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Wednesday, October 15, 2008
The DSCC enters the U.S. Senate race, and the issue is the Fair Tax
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Late this afternoon, the Insider talked to a Democratic fellow who seemed to know what he was talking about.
He said the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee was ready to double down on Jim Martin, to the tune of $1 million rather than the $500,000 reported today.
Just minutes ago, the DSCC released the attack ad on Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss — the first the Washington organization has put its name to:
For the confused among you, this is all about the Fair Tax. Previously, the DSCC was content to act through the Democratic Party of Georgia. Now it’s out there on its own. It seems that we suddenly have ourselves a very serious U.S. Senate race in Georgia.
Just saw the ad on WSB-TV at 7 p.m.
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The difference between who’s being polled and who’s voting
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
No doubt you’ve seen our account of the CNN poll that puts Republican John McCain at 51 percent in Georgia and Democrat Barack Obama at 45 percent.
Bob Barr, the Libertarian, gets 4 percent from his home state.
That’s a survey of 718 likely voters, at a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
When registered voters are counted rather than likely voters, McCain’s lead shrinks to 3 points. (McCain’s lead is also larger when Barr isn’t included, but that’s neither here nor there. Barr will be on the Georgia ballot.)
The point is that no one knows who’s voting — i.e., if the real-life pool of voters is reflected in the polling now being conducted. At the risk of stating the obvious, the broader the voter pool, the better for Obama in Georgia.
Fivethirtyeight.com, a site that deals in aggregated statistics, is on the trail of a similar thought today:
So far, SurveyUSA has conducted polling in five states where some form of early voting was underway. In each one, Barack Obama is doing profoundly better among early voters than among the state’s electorate as a whole. In Georgia, according to the firm, likely and early voters give Obama a 6-point lead. If only non-early, likely voted are counted, according to SurveyUSA, McCain leads by 11 points.
Continues Fivethirtyeight:
Now certainly, early voters tend to be your stauncher partisans rather than your uncommitted voters — just 1-2 percent of early voters in 2000 and 2004 reported that they would have voted differently if they’d waited until election day. So it’s unlikely that John McCain is actually losing all that many persuadable voters to the early voter tallies.
What these results would seem to suggest, however, is that there are fairly massive advantages for the Democrats in enthusiasm and/or turnout operations. They imply that Obama is quite likely to turn out his base in large numbers; the question is whether the Republicans will be able to do the same.
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Zell Miller to become a fixture at UGA
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
On Friday, the name of former Georgia governor and U.S. senator Zell Miller will be placed on the 5-year-old Student Learning Center, the second-largest building on University of Georgia campus — not far from the entrance of Sanford Stadium.
The building’s new name will be the Zell B. Miller Learning Center. There is no truth to the rumor that, in return, Miller has agreed to cease work on what was to be his next best-seller, “A National Championship No More.”
The flacks at UGA have confirmed that a 2 p.m. Friday naming ceremony will follow a luncheon to which we’re not invited. Gov. Sonny Perdue is to be there, as will U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson.
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Independent running against Mike Jacobs for House seat says she’d caucus with Democrats
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Michelle Conlon is running as an independent against Democrat-turned-Republican state Rep. Mike Jacobs of Atlanta, but she won’t necessarily be an independent if she gets elected.
Conlon and House Minority Leader DuBose Porter (D-Dublin) held a conference call with reporters this morning, including my AJC colleague James Salzer, to declare that she’d caucus with the Democrats if she beats Jacobs.
A check by Salzer shows Conlon’s campaign has received about $6,000 from House Democratic leaders and Democratic groups. Conlon has yet to file campaign reports due earlier this month and owes $150 in late fees, according to the State Ethics Commission.
Jacobs’ defeat would have special meaning for Democrats. He was elected as a Democrat from his DeKalb County district, then switched parties last year. The Democrat who filed to run against him this year was disqualified for residency problems.
Conlon told reporters her views align more with Democrats. “We will be the party that leads Georgia out of the mess we’re in,” she said.
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Acknowledging the competition: Chambliss launches two attack ads on Martin
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
With a pair of attack ads that have been spotted in Atlanta and Savannah, Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss on Wednesday acknowledged that Democrat Jim Martin is someone worth beating down in the U.S. Senate race.
One of the ads attacks Martin’s performance as commissioner of the Department of Human Resources, connecting him to the death of children in DFACS care. The other lumps Martin into the company of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.
The ads started playing late Tuesday, the same day that the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee said that it had bought about $500,000 worth of advertising time on at least five metro Atlanta television stations for spots to support Martin in his uphill battle.
Scripts for the two ads can be found on the jump. But here’s the first Chambliss attack ad, dubbed “Crisis:”
And here’s the second Chambliss attack ad, dubbed “Democrats:”
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Crisis script:
Our economy is in crisis -
Georgia families are losing their homes, their savings, their retirements -
And while Jim Martin talks about the middle class,
He voted to hit Georgia families with the largest tax increase in state history… and voted to raise his own government expense account.
In fact… Jim Martin was fired from his government job… because he betrayed the public trust.
Jim Martin’s record proves…you can’t trust Jim Martin.
I’m Saxby Chambliss and I approve this message.
“Democrats” script:
Democrats control congress …
And our economy is in trouble.
Democrats gave us the highest gas prices in history.
They’ve tried to raise our taxes.
They’ve blocked every effort to regulate subprime lenders.
And these same liberal democrats are supporting Jim Martin.
Our economy is in crisis …and while Jim Martin offers criticisms…
…Saxby Chambliss is working to get our economy back on track…protect taxpayers and homeowners…and put an end to Wall Street abuses.
I’m Saxby Chambliss and I approve this message.
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Georgia Christian Alliance out with its voter guide
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Georgia Christian Alliance has posted its election-season voter guide, which can be found here
Most Democratic candidates, including U.S. Senate candidate Jim Martin, and four of the seven judicial candidates for the state Court of Appeals chose not to participate.
Which sent GCA chairman Sadie Fields culling headlines and interviews to provide them with a few unwanted answers.
In the presidential category, for instance, Fields faults Democrat Barack Obama for supporting limits on bullets. “I would support banning the sale of ammunition for assault weapons and limiting the sale of ammunition for handguns,” she quotes Obama as saying in a 2003 questionaire from the Independent Voters of Illinois.
Do keep in mind, as posted here last week, that Fields was separately named chairman of Georgians of Faith, a group dedicated to turning out the vote for Republican John McCain.
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