Political Insider

By Robby

September 11, 2008 4:13 PM | Link to this

I understand all the variables in Abramowitz calculus but I think we’re seeing historical trends lessen to an extent. For instance mid-term elections should see the party in power of the White House loose seats in Congress. Both Clinton and Bush beat those trends in ‘98 and ‘02 respectively. McCain is a Republican and so is Bush, but his “maverick” appeal puts a good bit of distance between himself and Bush. Lastly I have always felt that Obama probably has an artificial, built-in premium in his polling data of 3-4 points that won’t be realized on election day. This essentially comes from so-called “white guilt” polling when a white person is polled he or she quickly gives a nod to Obama and feels good about it, but in the voting booth may think twice about the matter and ultimately vote for McCain. I’m not being mean or insensitive in pointing this out and I would say that collectively speaking whites vote for black candidates in far greater rates than do blacks for whites when there is a black and white candidate running for the same office.

By Gary

September 11, 2008 4:26 PM | Link to this

Whatever….no national poll has come out this election with any candidate getting 51%, much less 54% of the national vote. All we need to know about Abramowitz is his continuing campaign for a new Democratic majority and how in awe he is with Obama. This is not a typical year nor is it a typical election. We have the first African American Presidential candidate ever and we have a guy who is viewed as a mavarick in his own party. The generic ballot earlier this year was 15-20 points in favor of the Democrats. Obama has always ran below that number and McCain above it. Now that number is getting much closer as it was registered this past week as being between 4% and 9% for Democrats. Again, McCain is running better than that and Obama behind it. Not your typical election sir. The typical election and one that would have supported his system would be Clinton vs Romney or Clinton vs Thompson. Against either of them she would have probably brought in 54% and over 390 EVs.

By galoco_lee

September 11, 2008 4:42 PM | Link to this

You can put lipstick on that pig

By Rich

September 11, 2008 4:46 PM | Link to this

“The typical election and one that would have supported his system would be Clinton vs Romney or Clinton vs Thompson.”

Clinton as the candidate would be typical? No concession that a woman in the top slot would affect the matchup? And she would draw 54% of the vote?

Beside the point at this stage, really. Still amusing to see 15 years of half the country hating Hillary Clinton has suddenly been forgotten.

By Opaque

September 11, 2008 5:16 PM | Link to this

I hardly think Abramowitz is campaigning for a new Democrat majority considering that he has predicted the last two terms with Bush. When the news isn’t to their liking, the Republicans have to find fault with the messenger - hell, they’d find fault with the virgin Mary if she was the one giving them the news they don’t want to hear.

Close elections have people glued to their TV’s and the news and it’s great for ratings. When was the last presidential election that had a candidate way out in front in the middle of September? Even when they got clobbered in November??? McCain’s was trailing for so long and Palin came around at just the right time for the polls to get interesting. But let’s be real - there aren’t THAT many people that didn’t already have their minds made up BEFORE the conventions started.

And let’s go back to the basics: The Republicans have had the white house for the last 8 years and our economy is in worse shape now than it has been in since the Great Depression - and many think we’re on our way there. The number of people that died in 9-11 is less than half the amount that have died in Iraq - and Bin Laden is still alive and kicking. Do you honestly think one of the MANY people who have lost their homes due to foreclosure are going to vote for McCain??? Whether or not Bush was responsible, it happened during HIS WATCH. This is a LARGE number of people and they are ANGRY. Maybe they haven’t been polled - maybe they don’t have a home phone anymore for anyone to call them? Polls only call home telephone numbers. Ever think about that??

You will have people who will not vote for Obama simply because he is black. That is a fact. But that number pales in comparison to the people who see nothing changing if we elect this 72 year old man who calls himself a “maverick” and touts about all he’s going to change when the guy has been in the Senate for the last g’zillion years and has had plenty of opportunity to do something newsworthy (and although I can appreciate his POW experience, that ain’t cutting it). If he truly was a maverick, he would have gone with the VP he wanted to instead of caving into the evangelical right that have hijacked the Republican party, but he was too afraid of ticking them off, so along comes barbi doll Sara Palin who is so cute, she’ll make everyone forget how little experience she has and how extreme right wing she is. Sorry - there will be some that fall for it, but that percentage falls way short of the people that have brains.

