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DEL.ICIO.USThings to watch today
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
With about two-and-a-half hours to go before polls close, there are more uncertainties in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary than otherwise, but one thing appears certain: turnout is low, low, low.
With that in mind, here are a few things to watch and contemplate as we approach 7 p.m. and the closing of the polls.
1. Who does low turnout benefit? Dale Cardwell isn’t sure. The former WSB-TV newsman hopes its him. Atlanta businessman Rand Knight’s campaign reported earlier Tuesday that turnout was mighty slow in DeKalb County, which would seem to bode badly for that county’s CEO, Vernon Jones.
Big turnout in DeKalb would surely benefit Jones, right? Those voters are used to selecting Jones. Keep an eye on those DeKalb boxes, which in many precincts will also include results in the 5th District U.S. House race where incumbent Democrat John Lewis has two challengers.
2. Old guard vs. new Whether they admit it or not, the consensus around the state is that the traditional leaders of the state Democratic Party recruited former lawmaker Jim Martin to run in this Senate primary.
While Martin has raised the most money (much of which came from that old guard or their counterparts in Washington), he has in no way run away with this campaign. If he fails to win today, or makes it to the runoff only to get beat, what does that say about the traditional party infrastructure?
With the Barack Obama campaign bringing thousands of new voters into the Democratic fold, it might signal that the old way is out.
3. What does Jones do in North Georgia? Vernon Jones’ fate in the most conservative region of the state could be a barometer for November. If whites in North Georgia vote for Jones, who is black, is could signal that Obama could expect the same in November.
It’s not a perfect comparison, because those whites could just as easily go vote for Republican John McCain in November, but it would signal a willingness to vote outside their race, which is significant.
4. Do endorsements matter? Rand Knight won the major endorsements from labor, including the state teacher’s union.
If those educators and union members turnout for him, the 36-year-old Knight could stage something of an upset. To come from nowhere a few months ago and turn this race on its ear would be quite something.
5. Does Obama mean anything today? Obama’s campaign sent out a blast e-mail Tuesday to Georgia supporters, reminding them to go vote. Oh, and also to volunteer for his campaign, or donate to his campaign.
No one has aligned themselves more closely in this race than Jones, courtesy of the mail piece he put out that was digitally altered to put Jones and Obama together.
While Jones’ opponents, many in the media and Obama himself have criticized Jones for it, will average voters love it, or hate it? Will they accept Obama’s statement that it was unauthorized, and hold it against Jones, or will they take Jones’ word that it was a celebration of Obama’s candidacy?
With turnout this low, that kind of thing can make a difference.
—Aaron Gould Sheinin
Jim Galloway is out of town, but will return soon. If you’ve got news, pop an e-mail to our political team: editor Susan Abramson at sabramson@ajc.com; staffers Aaron Sheinin at asheinin@ajc.com; James Salzer at jsalzer@ajc.com; and Ben Smith at bsmith@ajc.com.
Comments
By Katie
July 15, 2008 6:11 PM | Link to this
Dude, what?
By beachmom
July 15, 2008 9:02 PM | Link to this
Your theory is way off the mark re: white votes for Jones meaning anything for Obama one way or the other. I am a white voter and major Obama supporter — given Jones’s very troubling past plus his voting for Bush two times, there is no way I would vote for him. This has nothing to do with race, but character and ideology, for which Obama is the polar opposite. In fact, when Vernon Jones featured fliers with Obama’s picture on them, the Obama campaign made clear they had not in any way endorsed Jones. They seemed annoyed.
So major grain of salt on how whites vote for Jones.
By Fabu da Fabulous
July 15, 2008 9:04 PM | Link to this
I love you Katie would you consider getting married at the Catoosa County court house, yeah haah