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Wednesday, October 1, 2008
A second poll shows McCain slipping in Georgia
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
For the second time in two days, a statewide poll shows Republican John McCain slipping in Georgia as a result of the nation’s fiscal crisis.
This time, the survey comes from a partnership of WSB-TV and InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position. To be precise, the poll puts McCain at 50 percent and Democrat Barack Obama at 44 percent. Margin of error is plus-or-minus 4 percent.
Two percent prefer “other” candidates — not good news for Bob Barr, the Libertarian. And 4 percent are undecided.
On Tuesday, a SurveyUSA poll backed by two TV stations, WXIA in Atlanta and WMAZ in Macon, showed a similar drop in McCain’s fortunes, with the Republican at 52 percent and Obama at 44 percent. Margin of error was plus-or-minus 3.8 percent.
InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position had McCain up by 18 points three weeks ago. SurveyUSA had the Republican up by 16 points two weeks ago.
In a hardcore Republican state like Georgia, a McCain recovery is well within the reach of possibility, even probable — despite the first signs of an Obama surge here. But if he’s falling this far, this fast in Georgia, then McCain has other, larger worries elsewhere in the country.
If he schedules a campaign stop here, you McCain supporters have cause to worry.
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No Bloomberg-style, third-term movement for Shirley Franklin
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
As a field of candidates jockey for position in the ‘09 race for mayor of Atlanta, a new name was floated — and sunk — on Wednesday.
The name was Shirley Franklin. The owner of the torpedo was also named Shirley Franklin.
Currently, Franklin, the two-term incumbent mayor, is barred from a third consecutive term. Now, such a small, itty-bitty rule isn’t holding back a giant like New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. He reportedly wants to change New York law to accomodate his third-term ambition.
This afternoon, during a question and answer session with the Hungry Club Forum, a city official asked Franklin if she had any interest in doing the same. My AJC colleague Eric Stirgus was there.
Franklin that noted any changes would require the approval of the state Legislature — a lobbying effort she was less than inclined to pursue.
“I think I’ll say farewell, fairly well…and I wish [all the candidates] well,” Franklin told the crowd at the Butler Street YMCA.
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Riffing on a cow patty: Paul Broun’s phraseology takes off
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
U.S. Rep. Paul Broun of Athens may have coined the metaphor heard ‘round the world.
“This is a huge cow patty with a piece of marshmellow stuck in the middle of it, and I am not going to eat that cow patty,” the Republican vowed from the House floor on Monday, before he and 227 other members of Congress sent the $700 bailout bill down to defeat.
The imagery has been irresistible: “In a related story, don’t have dinner at Congressman Paul Broun’s house,” cracked Conan O’Brien last night. In Atlanta, WSB (750AM) has incorporated Broun’s remarks into a promo.
On its web site, Time magazine has a more serious take. Here’s a synopsis:
There’s just one problem, Congressman Cow Patty: A lot of us did eat it, including many of your constituents. The $1.2 trillion — let’s spell that out as $1,200,000,000,000 — that disappeared from the stock market on Monday didn’t go down a black hole in lower Manhattan. It came out of America’s 401(k)s, mutual funds, pension funds and personal portfolios….
Some of the homeowners who are losing wealth reside in Clarke County, Ga., Congressman Broun’s home turf, which also had $1.9 billion in deposits in financial institutions in 2006, according to the University of Georgia. That ain’t chicken feed. And speaking of which, the fourth largest employer in the region, poultry processor Pilgrim’s Pride, is now struggling with financing because credit markets have seized. There are 1,500 jobs in the balance if, say, Pilgrim’s Pride can’t make payroll because it doesn’t have access to funds….
Broun is resolute that taxpayer money won’t be used “to give a golden parachute to Wall Street that our grandchildren may still be paying for many decades from now.” But Wall Street is all of us, including the Congressman from the 10th District in Georgia. We are all going to eat the cow patty. The only question is, how big will it be?
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Fallout from the bailout vote: Marshall cuts a TV ad, and Goddard may be polling
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall (D-Macon) is still the focus of attention over his Monday vote in favor of the Wall Street bailout/rescue.
He and Sanford Bishop were the only members of the Georgia delegation to support it.
This is from today’s Washington Post:
Rep. Jim Marshall had planned to be in his rural southwest Georgia district yesterday to raise money and meet with voters. Instead, the Democrat was in his Capitol Hill office with bags under his eyes, preparing to cut a 30-second television spot that would explain to his constituents, including the nearly 1,000 angry people who have called and written his office in the past four days, why he voted for the bailout plan.
Marshall represents a Republican-leaning district, and is in what’s presumed to be a tight race against Rick Goddard, a retired Air Force major general. The Post article notes that “Goddard’s campaign office did not respond to three calls seeking comment yesterday.”
