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Would an African-American surge be enough for Obama to take Georgia? Probably not

Josh Goodman at Governing magazine has taken those February presidential primary numbers I tossed at you last week, and crunched them with the November vote in mind.

Even working in the impact of a Libertarian candidacy by Bob Barr, Goodman can’t see Barack Obama taking Georgia from John McCain:

”As a relatively uneducated guess, let’s say that the white vote goes McCain 65%, Obama 20%, Barr 15%, Obama still gets 90% of the black vote with Barr getting 1% and the new breakdown for the others is 45-45%, with Barr getting 10%. The result: McCain, 47.6%, Obama, 41.8%, Barr, 10.7%. That’s closer, but not close enough to truly be in play.

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Comments

By Charles

April 21, 2008 12:38 PM | Link to this

With Obama’s association with a racist preacher for 20 years and relations with an admitted terrorist he’s already doomed his electability. Why do you think Hillary is staying on until Denver? Denver will make Chicago 1968 look like a garden party when the Clintons try to take away the nomination with the Superdelegate votes.

By Why bother to vote, then?

April 21, 2008 12:45 PM | Link to this

“Paid for by Citizens for McCrusty and More of the Same $h!t.”

By Sven the Blog Catalyst

April 21, 2008 12:53 PM | Link to this

What an incredibly racist prediction that blacks will vote for Obama almost lockstep along racial lines … and, equally, what an accurate and prescient prediction. Think about it.

By Churchill

April 21, 2008 1:16 PM | Link to this

I been saying that GA will stay red for months. All this Obama hype in ATL is wishful thinking.

By ATL

April 21, 2008 1:47 PM | Link to this

But, what about just a Democrat surge (of any color)?

By buck naked

April 21, 2008 1:55 PM | Link to this

Sven your a nordic bigot, churchswill you are the goo underneath the devil’s taint, why don’t ya’ll get together and make a magnet of hate the forces drawing you in each other’s arms smells like fear of the inevitable rejection of your inane idealogy

By Lars Tate

April 21, 2008 1:58 PM | Link to this

Churchswill you’ve also been picking your butt since you came out of that watermelon too, no one cares what you think we all no your still living with your mama

By Churchill

April 21, 2008 2:15 PM | Link to this

Lars is a typical lib. They never engaged on the issues, just nonsensical, untrue personal attacks. I love insullts from libs. It means I am hitting a nerve. Peace.

Hey, Lars, will you guys riot in Denver when Hillary attemtps to steal the nomination from Obama?

By Churchill

April 21, 2008 2:22 PM | Link to this

Was that “watermelon” reference racist?

By Monique Unique

April 21, 2008 2:23 PM | Link to this

charles you sad little man wishing for the enemies in your head to riot, why not promote the ideals of your party instead of wishing for pain on fellow human beings who disagree with you, sad really.

By Lord America

April 21, 2008 2:28 PM | Link to this

churchy’s got his pannies in a wad, probably time for a colon blow, hide the women and children.

By Nebulus Fantasia

April 21, 2008 2:38 PM | Link to this

Violence is always the answer with lazyboy laying, fox news watching, chicken hawk cheerleading, god-fearing and misunderstanding, cretins of ignorance, yellow belly bed-wetting neocons like ‘swill and his ilk.

By Churchill

April 21, 2008 2:47 PM | Link to this

I agree with Chuck. I want the country to finaly see the Democrat party for what it is. You guys are the dividers. Look at all the racism and sexism in your primary. If you are worried about the riots, how about excerise some control. Of course the left knows nothing about self control or restraint so I am sure there will be fireworks in Denver. Peace.

By McCrusty 08!

April 21, 2008 3:15 PM | Link to this

Yes, Democrats are dividers, not uniters like the Republicans who have, and will continue to unite us in being hated by the entire rest of the world. We need to stick together!

“Paid for by Citizens for McCrusty and More of the Same $h!t.”

By Frederick Douglass

April 21, 2008 4:09 PM | Link to this

I beg to differ with you Charles, Obama was deemed unelectable on Aug.4,1961. It sickens me to hear that fabricated tripe about lapel pins, Rev. Wright, and Weathermen, when people such as yourself wouldn’t vote for an African American if he’d been sent from Heaven itself. Name one African American that you think can do anything around 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. besides spruce up the grounds.

By Craig

April 21, 2008 5:39 PM | Link to this

Who cares what color skin Obama has? He’s not even Black. He’s biracial. I’m not voting for him because of his associations, his flirtations with very far left ideologies, and his complete inexperience with anything to do with a budget, executive experience, the military, etc. He’s a bleeding heart leftist professor. People love him because he says all the right buzz phrases but then offers no substance. He’s a con artist. Keep him in the classroom of some college corrupting those stupid enough to waste their money to attend his class. Pure puffery.

