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DEL.ICIO.USThe Obama bump in Georgia
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The votes in Texas and Ohio haven’t been cast yet. Hillary Clinton could still pull it out.
But already Democratic strategists are salivating at the nomination of Barack Obama, and the effect a black presidential candidate might have on the balance of power in the South.
A surge of voters in states with the highest African-American populations in the nation could send a rippling wave down ballots from Louisiana to North Carolina, reversing a four-decade decline in Democratic clout.
Nowhere is this more true than in Georgia, where Democrats cast 97,310 more votes in the Feb. 5 presidential primary than Republicans — a 10 percent advantage.
Randy Evans, a Republican member of the State Election Board, is predicting an impressive statewide turnout of 60 percent for the November election that could overwhelm polling sites. “We’ll have some precincts that break 70 percent. I’m willing to stick my neck out that far,” he said.
Evans contends that, by November, Georgia Republicans will match the intensity of Democrats and provide their usual proportion of votes.
Democrats have every intention of putting that theory to the test. Already, plans are afoot to expand the number of state House and Senate seats in which they’ll challenge Republican incumbents.
County operatives are recruiting more candidates for school board and county commission races. Significant gains could come in Cobb and Gwinnett counties, traditional Republican bastions where Democrats made up 48 and 46 percent of the presidential primary vote, respectively.
For Democrats, the only obstacle to this downballot momentum may be a clunker of a U.S. Senate race. Five candidates are in the Democratic race: Former TV journalist Dale Cardwell; DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones; ecologist Rand Knight; Statesboro businessman Josh Lanier; and Rockdale County teacher Maggie Martinez.
According to the Federal Election Commission, as of Dec. 31, Democratic candidates reported a total $296,201 in cash on hand for the Senate race. Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss reported $4.4 million. And Chambliss has no primary challenge.
But an Obama bump could change even the dynamics of Georgia’s Senate race.
Since Super Tuesday, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in Washington has gone back to a number of Senate races that had been written off as unwinnable. The race in Georgia is among them.
On Feb. 24, the DSCC completed a four-day poll of 600 likely Georgia voters that measured Chambliss’ vulnerabilities. The survey found:
— The Republican incumbent led when pitted against a generic Democrat, but only by 42 to 37 percent;
— Only 38 percent of those surveyed rated Chambliss’ performance in office as good or excellent. Forty percent rated it fair or poor — perhaps a result of the Republican senator’s involvement in an attempt at immigration reform last summer;
— And only 37 percent of voters would commit to re-electing Chambliss.
Both Democrats and Republicans have told us these weaknesses are not particularly news, but have been overshadowed by Chambliss’ fund-raising efforts, and by the weakness of the Democratic field.
The significance is that such polls are often produced when national parties have a potential candidate — or multiple candidates — they’d like to lure into a particular race. This may be the case when it comes to the Georgia contest.
“There are people who are still considering this race,” said state Democratic party chairman Jane Kidd on Friday. “If anyone else does decide to get in, it probably will happen in the next 10 days to two weeks.”
Just who, Kidd wouldn’t say. But we have heard the name of Jim Martin mentioned on several fronts.
Our attempts to reach the Atlanta attorney and former state representative were unsuccessful. But Martin ran a credible campaign for lieutenant governor in 2006, winning more votes than Mark Taylor, the unsuccessful Democratic candidate for governor.
Jones, the DeKalb CEO, must be considered the strongest Democrat currently in the Senate race.
But Martin also has demonstrated strong support in metro Atlanta, and so could challenge Jones for that spot — perhaps easing fears, privately expressed by some Democrats, that Jones’ controversial personal life could dampen the downticket effect of an Obama-generated uplift.
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By Martha Davidson
March 2, 2008 8:49 PM | Link to this
Clintons to face NEW FRAUD TRIAL!!!While Hillary Clinton battles Barack Obama on the campaign trail, a judge in Los Angeles is quietly preparing to set a trial date in a $17 million fraud suit that aims to expose an alleged culture of widespread corruption by the Clintons and the Democratic Party.
At the conclusion of a hearing tomorrow morning before California Superior Court Judge Aurelio N. Munoz, lawyers for Hollywood mogul Peter F. Paul will begin seeking sworn testimony from all three Clintons – Bill, Hillary and Chelsea – along with top Democratic Party leaders and A-list celebrities, including Barbra Streisand, John Travolta, Brad Pitt and Cher.
Paul’s team hopes for a trial in October. The Clintons’ longtime lawyer David Kendall, who will attend the hearing, has declined comment on the suit.