But according to Goddard’s web site, the Republican appears to be taking the same line as the seven GOP members of the House delegation.
These are remarks made by Goddard on Tuesday in Hawskinsville, according to his campaign:
“Congress must immediately return to the table and craft a bill to correct this problem using free market principles, avoid setting the precedent of government intervention, and most importantly remember that the taxpayer did not get us into this mess and they should not be the ones to shoulder the load.
“It concerned me that there were some in Congress who were willing, with their vote, to allocate $700 billion of taxpayer money on a proposal that was crafted by a few people, in a closed room, and pushed through without committee hearings and with extremely minimal debate.
Who this debate helps, or hurts, is open to debate. Clearly, candidates want to know. Late last night, the Marshall campaign sent out this e-mail to supporters in the 8th District:
It has come to our attention this evening that the Goddard campaign is conducting a poll. If you receive or have already received this call, please give us a call at our campaign headquarters…. We’ll be here late to take your calls and notes. Already we’ve received detailed information about the poll - and one thing of note is the poll’s focus on the financial rescue legislation.
The debate within Republican circles is fierce. You read Goddard’s argument that the bail out is an improper case of federal intervention in the market. But Chuck Clay of InsiderAdvantage, a former state senator and state GOP chairman, has a warning this morning:
Do you remember that brilliant move of shutting down the government a few years back? It was — in theory — the absolute right thing to do. In reality, it was a political disaster for Republicans, and in case I can’t make this any clearer, the failure to pass some sort of financial system stabilization, bailout, or whatever you want to call it, is going to be laid directly at the feet of Republicans. Take it to the bank. End of issue.
Yes, there is plenty of blame to go around for the financial mess that we are now in, from greedy Wall Street operators and bankers, to failed oversight where it’s needed, and too much regulation where its not. The blunt reality, however, is that as long as George Bush is President, the blame for the financial mess is going to be laid predominately on Republicans, not Democrats.
By the way, a reader called this morning to ask how the Senate could vote on the Wall Street rescue bill this evening, when — according to the U.S. Constitution — all revenue bills are to originate in the House.
Here’s the e-mailed answer we got from Sheridan Watson, spokeswoman for U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson:
“The Senate will offer the financial rescue plan and tax-extenders language as a substitute amendment to a House-passed mental health parity bill (H.R.1424). That will allow the Senate to work around the requirement that revenue-related legislation originate in the House.”
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Has the Obama surge begun? Nearly 40 percent of early votes cast by African-Americans
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
As of Monday, 135,412 ballots had been cast in Georgia for the Nov. 4 general election, whether by absentee or early in-person voting.
Nearly 40 percent of those voters — 53,160 — have been African-American, according to the office of Secretary of State Karen Handel.
It is this kind of intensity, driven by the presidential campaign of Barack Obama, that has worried Georgia Republicans and stirred the hopes of Democrats in the state.
As of Aug. 31, African-Americans, the most reliable demographic in the Democratic base, made up 29 percent of those registered to vote. However, their participation rate in elections traditionally is several points lower.
After a full week of early voting statewide, the highest performing counties are: DeKalb, with 14,560 votes cast; Fulton, 10,599; Gwinnett, 7,952; Cobb, 7,021; Chatham, 4,771. All have significant minority populations.
Matt Carrothers, spokesman for Handel, said in addition to the 135,412 ballots already cast, another 105,526 have been mailed out but not returned.
Handel wants at least 1 million Georgia voters to cast early ballots, and it’s easy to see why. If, as expected, 85 percent of the state’s 5.5 million voters head to the polls on Nov. 4, Georgia’s 3,000 polling stations could be overwhelmed.
Granted, the math says that each station would only have to handle a little more than 1,500 over a 12-hour period, but people aren’t spread out like that.
UPDATE: Some of you are asking how the secretary of state’s office knows all this.
Because Georgia is a state covered by the Voting Rights Act, with a history of racial discrimination, officials are required to take into account whether their actions affect the ballot rights of minorities.
To do that, the race and sex of all voters is requested upon registration, but giving it is not mandatory, according to Handel’s web site. This is the only demographic information obtained and, since voters aren’t required to register by party, the only clue that analysts have about who is voting.
Here’s the complete breakdown of advance voters offered by Handel’s office:
— Black female: 32,865;
— Black male: 20,295;
— White female: 40,860;
— White male: 36,958;
— Female Asian-Pacific island: 239;
— Male Asian-Pacific island: 188;
— Female Hispanic-Latino: 304;
— Male Hispanic-Latino: 253;
— Female Native American: 12;
— and Male Native American: 10.
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