But just watch and see just how the women vote screws McCain in the end. They talk about the white people that say they’ll vote for Obama but deep down won’t be able to because he is black, well, that number is going to pale in comparison to the number of woman who say they are on the McCain Palin bandwagon and have no intention of voting for that pretty little thing that’s already giving their husband a rise in his Levi’s. Think I’m nuts? wait and see. and btw, I’m a woman.

By Opaque

September 11, 2008 5:55 PM | Link to this

I hardly think Abramowitz is campaigning for a new Democrat majority considering that he has predicted the last two terms with Bush. When the news isn’t to their liking, the Republicans have to find fault with the messenger - hell, they’d find fault with the virgin Mary if she was the one giving them the news they don’t want to hear.

Close elections have people glued to their TV’s and the news and it’s great for ratings. When was the last presidential election that had a candidate way out in front in the middle of September? Even when they got clobbered in November??? McCain’s was trailing for so long and Palin came around at just the right time for the polls to get interesting. But let’s be real - there aren’t THAT many people that didn’t already have their minds made up BEFORE the conventions started.

And let’s go back to the basics: The Republicans have had the white house for the last 8 years and our economy is in worse shape now than it has been in since the Great Depression - and many think we’re on our way there. The number of people that died in 9-11 is less than half the amount that have died in Iraq - and Bin Laden is still alive and kicking. Do you honestly think one of the MANY people who have lost their homes due to foreclosure are going to vote for McCain??? Whether or not Bush was responsible, it happened during HIS WATCH. This is a LARGE number of people and they are ANGRY. Maybe they haven’t been polled - maybe they don’t have a home phone anymore for anyone to call them? Polls only call home telephone numbers. Ever think about that??

You will have people who will not vote for Obama simply because he is black. That is a fact. But that number pales in comparison to the people who see nothing changing if we elect this 72 year old man who calls himself a “maverick” and touts about all he’s going to change when the guy has been in the Senate for the last g’zillion years and has had plenty of opportunity to do something newsworthy (and although I can appreciate his POW experience, that ain’t cutting it). If he truly was a maverick, he would have gone with the VP he wanted to instead of caving into the evangelical right that have hijacked the Republican party, but he was too afraid of ticking them off, so along comes barbi doll Sara Palin who is so cute, she’ll make everyone forget how little experience she has and how extreme right wing she is. Sorry - there will be some that fall for it, but that percentage falls way short of the people that have brains.

But just watch and see just how the women vote screws McCain in the end. They talk about the white people that say they’ll vote for Obama but deep down won’t be able to because he is black, well, that number is going to pale in comparison to the number of woman who say they are on the McCain Palin bandwagon and have no intention of voting for that pretty little thing that’s already giving their husband a rise in his Levi’s. Think I’m nuts? wait and see. and btw, I’m a woman.

By Opaque

September 11, 2008 5:55 PM | Link to this

I hardly think Abramowitz is campaigning for a new Democrat majority considering that he has predicted the last two terms with Bush. When the news isn’t to their liking, the Republicans have to find fault with the messenger - hell, they’d find fault with the virgin Mary if she was the one giving them the news they don’t want to hear.

Close elections have people glued to their TV’s and the news and it’s great for ratings. When was the last presidential election that had a candidate way out in front in the middle of September? Even when they got clobbered in November??? McCain’s was trailing for so long and Palin came around at just the right time for the polls to get interesting. But let’s be real - there aren’t THAT many people that didn’t already have their minds made up BEFORE the conventions started.

And let’s go back to the basics: The Republicans have had the white house for the last 8 years and our economy is in worse shape now than it has been in since the Great Depression - and many think we’re on our way there. The number of people that died in 9-11 is less than half the amount that have died in Iraq - and Bin Laden is still alive and kicking. Do you honestly think one of the MANY people who have lost their homes due to foreclosure are going to vote for McCain??? Whether or not Bush was responsible, it happened during HIS WATCH. This is a LARGE number of people and they are ANGRY. Maybe they haven’t been polled - maybe they don’t have a home phone anymore for anyone to call them? Polls only call home telephone numbers. Ever think about that??

