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Tuesday, August 5, 2008
Welcome to Jones vs. Martin central
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Good evening. It’s now after 7 p.m., and polls should be shutting down. Here’s the plan:
Click here for the AJC’s up-to-the-minute results. County-by-county returns offered by Secretary of State Karen Handel can be found here.
My AJC colleague Ben Smith has been kind enough to give up his evening to crunch county-by-county returns generated by the Democratic run-off for U.S. Senate into something a little more logical — which we hope to draw on through the night.
Keep checking in. We’ll add updates, with time stamps, to this same file through the night.
At 7:40 p.m.
Atlanta attorney Jim Martin has an overall 59.3 percent to 40.7 percent lead over DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, with 3 percent of precincts reporting.
The first sprinkling of returns is too thin to make any judgments, but here’s what we’re looking at:
— Jones leads Martin 60 to 40 percent in the 16 counties where African-Americans make up the majority of those registered. Martin leads 55 to 45 percent in the remaining 143.
— We’ve divided the state into north Georgia and south Georgia, with a line of demarcation that stretches from Richmond to Jasper to Heard counties.
Martin has an early advantage of more than 2-to-1 coming out of north Georgia. But in south Georgia, Jones has the edge with 57 percent of the vote.
At 8:05 p.m.: With 36 percent of the vote in, Republican challenger Jim Butterworth is pounding incumbent state Sen. Nancy Schaefer of Turnerville, 61 to 39 percent. That’s a rare defeat by an incumbent — whose downfall began when she jumped into the 10th District congressional race, and then jumped out.
At 8:10 p.m.: This could be significant. Using 8 p.m. numbers, 25,453 votes have been counted from counties with majority black registration. Martin leads those counties with nearly 58 percent of the vote.
Martin is leading in nine of 49 counties in which African-American voters outnumbered whites in the July 15 primary. In that primary, he carried only three of them.
But overall, with 19 percent of the vote in statewide, Martin’s lead over Jones has shrunk to 55 percent.
At 8:20 p.m.: Again using 8 p.m. numbers, Martin is leading Jones in north Georgia with 65 percent of the vote, which is no surprise. But Martin has now taken a lead in south Georgia as well. He leads by 53.5 percent.
At 8:25 p.m.Cobb County, a rising Democratic county, is handing Jones the back of its hand. With three-quarters of its vote in, Martin is leading with 76 percent of the vote. This is developing into an early trend — and possibly an early night.
At 8:40 p.m.:Athens/Clarke County, a firm Democratic bastion, is also going heavily toward Martin, by about 72 percent with 18 of 26 precincts reporting.
At 8:50 p.m.: The behemoths of Fulton and DeKalb have yet to roll in, but Cobb, Clayton and Gwinnett have significant batches of votes counted.
Martin has nailed 72 percent of the vote in metro Atlanta so far. He’s leading with 61 percent of the vote.
At 8:53 p.m.: The DeKalb County web site has Vernon Jones at 4,736 or 30 percent of that county’s vote. Jim Martin has 10,978 or 70 percent. No indication where the votes are from, but they represent 34 percent of all precincts.
One bit of good news for Jones: Statewide, among counties with majority African-American registration, Jones leads with 55 percent of the vote. But Martin still leads in north and south Georgia.
At 9:10 p.m.: It’s about time to call this one. With 84 percent of the DeKalb County vote in, it’s 38 percent for Jones, or 20,417; and 62 percent for Martin, or 33,910 votes.
Martin leads in every one of the Insider’s statewide categories:
— Martin’s pulling 68 percent of the vote in metro Atlanta, and in the rest of Georgia he leads by better than 2-to-1;
— Martin leads 2-to-1 in north Georgia, but is also just barely squeaking by Jones in south Georgia;
— Martin has 54 percent of the vote from the 16 counties with majority African-American voter registration, and is pulling 61 percent of the vote elsewhere.
