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Wednesday, October 18, 2006
As the worm turns, part two
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A couple of days ago, Republican Rep. Lamar Smith of Texas was in Macon stumping for Republican congressional challenger Mac Collins. The press release announcing Smith’s visit confidently referred to him as the “next chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.�
Smith will be the chairman, that is, if the Republicans hold on to the majority in the House in the November election. And as of Tuesday, even Vice President Dick Cheney, talking to Rush Limbaugh, would say only that he thought the GOP had a “good shot� at that.
Which is a good place to start what could be a long discussion about the potential impact on Georgia of an election in which the key battlegrounds are in other states.
Candidates in Georgia have grown accustomed to calling attention to the influence they could wield in Washington, and the powerful allies they have. Party allegiances have changed over time, but with only a small bump in the early ‘50s, Georgia has been in the functional majority ever since FDR and the Great Depression.
On Nov. 7, that might change.
The state’s overall clout in Washington, already greatly declined since the departure of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, might sag even more. No longer would the state’s seven Republicans, assuming that’s how many there would be, have any sway with the House leadership.
Don’t feel guilty if you need reminding that the state’s six Democratic House members are John Lewis, Sanford Bishop, Cynthia McKinney (who would be replaced next year by Hank Johnson if he wins in November), Jim Marshall, David Scott and John Barrow.
You can expect to hear a lot more about this group if they become part of a Democratic House majority next year. With a pipeline to the House leadership, they could project an image quite different from the days when McKinney made all the headlines.
And while it probably wouldn’t wash in most of the state’s solidly grown Republican districts, you might begin to hear Democratic challenger candidates make the argument that with one more Democrat the state’s delegation could once again be mainly on the majority side.
That’s peering into elections beyond this one, which is still very much in doubt. But it’s a first pass at how the world – including Georgia – might change this Election Day.
Strategic Vision poll: A down-ballot view
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Strategic Vision, the GOP-oriented public affairs firm in Atlanta, has a statewide poll out today. Its view of the governor’s race echoes the survey put out by Insider Advantage earlier this week.
But Strategic Vision also has some interesting numbers on the down-ballot races — which show that incumbent Democrats are in pretty good shape.
The SV poll also shows the impact of the Mark Foley scandal on attitudes toward Congress. U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert should be glad he ain’t from around here.
The poll is a three-day survey of 800 likely Georgia voters, with a margin of error of three percentage points. As with any poll — excepting our own, of course — we don’t endorse the results. But neither can we resist them.
Here’s a sampling of topics:
— When asked if they believed that GOP congressional leaders handled the Mark Foley scandal properly, 19 percent said ‘yes,’ and 59 percent said no. Twenty-two percent were undecided.
— 48 percent said Hastert should step down.
— In the match-up for governor, Republican incumbent Sonny Perdue scored 50 percent; Democrat Mark Taylor had 36 percent; Libertarian Garrett Michael Hayes had 5 percent; and 9 percent remained undecided.
— For lieutenant governor, Republican Casey Cagle led with 45 percent; Democrat Jim Martin was close behind at 38 percent; and Libertarian Allen Buckley received 5 percent. Undecideds were 12 percent.
— In the race for Secretary of State, Republican Karen Handel led Democrat Gail Buckner, 33 percent to 27 percent.
— For attorney general, incumbent Democrat Thurbert Baker led Republican Perry McGuire 47 percent to 26 percent.
— In the school superintendent’s race, Republican incumbent Kathy Cox led Democrat Denise Majette 47 percent to 29 percent.
— In the race for state agriculture commissioner, incumbent Democrat Tommy Irvin led Republican Gary Black 47 percent to 33 percent.
— For state Insurance commissioner, incumbent Republican John Oxendine led Democrat Guy Drexinger 49 percent to 29 percent.
— And in the race for state labor commissioner, incumbent Democrat Michael Thurmond led Republican Brent Brown 47percent to 31 percent.
Cox still appears with Democrats. Maybe it’s something personal with Taylor.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Secretary Cathy Cox may prefer appearances with Gov. Sonny Perdue, a Republican, to standing side-by-side with her former Democratic rival, Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor.
But she’s still cultivating support among Democrats, particularly in state House races. On Tuesday, Cox paid a visit to Gainesville on behalf of Lydia Sartain, the former district attorney who’s running against state Rep. Carl Rogers, the Republican incumbent.
It’s a tighter than expected race, though Rogers has a clear financial advantage.
Cox wouldn’t use the word “endorse” when it came to Sartain. But she went after Rogers with a shovel for his authorship of changes to state laws regulating cemeteries. Here’s the report from Harris Blackwood of the Gainesville Times.
We also talked yesterday to House Minority Leader DuBose Porter of Dublin. He said Cox is on the hook to help Democrats reclaim her old House seat, now occupied by Gene Maddox of Cairo. Maddox, a Republican, is facing Stanley Mobley of Whigham.
