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Thursday, August 7, 2008

The pressure on John Edwards to address fatherhood allegations

Some Democratic insiders are saying John Edwards needs to address allegations by the National Enquirer that he fathered a former campaign worker’s child — if the former presidential candidate wants to keep a speaking role in this month’s Democratic National Convention.

The Charlotte Observer, in Edwards’ home state of North Carolina, has this today:

“He absolutely does have to (resolve it). If it’s not true, he has to issue a stronger denial,” said Gary Pearce, the Democratic strategist who ran Edwards’ 1998 Senate race. “It’s a very damaging thing. … The big media has tried to be responsible and handle this with kid gloves, but it’s clearly getting ready to bust out. If it’s not true, he’s got to stand up and say, ‘This is not true. That is not my child, and I’m going to take legal action against the people who are spreading these lies.’ It’s not enough to say, ‘That’s tabloid trash.’”

The national convention is intended to showcase party unity and rally Democrats around the party’s nominee. Prime-time speakers generate enthusiasm for the candidate and the party’s platform. Edwards is widely regarded as a rousing speaker, particularly on poverty, and still has as many as 19 delegates pledged to him, making him a logical choice for a high-profile role under normal circumstances.

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Smoothing out Mr. Obama’s wild ride

Alan Abramowitz, the Emory University political scientist, knows that you’re confused by the day-by-day measurements of of the presidential race.

No, “confused” isn’t the right word. Whiplashed. That’s the word.

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At right is a chart of Gallup’s daily tracking — since the end of the Democratic contest — of Barack Obama’s margin over Republican John McCain. Abramowitz originally posted this Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Here’s is the Emory prof’s tongue-in-cheek analysis of the resulting chaos:

Look—Obama is surging! Oh my gosh, Obama’s support is collapsing. No wait, he’s surging again! Oh no, he’s collapsing again! What happened to that nine point lead? McCain’s strategy must be working. All is lost for Dems—the end is near! They should have nominated Hillary!”

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But in this second chart, Abramowitz cuts through the daily chaff by plotting out the Gallup trackings on a 10-day average. Obama’s national lead over McCain evens out and becomes a relatively constant margin of three percentage points.

Says Abramowitz: “Never mind.”

Click here for a large image of both charts.

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Of an alleged Obama conspiracy, and more drama at the gas pumps

InsiderAdvantage has an article in which Kenneth Walker, a strategist for defeated U.S. Senate candidate Vernon Jones, alleges that the Barack Obama campaign had a hand in Democrat Jim Martin’s victory on Tuesday.

Says Walker:

“I know for a fact, as Vernon’s strategist, that there was a meeting in Sen. Harry Reid’s office with David Axelrod from Obama’s campaign, and there was an agreement Obama’s campaign would help Jim Martin with the direct mail linking Vernon and George Bush.”

Walker does not address why Obama might have thought Jones’ candidacy worth the alleged torpedo. In any case, it’s hard to conceive of a presidential presumptive’s right-hand man and a Senate majority leader from Nevada involving themselves in glossy mail-outs sent to Macon.

The Obama campaign denies any collusion. “Neither the Senator, nor the campaign, took sides in the race,” said Obama spokeswoman Caroline Adelman.

Instead, Adelman pushed a noon Obama event at an Atlanta gas station — conveniently located opposite Manuel’s Tavern.

U.S. Rep. Hank Johnson will be there to discuss the Democratic presidential candidate’s energy policy. No tire pressure gauges will be handed out.

This comes two days after Cobb County Republicans, including one congressman, used a local filling station as a backdrop for their political theater. Adelman insisted that the Obama press conference was not a copycat event — that it has long been on the schedule.

In Columbus today, the Obama campaign has U.S. Rep. Sanford Bishop at yet another gas station.

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