At 9:25 p.m.: In Fulton County, a third of the vote is in and Martin is up 3-to-1. Jones is down by 40,000 votes statewide, with 81 percent of precincts reporting. It’s hard to see where the DeKalb County CEO might find the ballots to pull this out.
At 9:34 p.m.DeKalb County Vernon Jones has just conceded defeat in his Democratic bid for U.S. Senate. Atlanta attorney and former state lawmaker Jim Martin is the nominee who will face Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss.
At 9:41 p.m.: With statewide returns at 86 percent, Jones was leading in these 54 counties, with Chatham, Dougherty and Muscogee being the largest:
Appling, Baker, Baldwin, Ben Hill, Brooks, Burke, Calhoun, Camden, Charlton, Chatham, Chattahoochee, Clay, Colquitt, Columbia, Crawford, Decatur, Dooly, Dougherty, Effingham, Emanuel, Evans, Glynn, Grady, Greene, Hancock, Harris, Jeff Davis, Jefferson, Laurens, Lee, Liberty, Lincoln, Macon, McIntosh, Mitchell, Muscogee, Peach, Pierce, Putnam, Quitman, Randolph, Richmond, Sumter, Taliaferro, Taylor, Thomas, Tift, Tooms, Twiggs, Upson, Ware, Warren and Webster.
None of them from metro Atlanta. In DeKalb County, with 99 percent of the vote in, Martin beat the DeKalb CEO with 15,000 votes.
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Libertarian Buckley gets his invitation from Chambliss to join the debate
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Allen Buckley, the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate, has gotten his invitation to a debate with Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss.
Whoops. Make that republic incumbent Saxby Chambliss.
The assumption is that both Democrats, Vernon Jones and Jim Martin, have received something similar. There’s no mention of how many meetings we might anticipate, or in what format. Perhaps the most immediate significance is that Chambliss is confident enough to invite a third party who — in a close race — might cause problems for him.
Also, the language of the invitation gives an indication of the high ground that Chambliss intends to seize simply by initiating the topic:
“After today’s vote, the people of Georgia have a right to know what distinguishes their United States Senator from the other candidates. A crucial part of that process for Georgians will be public debates. Debates are an important part of the election process because they allow the voters to see the contrast between candidates for themselves — unfiltered by ads.
“After today’s democrat runoff, my staff will be in contact with your staff to make initial debate arrangements….
Pay no attention to Chambliss’ down-casing of “democrat.” He didn’t capitalize “republican” either.
But the incumbent does engage in the annoying game that members of the GOP like to play — pretending that, unlike “Republic,” the word “Democrat” can’t be converted to an adjective.
Maybe someday, someone will explain to me what that’s all about. The thing is, it doesn’t sound smooth. It introduces an arhythmia into the sentence. And that reflects on the speaker/writer, not the Democratic subject.
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The thin gruel of democracy
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Number-crunchers in courthouses across Georgia can expect some easy lifting tonight, if early voting is any guide.
About 2 percent of Georgia’s active, registered voters cast early ballots in the run-off, whether in person or by mail, according to Secretary of State Karen Handel’s office.
That’s for both parties.
More than four times as many voters cast early ballots in run-off elections in ’06. Three times as many cast early ballots in ’04.
Matt Carrothers, spokesman for Handel, sent these early voting run-off stats for some perspective:
— 2006 run-off for lieutenant governor, Democratic: 5.3 percent;
— 2006 run-off for secretary of state, Democratic: 5 percent;
— 2006 run-off for secretary of state, Republican: 4 percent;
— 2006 run-off for agriculture, Republican: 4 percent;
— 2004 U.S. Senate run-off, Democratic: 6 percent.
DeKalb County may be the exception to the dismal numbers. Election officials there are seeing an unexpectedly large turnout — as far as run-offs go — with voters coming out because of several contested run-offs, all in the Democratic column.
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An afternoon message from Vernon Jones
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Someone has posted on YouTube a last-minute robo-call made by Vernon Jones, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate. It’s an audio file attached to a still photo.
