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DEL.ICIO.USAtlanta actuarial firm: McCain has 8.4 “healthy” years left, and Obama has 21.9
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
An Atlanta actuarial firm says both presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama “can reasonably be expected to serve two full terms in good health.”
But just barely.
The 30-year-old Bragg actuarial company, which specializes in morbidity and mortality calculations, gives 71-year-old McCain a “healthy expectancy” of 8.4 years, taking into account his four bouts with melanoma of the skin.
Barack Obama, who turned 47 today, can expect 21.9 years of good health — a forecast shortened by 10 percent or so by his history of cigarette smoking.
“Either candidate can be expected to serve two full terms, without age or health being an issue,” said John M. Bragg, the firm chairman.
The company drew a distinction “health expectancy” and the more usual term “life expectancy.”
“In this analysis, ‘healthy’ means the person does not require the care provided by an assisted living facility and is free of Alzheimer’s disease,” Bragg said.
Age may be second only to race as a volatile issue in this presidential campaign. McCain, who has another birthday on Aug. 29, has taken pains to portray himself as a man of both vigor and good genes — sometimes bringing along his 96-year-old mother to campaign events.
James C. Brooks, a senior Bragg actuary, said the firm ran the numbers on Obama and McCain out of the same curiosity that most voters have.
Brooks said McCain’s health expectancy because of the candidate’s experience with skin cancer. “Less so than the cigarette smoking of Barack, but more so because he’s older,” he said.
The years assigned to each candidates are averages based on demographically similar pools of people, Brooks said. “They’re not predictors,” he said. Either candidate could beat his expectancy numbers, or fall short.
Accuracy could also depend on whether the health details publicly revealed by the candidates have been accurate, Brooks added.
The Bragg actuarial study is to appear next month in a newsletter published by the Society of Actuaries.
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Comments
By GodHatesTrash
August 4, 2008 2:45 PM | Link to this
Not buying this - McCain has been dead from the neck up for about a decade already.
By Crystal
August 4, 2008 3:04 PM | Link to this
That is assuming that the firm did not classify liberalism as a mental illness. Most people do.
By Realistic!
August 4, 2008 3:45 PM | Link to this
I would rather have McCain for 4 good years and Obama for none.
Additionally, McCain isn’t running for 8 years.
Or is the media already deciding for us about the next election 4 + years from now?
By Joseph
August 4, 2008 4:12 PM | Link to this
A great many of us consider liberalism a buffer against the destruction caused by ‘compassionate’ conservatism. Once again, Crystal shows the inability of conservatives to relate to any perspective but their own narrow mindedness.
By Crystal
August 4, 2008 4:35 PM | Link to this
Well a great many of you are wrong, Joe. Liberalism has destroyed the black family, I would know. Liberalism is a gutless ideology based purely on emotion.
By Biteme
August 4, 2008 4:37 PM | Link to this
Get a life.
By hhhhmmmm
August 4, 2008 4:41 PM | Link to this
Obviously, Joseph, you show the same signs as Crystal - the inalibity to relate to any perspective but your own narow mindedness. I guess that’s the reason both of you don’t see it in yourself. Interesting, huh?
By William
August 4, 2008 4:45 PM | Link to this
So President John McCain can serve two full terms. Good for America, but bad news for Liberals. Did the Actuary’s take Obamas Crack Cocaine use into account? Crack does serious damage to the heart muscle.
By highly offended
August 4, 2008 4:58 PM | Link to this
William, do you have any evidence to back up your statement? If not, shut up! and put down your damn crack pipe!!
By Monica
August 4, 2008 5:00 PM | Link to this
hahaha, that’s so funny! It gets all the republicans all fired up!
Old man river.
By William
August 4, 2008 5:11 PM | Link to this
Well, highlyoffended, maybe you should read one of his books, where he admits he smoked Crack regularly. Hows that for evidence, vaporette!
By Sam1234
August 4, 2008 5:48 PM | Link to this
Obama is also a sleeper Muslim. What if he decides to martyr himself. Did they account for that?
By Puddy R. Farstinkski, Jr.
August 4, 2008 7:28 PM | Link to this
Sam’s a chronic masturbator who never tithes his church, he eats other peeps food out of the break-room, sometimes he don’t flush when he’s proud of his offering, but he’s a closet Christian so forgive him Lord, Jesus.
By TW
August 4, 2008 7:49 PM | Link to this
The diaper rash will get that babbling moron before then.