The Clintons have tried to dismiss the case, but the California Supreme Court, in 2004, upheld a lower-court decision to deny the motion.
(Story continues below)
Bill Clinton, according to the complaint, promised to promote Paul’s Internet entertainment company, Stan Lee Media, in exchange for stock, cash options and massive contributions to his wife’s 2000 Senate campaign. Paul contends he was directed by the Clintons and Democratic Party leaders to produce, pay for and then join them in lying about footing the bill for a Hollywood gala and fundraiser.
The Clintons’ legal counsel has denied the former president made any deal with Paul. But Paul attorney Colette Wilson told WND there are witnesses who say it was common knowledge at Stan Lee Media that Bill Clinton was preparing to be a rainmaker for the company after he left office.
Paul claims former Vice President Al Gore, former Democratic Party chairman Ed Rendell and Clinton presidential campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe also are among the people who can confirm Paul engaged in the deal.
Hillary Clinton with Peter and Andrea Paul (Courtesy Hillcap.org)
Paul claims Rendell directed various illegal contributions to the DNC and Hillary Clinton’s campaign and failed to report to the Federal Election Commission more than $100,000 given for a Hollywood event for Gore’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee in 2000. McAuliffe, Paul says, counseled him in two separate meetings to become a major donor to Hillary Clinton to pave the way to hire her husband. Paul asserts top Clinton adviser Harold Ickes also directed him to give money to the Senate campaign but hid that fact in “perjured testimony” during the trial of campaign finance director David Rosen.
Rosen was acquitted in 2005 for filing false campaign reports that later were charged by the FEC to treasurer Andrew Grossman, who accepted responsibility in a conciliation agreement that fined the campaign 35,000. Paul points out the Rosen trial established his contention that he personally gave more than $1.2 million to Clinton’s campaign and that his contributions intentionally were hidden from the public and the Federal Election Commission.
Rosen, accused of concealing Paul’s in-kind contribution of more than $1 million, was acquitted, but Paul contends the Clinton staffer was a scapegoat. Paul points out chief Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson told the Washington Post he was aware of the donation, yet he never was called as a witness in the Rosen trial.
Paul contends his case will expose “the institutional culture of corruption embraced by the Clinton leadership of the Democratic Party,” which seeks to attain “unaccountable power for the Clintons at the expense of the rule of law and respect for the constitutional processes of government.”
The complaint asserts Clinton has filed four false reports to the FEC of Paul’s donations in an attempt to distance herself from him after a Washington Post story days after the August 2000 fundraiser reported his past felony convictions. Clinton then returned a check for $2,000, insisting it was the only money she had taken from Paul. But one month later, she demanded another $100,000, to be hidden in a state committee using untraceable securities.
“Why wouldn’t that cause someone to inquire?” Paul asked. “Especially since it was days after she said she wouldn’t take any more money from me.”
Paul has the support of a new grass-roots political action group that is helping garner the assistance of one of the nation’s top lawyers
Republican activist Rod Martin says his group plans to highlight Paul’s case as it launches an organization based on the business model of the left-wing MoveOn.org but rooted in the principles and political philosophy of former President Reagan.
Martin’s group also is assisting in Paul’s complaint to the FEC asserting that unless the agency sets aside the conciliation agreement and rescinds immunity granted the senator, it will “have aided and abetted in the commission” of a felony.
Paul’s case is the subject of a video documentary largely comprised of intimate “home movies” of Hillary Clinton and her Hollywood supporters captured by Paul during the period.
By Wesley
March 2, 2008 8:57 PM | Link to this
Obama still has a chance to win the Democratic Nomination, just as Mike Huckabee has a chance to win the Republican Nomination, both offer a welcome change to Politics as usual.
By Jon
March 2, 2008 9:06 PM | Link to this
How about Max Cleland for the Democratic nominee for Senator?
By tinhat
March 2, 2008 9:15 PM | Link to this
Is Peter Paul’s wife named Mary?
Martha … if you want to write a dissertation, go to graduate school. Not many people will read a post that long! Oh, and boring!
By DemPUG
March 2, 2008 9:35 PM | Link to this
Why hasn’t the state or national party recruited for this US Senate Race? How can the Chair of the State Party let this happen? Does the state party have THAT little influence among their own members?
By Churchill
March 2, 2008 9:52 PM | Link to this
DemPUG, The DNC knows that it would be a waste of cash. Georgia is considered to be safe for the Republicans, God willing. GA may be one of only a few safe states for Republicans this cycle, regrettably. The libs will not win the US Senate race in GA this November. If the DNC thought they had a shot then, they would be pouring cash into the state by the truck load.