You can’t mistake the sound of urgency in the DeKalb County CEO’s voice. Click on the still photo, or read this partial transcript:
“I need you right now, you fine people in Fulton County. I need you to come out to the polls and vote. The turnout is very low, and you all can make a difference. I want to be your U.S. senator. I want to address high gasoline prices and fix congestion in metro Atlanta.
“Please come out right now. It’s a run-off. I need your help. I want to be your senator. I want to work hard for you. Too many people made too many sacrifices for us to vote. We need you to come out now, at the sound of my voice. If you’re on the sofa, if you just made it home and you’re tired from work — I know you’re tired, but please get up, go to the polls and vote…..”
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Take a listen: Eric Johnson on those donations to Democrats
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Senate President pro tem Eric Johnson (R-Savannah), who anticipates running in ’10 for lieutenant governor, was on WGAU (1340AM) in Athens this morning.
Host Tim Bryant passed on a sound clip, which included the Republican’s explanation for giving campaign contributions to Democrats — as a means of building bipartisan support for issues such as school vouchers.
The Cobb County GOP last week voted to reprimand Johnson for donations made in a contested House race, but the Senate leader isn’t backing down.
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Free air from people who know a thing or two about the topic
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just got a call from Scott Johnson, chairman of the Cobb County Republican party. He and a few friends have decided to fill the Election Day lull with a bit of guerilla theater.
At noon, Johnson and fellow GOPers — U.S. Rep. Phil Gingrey will be one, state Sen. Chip Rogers another — will plant themselves at the Chevron at Roswell and Johnson Ferry roads, and offer tire pressure checks for the gas station’s patrons.
The idea is to demonstrate what Republicans say is an overemphasis on conservation — and an underemphasis on offshore drilling — Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.
But if you ask politely, the volunteers may scrape the bugs off your windshield, too — just as in olden days.
The Cobb display is far from an isolated event. On Monday, at an Obama appearance in Michigan, supporters of Republican John McCain passed out tire pressure gauges.
But Caroline Adelman, the new spokeswoman for the Obama campaign in Georgia, said that, for most people, the high cost of gasoline isn’t a proper topic for ridicule. Keeping tires properly inflated is hardly the core of Obama’s energy plans, she said, but it is something recommended by people who know something about cars.
She passed us this paragraph generated by NASCAR two years ago:
“With gas prices now hovering around $3, smart drivers care. Savvy consumers are seeking to increase fuel economy and the life of their tires by paying more attention to those rubber objects that are attached to their vehicle…With escalating fuel prices, the time is now for drivers to focus on simple things like proper tire pressure to maximize tire performance and increase fuel economy.”
Here’s the top of a Detroit Free Press piece on the politics of energy symbolism:
Over the past few days, McCain’s campaign has needled Obama for saying that keeping tires inflated would save enough oil to obviate the need for expanded offshore drilling. Republicans tried to link Obama’s comments with Jimmy Carter’s exhortations to save on heating bills by wearing sweaters.
“We could save all the oil that they’re talking about getting off drilling if everybody was just inflating their tires and getting regular tune-ups. You could actually save just as much,” Obama told a rally Thursday in Springfield, Mo.
The Republican National Committee offered Monday to send reporters tire gauges as a stunt to mark Obama’s birthday, and McCain’s campaign sold an “Obama Energy Plan” tire gauge for a $25 donation.
“We need to offshore drill for oil and natural gas. We need to drill here and we need to drill now,” McCain said Monday at a campaign stop in Pennsylvania. “We’re not going to achieve energy independence by inflating our tires.”
But the numbers give Obama a strong argument.
Tire pressure checks have been a key fuel-saving tip that automakers, tire companies and government experts have recommended for years. On its fuel economy Web site, the Environmental Protection Agency estimates that underinflated tires can shave up to 3% from a vehicle’s fuel economy.
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