By ray
August 4, 2008 7:56 PM | Link to this
much more concerned about how drug addict cindy will handle the stress of the presidency. she’s doing so well with her recovery it’d be a shame if another keating five scandal sent her back into the pill bottle.
By AnanEMous
August 4, 2008 8:06 PM | Link to this
Ahh…. the tolerance of those on the left.
By Enemas
August 4, 2008 8:15 PM | Link to this
Yes, the soothing prose of the party of shock and awe, killing innocent families with a clever name, we are the war criminals we should be ashamed
By AnanEMous
August 4, 2008 8:48 PM | Link to this
And now with the standard sentiment, “This country is evil. The world hates us and I am with them”. Tis’ one of my favorites.
By ray
August 4, 2008 9:31 PM | Link to this
McSame/Satan ‘08 BECAUSE BUSH CAN’T RUN AGAIN
FINISH THE DRILL!
By Rarl Kove
August 4, 2008 10:18 PM | Link to this
Obama + Cleland= Barack and Roll.
Barack and Roll ‘08
By William
August 4, 2008 10:20 PM | Link to this
ray, you are such a good little DailyKook wannabe. Did ya hear McCain is ahead in the polls? What happened to Barry Husseins Euro bounce? LOL
By NOBama
August 4, 2008 10:39 PM | Link to this
Yeah, since everybody hates Bush and by extension hates all republicans, why oh why is B. Hussein Obama losing ground. And how is it possible that McCain is now leading in some of the tracking polls. Perhaps the people do not like seeing the race card played even when played by a “Chosen One” of color?
By ghostwriter
August 4, 2008 11:01 PM | Link to this
William is right. Crack does strange things to the heart muscle. Look what it did to GWB. It weakened his heart and made him go AWOL from his Air National Guard duty. By the way, when is the media going to get around to mentioning that McCain’s wife is his former mistress?
By Confucious
August 4, 2008 11:06 PM | Link to this
Nobama,
Perhaps mind control,
By Confucious Say
August 4, 2008 11:19 PM | Link to this
Confucious say: Man who walk side ways into turnstile, Bangkok.
By NoBama
August 4, 2008 11:21 PM | Link to this
It must be Dick Cheney’s evil “Mind Control/Weather Machine.”
By Bill Shaheen
August 4, 2008 11:30 PM | Link to this
Does anyone remember that while running Hillary’s campaign in NH that I implied that not only Obama smoked crack regularly, like he said in his book. But he also may have been dealing? Those Republicans could, after all, use that if we democrats are not careful.
By NoBama
August 4, 2008 11:34 PM | Link to this
I think they will get to McCain’s skeletons when they decide to cover John Edward’s cheating and having a love child with some gal from CA, while his wife is suffering from Cancer. I hear that Edwards is shortlisted t be Obama’s Attorney General should he win, God forbid.
By William
August 4, 2008 11:35 PM | Link to this
Hey ghoster, maybe you didn’t get the email, GWB is not running for re-election. Maybe you should hit the refresh button occasionally. Oh, and just for grins if Osama, oops Barry Hussein, doesn’t have at least a 15 pt poll lead at the end of October, he is toast. Looks like he is already getting a little color. Maybe he should parade Michelle around again and let her do some talking. LOL, Whats that sound I keep hearing? Flip Flop Flip Flop
By AnanEMous
August 5, 2008 12:10 AM | Link to this
If Obama craps out it will be because this is a racist, awful country. I can hear the media now.
By can anyone defend shock and awe
August 5, 2008 1:03 AM | Link to this
Blowing up civilians to shock them and supposedly “awe” them like what a god would do? How sick is that?
And torture? waterboarding - the same war crime for which we executed Japanese military leaders?
Denouncing the Bush mafia for pervaying these evil practices is not denouncing the good ole USA, it’s an attempt to protect the country from current administration that has perverted our ideals and shamed us all.
By Quayle Rider
August 5, 2008 7:27 AM | Link to this
U can’t question Bush’s record it makes you anti-American and of course you must wear your USA flair for if u don’t your not a patriot
By Copyleft
August 5, 2008 7:59 AM | Link to this
It’s encouraging to hear that McLame doesn’t have Alzheimer’s yet… that would put him head and shoulders above Reagan, whose body finally died YEARS after his failing brain did so much damage to our country.
By ghostwriter
August 5, 2008 8:03 AM | Link to this
Hey William, GWB not running for president? Tell John McCain to push the refresh button and stop holding on to GWB’s failed policies. Oh wait, he must be too busy trying to adhere to his family values. You know the one about not cheating on your wife. Oh wait, at least it was with a woman.