You will have people who will not vote for Obama simply because he is black. That is a fact. But that number pales in comparison to the people who see nothing changing if we elect this 72 year old man who calls himself a “maverick” and touts about all he’s going to change when the guy has been in the Senate for the last g’zillion years and has had plenty of opportunity to do something newsworthy (and although I can appreciate his POW experience, that ain’t cutting it). If he truly was a maverick, he would have gone with the VP he wanted to instead of caving into the evangelical right that have hijacked the Republican party, but he was too afraid of ticking them off, so along comes barbi doll Sara Palin who is so cute, she’ll make everyone forget how little experience she has and how extreme right wing she is. Sorry - there will be some that fall for it, but that percentage falls way short of the people that have brains.

But just watch and see just how the women vote screws McCain in the end. They talk about the white people that say they’ll vote for Obama but deep down won’t be able to because he is black, well, that number is going to pale in comparison to the number of woman who say they are on the McCain Palin bandwagon and have no intention of voting for that pretty little thing that’s already giving their husband a rise in his Levi’s. Think I’m nuts? wait and see. and btw, I’m a woman.

By MaxieGrrrl

September 11, 2008 6:18 PM | Link to this

Abramowitz was my Poli Sci professor. He’s almost always on the money.

By Luke

September 11, 2008 6:35 PM | Link to this

You and your prof. are wrong MaxiePads. Obama is going to lose and Biden will help him do it.

By Gary

September 11, 2008 9:13 PM | Link to this

What I meant that typical election with Clinton is that she would be the typical Democratic candidate in an election like this with an unpopular President and that yes given the circumstances in this country I could see her pulling 54%. I hate it and really do not trust the woman, but I have conceded that had she been the nominee then yes she would have won the election. Also I don’t shoot the messenger just because I support Republicans. Abramowitz has written many articles this year claiming that the election was over before it even started and has stated that the Democrats will build a permanent majority. If he was truly a political science professor he would know that a week is a long time in politics and 11 months is pretty much a generation. His model does work in a normal election year……however as I have stated before this is not a normal election year. Agree or not, that is my opinion and it is playing out that way so far with 54 days to go.

Opaque….read your history. The country is not in its most worse shape now since the depression. The 60s and 70s were statistically worse. Polls also have always sampled small amounts of the public. This “some people might not have phones” has been an excuse by the democratic party since polling began when the numbers don’t show what they like. Enough with kicking that dead horse.

By davide

September 11, 2008 10:21 PM | Link to this

When the votes are counted the millions of first time voters and those who have been out of the process will make the difference. Obama will enjoy a very decisive win

By davide

September 11, 2008 10:21 PM | Link to this

When the votes are counted the millions of first time voters and those who have been out of the process will make the difference. Obama will enjoy a very decisive win. They are not factored in the polls.

By davide

September 11, 2008 10:22 PM | Link to this

When the votes are counted the millions of first time voters and those who have been out of the process will make the difference. Obama will enjoy a very decisive win. They are not factored in the polls.

By davide

September 11, 2008 10:22 PM | Link to this

When the votes are counted the millions of first time voters and those who have been out of the process will make the difference. Obama will enjoy a very decisive win. They are not factored in the polls.

By MacFaux

September 12, 2008 1:26 AM | Link to this

“When the votes are counted the millions of first time voters and those who have been out of the process will make the difference.”

Hope so, maybe..but what is disconcerting is that no pollster seems to be overtly factoring or at least mentioning what number they are plugging in for the Bradley Effect. I would be most interested to know what Prof. A has factored…I doubt it is the historical 10%, but I have gut feeling it is 3-4% at a min. Just sayin.

