Home > Political Insider > Archives > 2008 > May > 21 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USBarr could put Georgia in play, and the Obama campaign knows it
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Signs are popping up all over that Georgia could have a front row seat in the November race for president — thanks to Bob Barr, if he remains the Libertarian in the race.
Late yesterday, Matt Towery and his InsiderAdvantage unveiled a statewide poll, with a 3.6 percent margin of error, that — presuming Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee, and Barr as the Libertarian choice — had the following horse-race figures:
— John McCain, Republican, at 45%
— Barack Obama, Democrat, at 35%
— Bob Barr, Libertarian, at 8%
For now, pay no attention to those two top lines, which could be kind of soft. Stick with Barr, whose presence in Georgia and metro Atlanta goes back two decades and more.
No one knows what he’ll do in the rest of the nation. That depends on cash and organization. But in his home state, Barr is a known quantity.
“That 8 percent in Georgia could in fact hold — it could go down, but it’s enough to make the state competitive,” Towery said today.
Right now, Barr’s polling mimics the performance of Ross Perot and his Reform Party candidacies in 1992 and 1996. In his first run, Perot won nearly 14 percent of the vote in Georgia. In his second, he dropped to 6 percent.
But in each case, Bill Clinton was the beneficiary. In ‘92, Clinton won Georgia. In ‘96, he came within 1.2 percent of taking the state.
Don’t think that the Obama campaign isn’t watching every move that Barr makes. Should he become the Libertarian candidate, how Barr does in Georgia — worth 15 electoral votes — becomes especially important.
The Obama campaign has identified more than a dozen swing states where foot soldiers are already on the ground, preparing for November. In the South, North Carolina is one of those states. Georgia is another.
In Atlanta, eight full-time Obama workers are quietly putting together get-out-the-vote plans and setting up voter registration rallies.
To have an operation up and running, more than five months before the vote, bespeaks some serious ambition.
Many of you have also noticed that, as if to punctuate the above, RealClearPolitics has added Georgia to its list of battleground states.
This is what Noah Millman of the American Scene is saying:
Bob Barr is from Georgia. In general, Obama is going to have a tough time in the deep South - even if he gets record African-American turnout in states like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina, overwhelming white support for the GOP will make an Obama victory impossible.
But if Barr gets a significant vote in his home state, and Obama can generate historic levels of African-American support, there may be a window for Obama to contest Georgia, which would otherwise be out of reach.
Comments
By jungleland
May 21, 2008 3:46 PM | Link to this
Barr will do far better than 8% in Georgia. The Republicans in office have moved away from the shared Conservative / Libertarian ideals (small government, low tax, personal freedom) that got them much of the conservative vote in the past. The reason Republicans may be in trouble in Georgia: Deficit + Patriot Act
By RJ
May 21, 2008 4:45 PM | Link to this
jungleland, You are very insightful. Additional reasons the Republicans are in trouble in Georgia are overall poor performance, lap dogs for Bush, hypocracy about earmarks, ineffectiveness in a Democratically controlled Congress.
Perhaps the most noteworthy reason they are fractured in Georgia is because a good segment of the grassroot Republicans simply cannot stomach McCain because of the Kennedy association, the immigration issue, to name a few. That segment is most likely going to either a Libertarian or in the no vote category, which will benefit Obama, if he’s the nominee.
By Dusty
May 21, 2008 4:49 PM | Link to this
Are you kidding? Obama hasn’t any more chance than a snowflake in hell of winning the Presidency of the USA. He isn’t experienced. He isn’t qualified. He is anti-war. His wife and friends are anti-American. He has displayed his own form of racism. He is an appeaser, not a protector. Americans don’t like those characteristics.
AJC Insider has now done his job of promoting Obama. That is what he is paid to do and that is what he is doing. It is not journalism. It is political propaganda.
