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DEL.ICIO.USOn John Lewis and a Fifth District that’s not as African-American as it once was
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
U.S. John Lewis kicked off his first political campaign in eight years on Monday, promising to make himself a constant, even annoying presence in the Fifth District that he’s ruled since 1986.
“When I’m not in Washington voting, I’ll be out here campaigning,” Lewis said. “You’re going to be sick of me.”
Several analysts have looked at Lewis’s iconic status as a civil rights leader, and have pronounced this enough to beat back challenges from “Able” Mable Thomas and Markel Hutchins.
But Lewis has got more than reputation on his side. He’s got some favorable numbers.
U.S. Rep. John Lewis of Atlanta at his campaign kick-off Monday. Mikki K. Harris/AJC
First of all, assume that both Thomas and Hutchins, given their reputations as community activists, will draw their heaviest support among African-Americans, probably younger ones, on Atlanta’s south side and in Clayton County.
Further, assume that white voters in the district are the least likely to carry a grudge against Lewis for initially supporting Hillary Clinton in the Democratic presidential primary.
This is important, because — contrary to what many people think — the Fifth District is not majority black. Not in real numbers and not — at least in the past — in participating voters.
In terms of active voters, the Fifth District was 59 percent African-American in 2001. In 2002, the black vote was 53 percent. In 2005, the district was redrawn (yet again) to incorporate more of Buckhead, up to I-285, and a larger swath of west DeKalb. Both are areas with large white populations.
As of April 1 of this year, African-American voters made up 48 percent of the Fifth District. Another statistic: The Barack Obama enthusiasm factor may make this point moot, but in November 2006, white voters cast 51 percent of vote that gave Lewis his 10th term in Congress.
(In case you’re curious, Hank Johnson’s Fourth District has the highest black voting population, with David Scott’s 13th District coming in second.)
But here’s the killer question, no doubt one that Lewis’ campaign team is already pondering: Will Obama make an endorsement in the primary battle? And would he endorse Lewis?
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Comments
By Lily Toad
May 13, 2008 4:34 PM | Link to this
I can’t see a Presidential candidate endorsing a Congressional candidate. I know once someone is President they will try to help out party members in elections, but I can’t see Obama endorsing any incumbents or other candidates. If he did, it would be risky to not endorse such a “civil rights icon.”
By OH the Pressure
May 13, 2008 5:13 PM | Link to this
He SHOULD! Lewis was pressured publicly (at a funeral even!) to change his endorsement from the woman to the brother. Of course, it had nothing to do with Obama being a brother, or who the pressure was coming from, but rather, it was the “will of the voters,” so he should get with it, despite his own feelings. Hmmm….. Wonder why Kennedy and Kerry weren’t pressured into endorsing Clinton, even though the state they represent voted for HER? Hmmm… Could it BE? Is the good ol’ boy network still hanging on to business as usual, albeit more color-inclusive now? Things to ponder.
C’mon, Obama! Return the favor. That’s how you’ll do business from here on out anyway. You’re one of them now.
By MiltonMan
May 14, 2008 8:11 AM | Link to this
Oh yes, the crappy 5th district. Good to see the DemoRats still hold onto the scraps within Georgia.
By Jackie
May 14, 2008 11:18 AM | Link to this
Obama has said many times that he has three heroes, one is John Lewis. I think hes already been endorsed.
By Scott
May 16, 2008 6:59 PM | Link to this
White voters cast 51 percent of vote that gave Lewis his 10th term in Congress? Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that no one ran against John Lewis in 2006! I would love to see John Lewis voted out. His votes against every single pro-gun bill and for every anti-gun bill would be reason enough, but there are many more. I’m trying to think of the last thing I agreed with him on, but nothing’s coming to me. Vincent Fort, our State Senator, can follow him out too.
By Scott
May 16, 2008 6:59 PM | Link to this
White voters cast 51 percent of vote that gave Lewis his 10th term in Congress? Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that no one ran against John Lewis in 2006! I would love to see John Lewis voted out. His votes against every single pro-gun bill and for every anti-gun bill would be reason enough, but there are many more. I’m trying to think of the last thing I agreed with him on, but nothing’s coming to me. Vincent Fort, our State Senator, can follow him out too.