By kww
March 2, 2008 10:04 PM | Link to this
Sheesh…Hillary whines about the unfair treatment because she is a woman…you rarely hear she is pulling the gender card …Obama has not the luxury to use race as an excuse…although he would never go there because it is not true… But the media and racist libs say he is black because he has dark skin and married to a black woman. If he were more fair and married a white woman, hispanic or an asian I imagine we would never here him being labeled “black”. GIve me a break…racism is a cancer and I think Obama just might be the cure!
By Churchill
March 2, 2008 10:40 PM | Link to this
I see Hitlery play the gender card all the time? Her whole deal is based on her gender. She has seen to it. Wake up kww.
By keep dreaming galloway
March 2, 2008 11:00 PM | Link to this
Keep dreaming Galloway! You live in a red state, and there’s nothing you can do about it!
By Mike
March 3, 2008 12:08 AM | Link to this
Democrats need a Black candidate to encourage a large Black turn-out. If Obama is the nominee then Vernon Jones is not needed. The state Democrat party will find a strong White candidate to replace Vernon.
By Harley
March 3, 2008 2:12 AM | Link to this
Obama belongs to a church that is totally about Black Power. He has sworn his soul to Africa; his mother country. Isn’t that going to get in the way if he is the Prez for another Country? Look up his church’s website. Trinity United Church Of Christ in Chicago. Check out their rules. Black Power! I wouldn’t support a KKK member or a Aryan Brotherhood/White Supremecy…so why would I support a person that is for Black Power? I don’t like racism in any form. People that read about this church always change their vote…unless they are black and racist like Obama. They have Louis Farrakhan as a ‘lifelong achievement award member’. Nasty place.
By Will Jones
March 3, 2008 2:29 AM | Link to this
“Red” states are those which have been duped into voting for Anti-Christ closeted homosexual draft-dodgers promoting fascist plutocracy and the Republican Party, culminating in support for 9-11-committing George W. Bush, cheated into the White House by only the Roman Catholics on the Supreme Court, whose father killed John Kennedy to get us dead in Vietnam, and whose grandfather was Hitler’s banker…both fronting for Vatican-banker Rockefeller and Rome’s Fifth Column usurping the U.S.A..
The Great People of Georgia, White and Black, know it and Satan’s time has come to be cast into the Pit with the lying thieves of the party of Greedy Old Perverts.
Obama’s “Bump” will be plenty big in Georgia, thank G-d.
By Bill
March 3, 2008 2:31 AM | Link to this
Hillary tells the voters that their children would be unsafe with Obama as president and safe only with her as president. A completely unfounded and ridiculous idea, but a smear and a fear-pandering gesture for weak minds. She proves herself unfit and sleazy as Bill by running such an ad a preaching it from the stump.
By Adam M
March 3, 2008 2:45 AM | Link to this
Georgia Democrats (and national Dems as well) need to look at the Senate election from a better perspective. Saxby Chambliss won in 2002 by using the lowest degree of backhanded campaigning to strip away every last piece of dignity from a man who didn’t deserve such treatment (which even fellow Republicans distanced themselves from). Over the last five-plus years, he has proven himself to be the most do-nothing member of the Senate, only serving as a warm body to fill a seat and vote for the Bush agenda. Even with a McCain victory in November, Chambliss and his chokehold on the party line becomes irrelevant, and this state is worthy of someone of a much greater caliber to represent it in Washington.
One thing’s for sure, though: as 2004 indicated, that person is not going to be a run-of-the-mill DeKalb County crackpot headcase. If Georgia Dems want to stand a chance in November, they need to avoid talking themselves into seeing Vernon Jones as an electable candidate.
By Charles
March 3, 2008 7:41 AM | Link to this
It is hard to know who is telling the truth, so maybe we should flip a coin.
By Don
March 3, 2008 8:03 AM | Link to this
Harley:
been debunked time and time again. Anybody concerned wasn’t going to vote for him anyway.
We know that there are no racists in the republican party, right? Except the people who keep spewing this trash, of course.
By Will Jones
March 3, 2008 8:04 AM | Link to this
Vernon Jones is not electable in Georgia. He is either a criminal pervert or, at “best,” merely deviant.
