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DEL.ICIO.USOn cell phones and polling
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
National Journal Magazine is a subscription site, but if you’ve got access, this piece on cell phones and polling is well worth your time.
Here’s a paragraph:
In three surveys over the summer, Pew focused on this demographic to try to detect any differences between polls that relied solely on land-line-only households and polls that also included cellphone-only households. Pew consistently found that in head-to-head matchups against John McCain, Barack Obama scored 2 percentage points higher when the cellphone-only voters (who received $10 apiece to participate) were included. In a survey completed on September 14, for example, the standard land-line sample produced a 45-45 percent tie. But when cell-only respondents were added, Obama came out 2 points ahead — 46 percent to 44 percent.
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Comments
By Eddie
October 14, 2008 12:41 PM | Link to this
Wow, what a revelation that Obama would get better results by polling cell phones. Next time you’re out driving see how many blacks are on the phone and driving. Black women must think their cars won’t run unless they’re on the phone driving.
By David
October 14, 2008 1:33 PM | Link to this
Wow, Eddie. I think the results reflect more of the reality that young folks are less likely to have a landline; thus, young people who will vote are underrepresented in traditional polls. You, sir, are evidence of the “Bubba Vote”: folks that refuse to vote for Obama because they are racist.
By David
October 14, 2008 1:36 PM | Link to this
Wow, Eddie. I think the results reflect more of the reality that young folks are less likely to have a landline; thus, young people who will vote are underrepresented in traditional polls. You, sir, are evidence of the “Bubba Vote”: folks that refuse to vote for Obama because they are racist.
By BPJ
October 14, 2008 2:07 PM | Link to this
It is true that many younger voters have no land-line, only a cellphone. And younger voters tend to favor Obama according to all data I’ve seen.
I looked into this issue a few months ago, and Gallup claims to have solved this problem. They don’t work off of any list of numbers; they just have computers generate random 7 digit numbers (preceded by the relevant area codes). In theory this should reach cell #s as readily as fixed phone #s.
You could argue that, when it comes to polling individual states, this method still misses those who move into the state you’re looking at but who haven’t changed their cell #s; that may be a statistically insignificant group, however, since you have to wonder how many people who haven’t bothered to get a local cell phone would have nevertheless registered to vote. So I think Gallup and a few others have adjusted for this wrinkle.
By Sir Winston
October 14, 2008 2:24 PM | Link to this
Every cycle we hear the “rock the vote” deal. And that every cycle the youth vote will put the Democrat candidate over the top. I guess we will see. This is a six point race and to the media’s dismay Obama cannot close the deal. Peace.
By Fat Lady
October 14, 2008 2:51 PM | Link to this
“…and to the media’s dismay Obama cannot close the deal.”
LMAO!!! Almost everyone knows its OVER! Done deal. Obama landslide.
la-la-la-lalaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
By Eddie
October 14, 2008 3:06 PM | Link to this
I refuse to vote for Obama because the man is not qualified and he will tax us into the poor house. I was around with Jimmy Carter, I don’t want a Jimmy II. Obama wants to socialize the US, redistribute wealth through the IRS. David, oh bright one David…his black voters are not intellectually capable of not voting Obama no matter what the man says or does. What does this make them, go ahead David…say it. Tell me. There’s NOTHING Obama could do and not get 90% of the black vote. Give me te bubba vote anyday, the bubba vote could save your dumb arse. Tell me, is that racist, how they’ll vote no matter what.
By Copyleft
October 14, 2008 3:13 PM | Link to this
In Sir Winston’s eyes, no margin of victory will be enough to “close the deal.”
I wonder if he’ll finally change his tune once President Obama takes the oath of office… or will he still be claiming that “Obama can’t win,” as he so desperately (and wrongly) hopes?
By Sir Winston
October 14, 2008 3:55 PM | Link to this
I haven’t claimed that The Obama, peace be upon him, can’t win, you reactionary fools. I just said that it is not a done deal. Get over yourself. There are 3 weeks left and that is a long time in Presidential politics. Peace.
By Aaron Burr V. Mexico
October 14, 2008 4:15 PM | Link to this
Course its not a done deal.
Until I see Obama actually TAKE the oath of office I’m waiting for shenanigans.
By Sir Winston
October 14, 2008 4:24 PM | Link to this
ACORN isn’t enough, Aaron? The Obama, peace be upon him, is trying to steal this election through his former community organizing group, ACORN. Peace.
By JerryT
October 14, 2008 5:34 PM | Link to this
I’m not clear Eddie… is it Black people or dumb people who are the problem? Or just dumb Black people?
By Mike
October 14, 2008 6:18 PM | Link to this
A little from column A and a little from column B there Jerry.