By bobfromcanton

September 12, 2008 7:01 AM | Link to this

I agree with Robby about the “white guilt” polling. One of the political commentators called it the “Bradley effect” for the former Mayor of Los Angeles that ran for Governor. The polling for Bradley was way up and then on election day all the “white guilt” polling turned for the other candidate. We only have a few weeks to find out who is right about this one. It certainly is not like any election I have seen in my 50+ years.

By James

September 12, 2008 8:24 AM | Link to this

Gee - ya think the professor has an agenda?!

By Geez

September 12, 2008 11:17 AM | Link to this

Well, James, since he (correctly) predicted Bush in the last two elections, PROBABLY NOT. Did you forget to read the other comments before posting this?

By Ms. Dee

September 12, 2008 11:30 AM | Link to this

To Opague and Davide. You guys are right on the money! My sentiments EXACTLY.

OBAMA ‘08 - ALL THE WAY!

By Ms. Dee

September 12, 2008 11:35 AM | Link to this

To Opague and Davide. You guys are right on the money! My sentiments EXACTLY. Opague - I just LOVE the part about the pretty little thing that puts a rise in their Levis! Too funny! Love you girl!

OBAMA ‘08 - ALL THE WAY!

By Ms. Dee

September 12, 2008 11:39 AM | Link to this

To Opague and Davide. You guys are right on the money! My sentiments EXACTLY. Opague - I just LOVE the part about the pretty little thing that puts a rise in their Levis! Too funny! Love you girl!

OBAMA ‘08 - ALL THE WAY!

By Will Jones

September 12, 2008 1:07 PM | Link to this

Did Mr. Abramowitz have an “in” with the Roman Catholics on the Supreme Court who unconstitutionally appointed Bush POTUS, as the homosexual draft-dodger was trotted out with the purple carbuncle on his cheek to gracelessly acknowledge the fraud? Or with the corrupt in Ohio found by the GAO to have cheated the win in 2004?

Any prognosticator failing to take into account the known fraud in our electoral system, biased toward the same faction which has yet to be brought to justice for the finance of Hitler, the assassinations of Kennedy and King, Vietnam, IranContra and 9/11, should, rather than study Political Science, study Political Economy: the discipline which makes it so easy to “follow the money” and identify false-elites and corrupt factions throughout history. The Adams-Jefferson Postroad Correspondence is an excellent primer in historical factional analysis. All citizens worthy of the name “American” should study it and assist in the extirpation of the traitors now in power.

If Obama is “permitted” to take office next January it will only be because the Pseudo-Aritoi recognizes the fact that their crimes are so obvious they risk universal damnation by the Sovereign People, the Yeoman Artisanry, of Our Land.

Bush and Cheney must be tried and fried that America prosper once more. They yet live because they work for Big Oil and the Military Industrial Complex…just like whitetrash McCain and Palin.

http://www.theamericanfundament.blogspot.com

By Rarl Kove

September 12, 2008 1:35 PM | Link to this

I would like to point out that Will Jones is you typical Obama supporter.

By Will Jones

September 12, 2008 2:37 PM | Link to this

A typical Obama supporter is a patriotic American able to hear the Song of America in his speeches. It is a fulfillment of the Dream of the Ages to see a man of color personify the utopian vision of the Black, White, Gentile and Jew Whigs who created this Great Nation in 1776.

May we soon be rid of those in the Fifth Column who so despise *E Pluribus Unum” to off-shore their jobs and profits to destroy the People and Principles upon which the American Dream depends.

Veterans, tradesmen, men and women of faith, healers, thinkers, dreamers, Americans: those unencumbered by the perverse ravages of that which The Founder, Thomas Jefferson, identified for all posterity to recognize as “the real Anti-Christ” can see in Senator Obama a new hope to rid Our Country of the treasonous faction which assassinates our leaders, creates false wars, debases our currency, manipulates the oil industry, and continues to serve the foreign interests from which we escaped to build this once great bastion of Liberty and Justice.

Obama supporters share his vision: free of oppression and corruption, with Liberty and Justice for All, it is the American Dream rid of the nightmare of corporate fascist Nazi traitors feeding off The People and Our Armed Forces through lies and eternal war.