By Todd
March 3, 2008 8:51 AM | Link to this
It is amazing how racist so many have been collectively calling Obama “black.” The guy had a white mother and an East African father who was an exchange student. The father hit the road when he was two and he was then raised for several years by his white mom and an Indonesian dad. Then he went and stayed until 18 with his white grandparents in Hawaii—black population of about 1% … Then he attended Punahou.I am from Hawaii and Punahou’s “black” population is about .00001%.
So let’s be realistic about his “black” heritage or even identity. From both genes and culture, he has been 50% MAX black. Realistically, the guy has no connections at all with American “blacks” outside his wife.
By GaTech CR
March 3, 2008 10:11 AM | Link to this
http://www.tondeestavern.com/frontPage.do
From the Liberal Left Blogs…well put! Jane Kidd needs to start looking for a new job…The new interest by the DSCC, and the poll that validates the Josh Lanier - Zogby poll we saw last month, is sure to revive the day dreaming of fantasy candidates for the US Senate. As many of you know, I have on many occasions discouraged such fantasy talk as counter productive to the task at hand, but in this case I’m going to indulge to make a point.
First, I don’t pretend to have any interesting information on candidates who are “considering it”, but like many others, I too have heard Jim Martin’s name pop up numerous times.
Jim Martin is loved by many in the party (me included), and would surely make the race more interesting. If conventional wisdom is driven by the ability to raise money, then Martin would also presumably be in a better position then any of the 5 current candidates in attempting parity with Saxby. A Martin candidacy would almost immediately make this race a 2 tiered primary with Martin and Jones in the top tier, with the others looking for ways to break through.
But even in that scenario, a Martin candidacy is not necessarily one that maximizes the “Obama Effect” that is driving this renewed interest. If the DSCC or state party is really interested in recruiting, they would do well to coax one of 2 candidates to run that have better qualities, and would bring a more interesting dynamic to this race.
Those candidates? Rep. Sanford Bishop or Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond.
Each candidate is an elected official with Bishop a long time Congressman, and Thurmond a twice elected statewide office holder. They each have natural bases of support. Both have the ability to raise sums of money that, while probably not ever reaching Saxby size, would none the less make them competitive in that metric (Bishop is sitting on ~450K on hand right now). Both Bishop and Thurmond are super credible african american candidates that can truly optimize the “Obama Effect”. Oh and a bonus, both would very likely stomp Vernon Jones into the ground.
But therein lies the crux of the problem. Bishop has flatly rejected running, and nothing has ever come from Thurmond even remotely close to interest. Even the Jim Martin buzz is just that; it’s just buzz (I heard that name last year). Absent anything concrete coming from the party establishment, we are squarely where we were last August. The dial hasn’t moved an inch. This talk continues to be a distraction. We had the opportunity to really recruit last fall but that didn’t happen.
The party establishment needs to make a move, figure out a way to fall in line (somewhere), or just get out of the way and sit it out.
By onlinesavant
March 3, 2008 10:12 AM | Link to this
Harley: Since when did Africa, the cradle of man-kind, become a “country”? It always kills me to hear people, usually white people, who say that they “Don’t like racism of any kind” and then turn around and show their ignorance by calling Africa a “country”.
By Todd
March 3, 2008 10:42 AM | Link to this
Uhhh … onlinesavanat, I have no idea what the other guy said, but as I tell my students, let’s try to get “edumuhcated,” okay? Africa is a country, so is any other body of land. You may be thinking of a nation (group of people) or a state (government), which it is not.
By onlinesavant
March 3, 2008 4:14 PM | Link to this
First of all, it’s “savant”, obviously, you don’t teach spelling to your students. Secondly, I was thinking country. Just as the United States is a country, the continent of Africa, the second largest in the world, is not.
By Churchill
March 3, 2008 4:35 PM | Link to this
Todd makes my point about government education.
Gov’t sanctioned questions, Todd:
How many Continents are on the face of the earth?
What are the names of the seven Continents?
Is Africa a country?
Can you believe that Todd may teach your children? Honestly, is this the “education” the libs want?
By Churchill is gay
March 3, 2008 8:34 PM | Link to this
Sorry for my hate I am a self loathing queer
By Churchill
March 3, 2008 9:09 PM | Link to this
I love it. 3 nights in a row. Libs resort to blind attacks. No substance. Carry on, Please.
By John Wayne
March 3, 2008 9:21 PM | Link to this
Churchhill “3 nights in a row” something your wife hasn’t heard since her 1st boyfriend..you repubs should stay out of bathrooms and trying to control what goes on in other peoples bedrooms service your wife not your angry sadistic vices god help u pig
By Kris
March 4, 2008 10:59 AM | Link to this
Don’t underestimate Josh Lanier.
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