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Wednesday, January 2, 2008
And the winner will be …
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Former Sen. John Edwards could walk out of the Iowa caucuses a winner Thursday night, according to a new poll by InsiderAdvantage and Majority Opinion Research of Atlanta.
Using the same methodology the group used in 2004 to correctly predict a comfortable victory for then-Democratic presidential contender John Kerry, the new poll shows Edwards taking 41 percent of the votes by the time balloting is complete.
The group has been conducting a daily tracking poll in Iowa since Dec. 26 and found a statistical tie between Edwards and front-runner Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) with Sen. Barack Obama a few points back in third.
But Edwards is the overwhelming second choice for voters whose favored candidates fail to reach the benchmark 15 percent of the vote. And once the poll is adjusted to reallocate such factors, Edwards wins.
InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery said the reallocation of delegates on a second ballot “gives rural areas, where Edwards is running strong, the opportunity to have a disproportionately significant impact on the ultimate outcome.”
Which means this: Edwards, 41; Clinton 34; Obama, 25.
In contrast to Democrats, Republican numbers in Iowa are an unpredictable mish mash.
“As for Republicans,” he said, “I’m not comfortable releasing numbers yet. … The numbers probably won’t settle until immediately prior to voting.”
A frigid Cardwell on a stick — he made it through the night
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Dale Cardwell is alive, though slightly frozen. We just got off the phone with him.
The Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate had himself hoisted to the top of the Corey smokestack yesterday, and vows to stay there until people start paying attention to his message.
He just happened to pick the coldest night of the winter to start his stunt. “It was bitterly, bitterly cold. But I made it through the night,” Cardwell said.
Right now, he’s huddling beneath a tarp in a sleeping bag — and not on his web cam.
“I’m going to try to wait for it to warm up a bit before I emerge,” he said. Cardwell suspects that will be about noon, when the sun gets to his side of the tower — which he found wobbles a bit in the wind.
You can find his web cam here.