America’s Founder, Author and Prophet to Wm Crawford “Every society has a right to fix the fundamental principles of its association, and to say to all individuals, that, if they contemplate pursuits beyond the limits of these principles, and involving dangers which the society chooses to avoid, they must go somewhere else for their exercise; that we want no citizens, and still less ephemeral and pseudo-citizens, on such terms. We may exclude them from our territory, as we do persons infected with disease. Such is the situation of our country. We have most abundant resources of happiness within ourselves, which we may enjoy in peace and safety, without permitting a few citizens, infected with the mania of rambling and gambling, to bring danger on the great mass engaged in innocent and safe pursuits at home. In your letter to Fisk, you have fairly stated the alternatives between which we are to choose: 1, licentious commerce and gambling speculations for a few, with eternal war for the many; or, 2, restricted commerce, peace, and steady occupations for all. If any State in the Union will declare that it prefers separation with the first alternative, to a continuance in union without it, I have no hesitation in saying, “let us separate.” I would rather the States should withdraw, which are for unlimited commerce and war, and confederate with those alone which are for peace and agriculture. I know that every nation in Europe would join in sincere amity with the latter, and hold the former at arm’s length, by jealousies, prohibitions, restrictions, vexations and war.”

Obama at his best follows Thomas Jefferson. John Kennedy came out of “Rome” as an American war hero to embrace Jefferson’s wisdom. No American can do better. Following Kennedy’s order to withdraw our military from Rome’s fiefdom in Indochina, Jeffersonian historical awareness was employed by Martin King in his Riverside Church speech against our involvement in Vietnam … getting him killed by the same Roman Catholic CIA and FBI…overseen by George H.W. Bush and Richard Nixon.

The nomination of whitetrash, Hitler-in-drag Sarah Palin as VP for the GOP proves their belief that America is really stupid and wants fascism and enslavement by Rome’s Fifth Column and Big Oil.

I’m guessing, regardless of whatever cheat Karl Rove - whose father was an “out” homosexual in Palm Springs and whose grandfather was a state governor under Hitler and the Nazis in Germany - tries this time, the vast majority of Americans know better and will, by their votes cast, try to make elect Barack Obama.

In any event like most Obama supports this veteran, tradesman, husband, father and patriot believes in the One G-d of Our Creed by Annuit Coeptis, and is convinced that Righteousness and Truth will prevail in this Promised Land covenanted to us through Our Founders and ancestors.

Repudiate the Debt. Hang Bush and Cheney. Rid and expropriate the land of any recalcitrant Tories - to the Tory Oak - unable to be “reformed” to the vision and ideals which make America Exceptional in all World History.

Bring on your racist, fascist traitors who support adulterer, martial incompetent, “married to the Mob” McCain and his latest trollop: Hitler in drag Sarah Palin.

Yours won’t be a clean fight but victory will go to those who love America and Our Creed and recognize in Obama, though clay-footed like the rest of us, a genius of stature and a man of grace and humility who understands, has lived, and bespeaks the American Dream…for All to share, by G-d in fact. Truth and G-d is knowable: America’s Whig Founders were correct

By FredM

September 12, 2008 8:14 PM | Link to this

Not having seen the models, I can’t discuss Alan’s calculus, but his arithmetic is lacking! Give Barr a couple of percent, Nader and McKinney, a percent or so and maybe the result is functionally the same, but third party candidates have had substantial impacts in recent years, especially 2002. No Nader and we’d have had no Bush.

By WereBear

September 19, 2008 10:57 PM | Link to this

In recent Pew Research Center surveys, only about 10% of respondents in landline samples are under age 30, which is roughly half of what it should be according to the U.S. Census.

And the young tend to be more liberal and break Obama.

Aside from that, there’s the fact that Palin is only solid with part of her own fan base. Women who truly believe the social conservative line on women’s roles have been the most openly critical of Palin taking on the VP job with five children, one an infant.

And then there’s the fact that McCain would be off-message… if he had any idea of what his message was five minutes ago.

