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Sunday, July 8, 2007
Isakson for governor in 2010? It could happen
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Note: With this posting, the Insider will take a much-needed break. Enjoy the week.
Never mind the ’08 race for the White House.
In Georgia, the climbers, the ambitious, the men and women who see themselves as the Admiral Farraguts of politics — damn the focus groups and full speed ahead! — are all about the campaigns that will peak three years hence.
In 2010, the state will elect a governor, a U.S. senator, and innumerable constitutional officers — not to mention the usual crop of congressmen and members of the state Legislature.
For the last few months, back-room conversation has been building around the one Republican widely seen as the lead domino in the chain of decisions that will determine the look of the GOP field in ’10.
That would be U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson.
Isakson’s first term as senator expires in 2010. He’s in a safe seat. He’s made a significant mark in Washington, despite his junior status. The odds — plus good poll numbers and an efficient fund-raising machine — say his way to re-election would be greased.
But certain voices, particularly in Georgia’s business community, have begun talking up Isakson as a successor to Gov. Sonny Perdue.
The speculation has increased since the Legislature’s untidy finish this spring, which ended with a raft of vetoes from Perdue and an effort — since abandoned — by lawmakers to call themselves back into session for revenge.
“I hear a lot of quiet talk,” said Kessel Stelling, president of the Bank of North Georgia and a close Isakson ally. “If he was willing, I’d be for it. Johnny’s style of leadership would be very helpful and productive to our state.”
In particular, says Stelling and others, they’re looking for someone who’s willing to tackle head-on the issue of transportation north of I-20.
An Isakson entry in the race for governor would cause turmoil in Republican ranks. He would immediately inherit the mantle of front-runner.
But those who might be squeezed out by Isakson’s presence would have a major consolation prize that should put a sock in any whining: A rare, open U.S. Senate seat.
U.S. Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Sharpsburg) is among those considering the 2010 race for governor. “Lynn’s already told Johnny, ‘If you run for governor, I’m with you,’” said Westmoreland’s chief of staff, Chip Lake.
Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle also has his eye on the office. But he’s only 41, and can afford to bide his time. Brad Alexander, Cagle’s chief of staff, said it’s too early to speculate about such matters.
“Senator Isakson and the lieutenant governor are close friends, and there’s no doubt they’ll continue to maintain that relationship and communicate on a regular basis,” he said.
That’s politi-speak for “When Isakson makes his decision, my boss will be among the first to know.”
Talking to some of Isakson’s closer associates, the decision facing the senator is a mixture of the personal and professional. On the personal side, he’s got seven grandkids in Georgia, and a job that requires non-stop commuting.
But Isakson has also built up a small cache of clout in Washington as a skilled negotiator. He maneuvered a Bush-approved stem cell bill through the Democrat-controlled U.S. Senate this spring. For a time, he was at the center of negotiations over the immigration reform bill.
For this, Isakson took some heat from his party’s right. But when Isakson — and his senior partner, U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss — walked away from the deal, the bill’s fate was sealed. Other Southern Republicans quickly joined the stampede away from the measure.
In D.C., a proven ability to make or break a bargain speaks volumes.
The key question may be whether Isakson’s talent for forging compromise in Washington will be nearly as valuable after the ’08 elections. For the moment, Democrats rule the Senate with a single vote to spare.
Next year, 33 Senate seats are up for re-election. Only 12 of them are held by Democrats. Republicans must defend 21. Given the war in Iraq and conservative disappointment with President Bush, early guesses are that Democrats could pick up three or four seats.
Which could marginalize Isakson — or at least make deals harder to cut. Then, of course, there’s also the matter of who wins the White House.
Risk is another factor. The Senate race that Isakson won in 2004 came after two failed statewide efforts.
Don’t expect a decision from Isakson before November of next year. But if you’re looking for a clue, watch what happens when the Legislature convenes next year in Atlanta.
“If you have another session like [last year’s], it’ll be hard for Johnny not to run,” said Lake, aide to Westmoreland.