By chris
May 21, 2008 4:58 PM | Link to this
Go Bob Barr, I would love to sea donation and help support his campaign. lets show repugnants what it feels like to have operation chaos turn on them. I always felt that fat drug addict limbaugh would be sorry when many of the repubs wound up voting democrat in the fall. mcBush has more issues with the repub base than they care to admit and he faces just as many internal party issues as Sen. Obama, the fundraising totals clearly bear that out.
By Copyleft
May 21, 2008 5:56 PM | Link to this
I see that once again, Dusty misses the point in her rush to panic about Obama. “NOTHING good must EVER be said about Obama, darnit!”
So I’ll try my hand at some elementary education for sad little Dust-mite: The post was about Barr splitting the REPUBLICAN vote, get it?
By greg deVeer
May 21, 2008 6:22 PM | Link to this
I love how Dusty cites Obama’s “anti-war” stance as a reason that he can’t win in November. Hello? Are you paying attention?
65% of Americans say we should have NEVER gone into Iraq. 80% think the country is on the wrong path. Bush has the LOWEST approval rating of any president in history.
short story = repubs can’t win this time around. even if McSame wasn’t a totally washed up empty suit with no charisma or leadership abilities.
This will be a walk for Obama.
By Linda
May 21, 2008 6:26 PM | Link to this
The post was about Barr splitting the REPUBLICAN vote, get it?
You have that wrong….not quite all there is.
It also gives Dem’s another choice other than McCain or Obamanot. Keep the third parties coming. Waiting to hear Barr’s platform.
By James
May 21, 2008 6:34 PM | Link to this
“In each case Bill Clinton was the beneficiay?” How so? Clinton did NOT carry the state in 1996 - Dole did.
By mike
May 21, 2008 9:00 PM | Link to this
What you fail to realize is that a LARGE part of Ron Paul’s appeal is that you can trust him. He has a 20+ year voting record in congress that is solidly in line with his presidential campaign platform. You could trust him to stand for the things he has been talking about because he has been standing up for those prinicples for a LONG time.
Bob Barr does not have the same kind of voting record and does not garner the same kind of trust that Ron Paul does. That’s why people are not excited about him.
We are happy that he has changed his mind on issues. But if you look at his record, whether its on the Patriot Act, DOMA, drug war, or his personal life, you come away wondering if you can trust him to make every effort to stand up for the ideas in the platform he is running on.
I guess, in this case, you could say that running on these ideals is standing up for them, but I would be a lot more excited to have a candidate like Ron Paul to vote for.
“Let it not be said that noone cared, that noone objected once it’s realized that our liberties and wealth are in jeopardy. Let it not be said that we did nothing.” ~Ron Paul~
By Churchill
May 21, 2008 11:17 PM | Link to this
Ru Paul is a boob.
By snd
May 22, 2008 8:09 AM | Link to this
First - Dusty…you are clueless.
There is a significant libertarian streak in NC, SC & GA. Barr running could make a huge impact in what are now considered 3’safe’ red states.
By Mr. Reality
May 22, 2008 8:52 AM | Link to this
Barr really throws a wrench in Obama’s Georgia “win” that he’s secretely banking on. Barr will cancel out his black vote almost entirely.
Call ( 678 ) WE VOTE 1 ( 678 ) 938-6831 And SEE your message and voice heard & posted at www.farrelvotes.blogspot.com! Messages are posted daily.
By tom ga hunter
May 22, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this
Bob Barr= NONE OF THE ABOVE.. He’s less bad than the other 2.
By K C
May 22, 2008 3:34 PM | Link to this
If anyone told me that two men of African descent..let alone one.. could hold the key to the presidential election in Georgia….I never would have believed it..
By Ron Paul Supporter
May 23, 2008 7:01 AM | Link to this
Perhaps the Barr voters will regain their composure and write in Ron Paul, as millions will do instead of voting Barr. The rEVOLution is just beginning.
www.DailyPaul.com www.RonPaul2008.com