By DeKalb Voter
August 5, 2008 8:43 AM | Link to this
I know the Democrats must be shaking their heads and wondering how Obama blew a nine point lead in the polls in one week. This is the time Democrats are usually ahead in the polls by two digits. Dukakis was ahead of Bush I by nineteen points at this time; Kerry ahead of Bush II by fifteen points at this time. Obama is not ahead of McCain at all at this time. Why does this scare the heck out of Democrats? Because August is the time the Republicans come out with both barrells blasting. The Democrats decided to go with somoeone who is so far out of the norm for mainstream America it’s hard to imagine why they’d pick him. Obama is tanking now and it will only get worse. McCain is getting tougher by the day and Obam is tanking by the hour. The only ardent support he has is with those voting by race, blacks will vote Obama no matter what. Most, not all… but most blacks lack the intellectual capacity to examine if Obama is really good for them. He isn’t. If all you can attack McCain about is his age, I want to hear how well it worked for you after the election. Whites are jumping off the Obama bandwagon and I don’t see them jumping back on and we all know no one will be elected without the white male majority. This may not hold true in the future, but it will hold true in 2008.
By Copyleft
August 5, 2008 9:19 AM | Link to this
Thanks for reminding us what the Republicans stand for in the South, Voter.
Eventually the bigots will die off and we’ll have a proud liberal society again… but the South will always be lagging behind the rest of the country, as usual.
By Copyleft
August 5, 2008 9:55 AM | Link to this
I stole that McClame line from Keith Overbite, Countdown to no ratings. The way he gets his liberal panties in a wad, every night, is amazing. He hates America as much as Obama and I do. I must give credit where credit is due.
By Emily
August 5, 2008 10:40 AM | Link to this
Gosh…NBC, CBS and ABC have all protected Obama to the point of their choice for President is a glaring joke. When Obama is defeated in Novemeber, and he will be, it will be the average American with average American values selecting our President and not Hollywood or the liberal and biased press. Copyleft, do you believe half the dribble you type? I think not. You sound scared. You know in your gut he’ll (Obama) lose, don’t you? McCain in 2008,the only choice for America.
By Copyleft
August 5, 2008 11:06 AM | Link to this
Nah, I’m not scared Emily. President Obama will cruise to an easy victory this November. Funny how the right wing only pays attention to those polls that seem to offer them even a slim hope.
Can’t wait to see McLame sweat and bluster his way through the debates, too… that is, assuming he remembers how to find his way there.
By Churchill
August 5, 2008 11:11 AM | Link to this
Did anyone catch Bill Clinton yesterday. It seems that he smells blood in the water and may be trying help defeat Obama. I believe that the Clinton’s want Obama to lose in Nov. If he loses it will make it easier for Hillary to run in 2012. After all, she would have a hard time wrestling the nomination away from a Democrat president.
By DaninMacon
August 5, 2008 11:39 AM | Link to this
Copyleft, Obama is the one ducking debates and forums. He said he would debate McCain anywhere at anytime. What happened? Obama is screwed and you know it.
By William
August 5, 2008 12:10 PM | Link to this
Hey Obammy, SEE YA! We hardly even knew ya. But we knew enough.
By Emily
August 5, 2008 12:19 PM | Link to this
Copyleft…”McLame”….? How Jesse Jackson of you. Then again, Obama is sounding more and more JJ each trip to the microphone. His little comment about not looking like other Presidents on a dollar bill worked out well for him, didn’t it. lol
By DaveC1
August 24, 2008 7:07 PM | Link to this
Distorted use of statistics:
Average of 8.4 years only means that half the population would have more than 8.4 and half would have less than 8.4. That’s assuming it’s a normal distribution. Averages are impacted by extreme values, so those who remain in good health for 40 years pull the average up more than those wo remain in good health for less than 1 year. In other words, a man of McCain’s age has less than a 50% chance of remaining in good health for 8 years.
How about this statistic:
A typical man of John McCain’s age has a 33% chance of dying within 8 years. That right, a one in three chance of not making it two terms.
It gets worse: John McCains grandfather died suddenly at the age of 61 of a heart attack. His father died suddenly at the age of 70 of a heart attack. Did the expert take family history into account?
If John McCain wins the election, I wish him good health and a long life. He’s a good man, but let’s not kid ourselves about actuarial tables.