By MiltonMan

April 21, 2008 5:54 PM | Link to this

Obama = Change we can believe in:

(1) Get rid of the ceiling paid for Social Security = Raise Taxes (2) Cover every American with health care. How will this be paid? (3) Most Liberal Senator - even more liberal than Kennedy

The clown will not win Georgia - not even close.

By GM

April 21, 2008 6:16 PM | Link to this

We’ve been voting for white candidates since we got the right to vote in the first place. Nobody complained about that. As for the post, they have no idea how many new Black voters will register if Obama gets the nomination.

By lifesoliveit

April 21, 2008 6:27 PM | Link to this

People are assuming too much about how the voting will break down along color lines. IMO the only responsible conversation about who will vote for who should only really be taking place once the Dem contest is finished and there is sufficient tracking data from Obama v McCain one one one. It amazes me how these analysis are always “can Obama win” and not “can McCain win”. In all honesty, right now Obama has a much bigger war-chest, will have campaign offices in all 50 states, and is being much more enthusiastically received within his party. McCain is basically the beneficiary of the Dem infighting, but I daresay I’d like to see some polling data once Clinton is out of the picture, especially after a couple of debates and Obama gets a chance to take the “warhero” veneer off McCain.

Honestly, McCains policies are very weak and offer nothing that will fundamentally change or help us this cycle. All Obama really has to do is tell the truth, the McCain is taking the worst, most destructive, least effective parts of an extremely dislikes POTUS (Bush II), and simply rehashing them.

as much as people like to frame this as “can Obama win”, I think some people really need to ask can McCain.

By Frederick Douglass

April 21, 2008 6:48 PM | Link to this

Hallelujah, skin color doesn’t matter anymore. I never thought I’d live long enough to experience such a momentous occurence, excuse the water spots, I’m so overcome with emotion that I’m crying. You mean to tell me that I endured a substandard, segregated, separate but equal education, and there was a possibility that I could’ve been president?

By Churchill

April 21, 2008 6:51 PM | Link to this

Rice, Powell, Watts, Steele, Sowell, …just to start there Mr. Douglass, if that’s your real name.

Chuck is right.

By A Taxpayer

April 21, 2008 7:05 PM | Link to this

But what if the Republican voters start switching. I have voted Republican every election since Carter. This year, I have had enough — enough of the arrogance, lies, and deceit of this republican party. I’m going back to the Democratic Party unless Barr runs.

By Hume Buckley

April 21, 2008 7:06 PM | Link to this

Not then, but now, Fred. This country has changed. That is a problem for some, but honestly things have gotten better since then. Even in the South. Part of me hopes that that Obama wins this whole thing. Then, maybe, we can put all this behind us. Quite honestly, most of the racism I see is on the left. Racism has been institutionalized by the government (welfare, poor public education, the installation of “government will fix everything” mentality). We need to address the root of “modern inequality.” I maintain that the root of “modern inequality” lies in the power of the Federal Government to control our lives. At this point, McCain is the only one running that talks about limiting the influence and power of the Federal government.

By Churchill the Boob

April 21, 2008 7:09 PM | Link to this

I engage on the issues. What you goin to do bout it. Call me a dirty name like Churchill the Bood or somethin. Well yall go head and poke fun at me. Go ahead i say.

By Churchill

April 21, 2008 7:32 PM | Link to this

Right on.

By Churchill

April 21, 2008 7:50 PM | Link to this

Mr. Buckley you make too much sense. The libs are gonna get mad atcha. They will post lunacy under your name. There is a way to handle it. It is even more fun. Good luck, sir. Peace.

By Snoop kitty-kat

April 21, 2008 9:05 PM | Link to this

we have ways of making you talk, churchy your getting creepy, seek help.

By Copyleft

April 22, 2008 8:28 AM | Link to this

Don’t be silly, people. Georgia will reliably vote Republican this fall… and the rest of the country will vote Democratic. And Georgia will be stuck in the backwoods-ignorant-hick category, AGAIN, while the rest of the country moves forward.

No surprises this fall… except for those who really think Obama’s “unelectable.”

By Craig

April 22, 2008 11:35 AM | Link to this

Yes because Obama offers so much. His ideas SOUND great. But from the specifics and the logic, he cannot execute them. Sorry, but he needs to stick to being a professor. Utopian dreams are exactly that…dreams. Reality and logic are much different.

By Fidel Castro

April 22, 2008 5:28 PM | Link to this

Raul is cool

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