Redneck4Obama
October 15, 2008 8:14 PM | Link to this
McCain and Palin are attracting the lynch mob crowds. They are sooo funny to watch. Palin is the most arrogant piece of work that I ever seen.
How about that future son-in-law? Quitting school to work the oil fields to support Palin’s pregnant teen daughter. I guess you don’t have to be too smart to get into the oil industry!
The future son-in-law says, “She’s my future mother-in-law. She better win.” I bet he thinks he’ll really have it made then? Sounds to me like a real doozy!
By Redneck4Obama
October 15, 2008 8:15 PM | Link to this
McCain and Palin are attracting the lynch mob crowds. They are sooo funny to watch. Palin is the most arrogant piece of work that I ever seen.
How about that future son-in-law? Quitting school to work the oil fields to support Palin’s pregnant teen daughter. I guess you don’t have to be too smart to get into the oil industry!
The future son-in-law says, “She’s my future mother-in-law. She better win.” I bet he thinks he’ll really have it made then? Sounds to me like a real doozy!
By Independent
October 15, 2008 8:17 PM | Link to this
Definitely voting for Mr. McCain and Not Dem.nor Rep. party!! Can’t stand for both parties! Mr. Obama is too far left but Mr. McCain is in the middle and THAT’s what we need in Washington!
By Davina
October 15, 2008 9:02 PM | Link to this
Barrack Obama is our ONLY HOPE What is this site a republican site?! everything I see here suggests all postings are the views of a republican…KNOW YOUR FACTS Barrack Obamas TAX PLAN is to NOT increas taxes for any American families making under $250,000.00 a yr…thats most middle and low income families…plus he doesnt want to continue tax increases on HEALTH CARE COSTS…unlike John McCain whos pplanning just the opposite…plus John McCain wants to give tax breaks to the oil companies who are making billions of dollars off the American people on a reg basis!!!!!!!!!! A VOTE FOR BARRACK OBAMA…IS A VOTE FOR POSITIVE CHANGE!!!!!!! “There has never been anything false about hope” Barack Obama ‘08
I VOTED EARLY Davina
By Davina
October 15, 2008 9:02 PM | Link to this
Barrack Obama is our ONLY HOPE What is this site a republican site?! everything I see here suggests all postings are the views of a republican…KNOW YOUR FACTS Barrack Obamas TAX PLAN is to NOT increas taxes for any American families making under $250,000.00 a yr…thats most middle and low income families…plus he doesnt want to continue tax increases on HEALTH CARE COSTS…unlike John McCain whos pplanning just the opposite…plus John McCain wants to give tax breaks to the oil companies who are making billions of dollars off the American people on a reg basis!!!!!!!!!! A VOTE FOR BARRACK OBAMA…IS A VOTE FOR POSITIVE CHANGE!!!!!!! “There has never been anything false about hope” Barrack Obama ‘08
I VOTED EARLY Davina
By Davina
October 15, 2008 9:04 PM | Link to this
Barrack Obama is our ONLY HOPE What is this site a republican site?! everything I see here suggests all postings are the views of a republican…KNOW YOUR FACTS Barrack Obamas TAX PLAN is to NOT increas taxes for any American families making under $250,000.00 a yr…thats most middle and low income families…plus he doesnt want to continue tax increases on HEALTH CARE COSTS…unlike John McCain whos pplanning just the opposite…plus John McCain wants to give tax breaks to the oil companies who are making billions of dollars off the American people on a reg basis!!!!!!!!!! A VOTE FOR BARRACK OBAMA…IS A VOTE FOR POSITIVE CHANGE!!!!!!! “There has never been anything false about hope” Barrack Obama ‘08
I VOTED EARLY Davina
By Cherokee
October 15, 2008 9:11 PM | Link to this
nice try, winston, but it’s not what you said.
By Sam1234
October 16, 2008 12:04 AM | Link to this
Obama is a sleeper Muslim.
By JerryT
October 16, 2008 12:10 AM | Link to this
McCain is just a sleeper.
By debby
October 16, 2008 10:05 AM | Link to this
it is just plain stupid to vote only because of party ties. If you have any brains at all, you will go to each of their sites and READ! don’t listen to ads, don’t listen to your buddies! READ! when everyone knows McCain’s and O’Bama’s plans on the issues, then you can make the correct choice. For you and only you. You can not force your ideas on other people, no matter how hard you try. when people try to shove their thoughts on everyone else it works the opposite, so no matter how much name calling, yelling and acting like total fools you do….you just push people to the other side, because everyone thinks if this fool is voting for him…i sure don’t want to. Its time to get over race issues (color or sex), and all of us try to put this great Nation back together. its time for us to have our say! I am sick of Washington making decisions that we have no say in. We should be able to vote on decisions that give 700 billion to banks and the stock market. Someone said to me if we took 300 of that money, an paid off all the middle class and lower homes, just give the money to the bank for them, not interest charges, late charges or any other charge they can think of. just the amount the home is worth. then they can get moving again. make the payment low enough for the people to pay US back, and be able to buy food, gas and still have electric. then we would make our money back! and the market and banks that was involved in short selling and the stupid ideal of credit debit swap, eat the charges! they caused it, and it was a gamble, well they lost! I believe the only way we will get any of our money back is, put it in the peoples hands, they want their homes. and they or we the people would be able to pay, and keep our economy going. sorry this is so long, but vote for who you believe in, after you read both views. just do what is best for you. the United States of America is us and we are all thankful to be here, lets just keep it a place to be proud of and fight together.
By lucky
October 16, 2008 1:14 PM | Link to this
Obama gets: 98% of Black vote 50% of White vote Mccain gets:02% of Black vote 50% of White vote. Am I the only one who sees a trend here?