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DEL.ICIO.USAnd the winner will be …
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Former Sen. John Edwards could walk out of the Iowa caucuses a winner Thursday night, according to a new poll by InsiderAdvantage and Majority Opinion Research of Atlanta.
Using the same methodology the group used in 2004 to correctly predict a comfortable victory for then-Democratic presidential contender John Kerry, the new poll shows Edwards taking 41 percent of the votes by the time balloting is complete.
The group has been conducting a daily tracking poll in Iowa since Dec. 26 and found a statistical tie between Edwards and front-runner Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) with Sen. Barack Obama a few points back in third.
But Edwards is the overwhelming second choice for voters whose favored candidates fail to reach the benchmark 15 percent of the vote. And once the poll is adjusted to reallocate such factors, Edwards wins.
InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery said the reallocation of delegates on a second ballot “gives rural areas, where Edwards is running strong, the opportunity to have a disproportionately significant impact on the ultimate outcome.”
Which means this: Edwards, 41; Clinton 34; Obama, 25.
In contrast to Democrats, Republican numbers in Iowa are an unpredictable mish mash.
“As for Republicans,” he said, “I’m not comfortable releasing numbers yet. … The numbers probably won’t settle until immediately prior to voting.”
Comments
By Mike
January 2, 2008 5:56 PM | Link to this
New poll? That’s from Dec 31st. The latest polls from the Des Moines Register and Strategic Vision now show Obama surging into the lead.
By Charles
January 3, 2008 7:18 AM | Link to this
The ‘reallocation’ of votes for the Democraps in the Iowa Caucus fits the mold. I’ve never seen a group of people who flip-flop more!
I think the Democrap’s motto should be ‘Just take a poll and I’ll let you!’