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Monday, June 11, 2007

No surprise — but Gloria Norwood picks Whitehead in 10th District race

While nine other 10th District congressional candidates are sweating under studio lights in Atlanta on Tuesday, engaging in a statewide TV debate, Jim Whitehead will be on the radio, basking in an endorsement from the widow of U.S. Rep. Charlie Norwood.

The Whitehead campaign will have this ad up on local radio on Tuesday, in which Gloria Norwood picks the former state senator from Columbia County to replace her husband in Congress.

“Jim’s a friend. He’s as conservative as Charlie, and almost as independent,” she says.

Last week, Whitehead skipped a forum broadcast on Athens radio. He’s also decided to skip tomorrow’s debate sponsored by the Atlanta Press Club and Georgia Public Television. We’re hear that debate organizers will have an empty chair for him, just in case he changes his mind.

Which isn’t likely.

Whitehead, long considered the front-runner in this race, has raised more than all the other candidates combined for the contest — $576,833, according to reports filed last week.

He had $249,787 in cash on hand. Democrat James Marlow is his nearest rival in the money race, with a total of $122,183 raised and $84,798 in the bank.

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Gingrich on Boortz: He leaves himself and McCain out of the ‘most likelies’ for GOP nomination

Newt Gingrich was on Neal Boortz’ radio show this morning — and again seemed to be writing himself out of contention in the ’08 presidential race.

Gingrich named three GOP candidates he said had a chance at the Republican nomination. Significantly, he didn’t include himself — or U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

“I think the three people most likely to be nominated are Mayor [Rudy] Giuliani, who has had a great record of fighting crime in New York and changing things in New York, [Massachusetts] Gov. [Mitt] Romney, who did a great job turning around the Winter Olympics when it looked like it was going to go bankrupt, and Fred Thompson,” Gingrich said.

The former U.S. House speaker seemed on the verge of declaring himself a “Fred-head” — and noted that former Tennessee senators Howard Baker and Bill Frist are pushing Thompson’s cause.

“If Fred decides to get into this race, he will — overnight — be a major contender. He’s got good knowledge, going back all the way to when he was Howard Baker’s law director on the Watergate committee, he’s got tremendous knowledge about how the system works, he has a presence,” said the former Georgia congressman.

“He has the same advantage Ronald Reagan had of real training in television and in movies. When you watch Fred, you see a guy who’s very comfortable in his own skin.”

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UGA researcher: Iraq war has a 26 percent chance of success — at 10 years

Here’s something you’re likely to read more about tomorrow:

A University of Georgia researcher has determined that the world’s most powerful nations — including the United States — have failed nearly 40 percent of the time in military actions since World War II.

And based on her calculations, the current war in Iraq has a 26 percent probability of success — with an estimated duration of 10 years.

The study by Patricia Sullivan, an assistant professor at the university’s School of Public and International Affairs, looked at 122 interventions in which the United States, the Soviet Union, Russia, China Britain or France fought a weaker adversary.

According to the UGA press release issued Monday, “Sullivan said the most important factor influencing whether the more powerful nation is successful is whether its strategic objective can be accomplished with brute force alone or requires the cooperation of the adversary.”

Update at 12:24 p.m.: Sullivan was kind enough to provide this copy of her entire study.

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