Most pollsters feel the “Bradley effect” has aged out of the population. New polls do not detect it.

By Don

September 19, 2008 11:38 PM | Link to this

I am a Canadian so I just get to watch. The only comment I would like to make is that you have far too great a country to be represented by someone like Bush again. This Obama seems very bright and solid. McCain maybe should have been the candidate in 2000. Good luck down there.

By Clint Cooper

September 20, 2008 12:44 AM | Link to this

First off, the Bradley effect has greatly reduced over the years. On top of that, the vast majority of Americans see Obama as a “different kind of black candidate.”

Secondly, if we were going to see the Bradley effect rear its ugly head we certainly would have seen it in places like Oregon, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Texas, and Wisconsin. As a matter of fact, Obama actually OUTPOLLED his apparent percentage among white voters in almost every state this election cycle.

Thirdly, there is a huge reverse Bradley effect going on in states that have a large African American population. That’s why Obama was only polling about 15 points ahead of Clinton in Georgia and ended up winning it by 33 points. He also vastly outperformed his pre-election standing with blacks in MS, AL, SC, NC and VA. And black turnout was almost always higher than the pre-election polls predicted.

Lastly, a lot of polling is now done with robocalls. It’s pretty hard for someone to “hide” their true voting intentions with a robotic voice on the other end of the line.

All this talk of the Bradley effect seems silly to me. Just wait until election day and watch the absolutely massive black turnout in places like Virginia. It will be truly stunning.

By AmericanUnity

September 20, 2008 2:06 AM | Link to this

“”I’m a 52 year old white male”“.

Barack Obama knows the Constitution. He and Biden have read and can quote The Federalist Papers.

We need a brilliant President like Obama. My wife and I have been waiting 40 years for someone who we felt loved this country enough, and it’s citizens enough, to finally set America back on course.

I live in Nashville. Even my moderate Republican friends are voting for Obama. Pargmatic people want a prudent and wise President.

20 years of NeoCons slowly rising have proven their philosophy is only good for the uber wealthy of our citizens.

OBAMA-BIDEN ‘08

By jphn

September 20, 2008 5:00 AM | Link to this

I love hearing that 52 year old white dude =) I hope No i pray we elect him other wise we will be 3rd world in 4 years it think it is that bad.

By freepatriot

September 20, 2008 5:34 AM | Link to this

the Bradley affect might be 3 or 4 percent, but the registration numbers lately will overwhelm that

the real interesting thing about this election is the “Hidden Repuglitards”

nobody in Cali seems to be a repuglitard these days

the registration numbers say they’re still out there, but ou rarely hear an ordinary citizen admit to being one

that is gonna amount to 10 or 15 points off mcsame’s score

so the bradley affect will be tripled by the “Too ashamed to be a repuglitard” affect

watch and see

By Scott

September 20, 2008 5:47 AM | Link to this

I would love to believe the “perfesser” but I am afraid he underestimates the effect of the “bubba” vote. I think you can shave at least 5 points of Obama’s lead at anytime due to unspoken racism and add it right to McCain.

That leaves us with a Pop vote tie of 49 49 and likely McCain victories in OH PA and FLA which means a narrow EC victory for McCain.

By Samatva

September 20, 2008 7:12 PM | Link to this

I would recommend that anyone wanting to form an opinion go over to the Secretary of State’s web site and take a look at the voter registration numbers. The 18-24 group has grown enough to make a difference in this election. This is also the group least likely to have a home phone number for the pollsters to call…

My bar bet (if I drank or bet) would be that Obama carries Georgia as well as the country. McCain really thinks we are stupid and/or superficial, judging from his VP pick….

By James

October 20, 2008 6:12 PM | Link to this

First of all, it’s Dr. Abramowitz… And second of all, he’s generally fairly politically moderate, and was wary of Obama’s politics during the primaries. So, his statistics carry no bias in any way. Also, during the senate election, he called the number of seat changes within two. If there’s anybody I would trust on election prediction, it’s Dr. Abramowitz. I would assume he took the “white guilt” factor into consideration in his poll, but we won’t know until we read the entire report.