Home > Political Insider > Archives > 2006 > July > 28
Friday, July 28, 2006
Support Darryl Hicks, see the world
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
With a Democratic finale blazing in the 4th District congressional race, Darryl Hicks — who finished second last week behind Gail Buckner in the Democratic race for secretary of state — has a good chance of breaking Chuck Bullock’s run-off odds mentioned below.
Hicks is African-American. Buckner is white.
But to win the run-off, Hicks needs money. And he’s tapping some interesting friends. Atlanta music mogul Jermaine Dupri and a slew of other black entertainers, athletes and such have lined up for an Aug. 3, $250-a-head fund-raiser at Cafe Dupri (a “health-minded restaurant”) in Buckhead.
One name on the list that especially pops: Dallas Austin, a recent resident of Dubai.
Martin hits the radio with Franklin’s endorsement
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Campaign-wise, this has been a mostly quiet week. Most candidates have been locked in little rooms, with a phone duct-taped to their head, raising money for a burst of activity that will consume the next week and a half.
But Jim Martin, one of two Democratic candidates in a run-off for lieutenant governor, is up on WSB radio (and who knows where else) with this endorsement spot from Atlanta Mayor Shirley Franklin.
The other candidate in the race is Greg Hecht, the Jonesboro attorney and former state senator.
Franklin formally endorsed Martin on Monday. The mayor manages to squeeze six “Jim Martin’s” and two “Jim’s” into 60 seconds. No Jimmy’s or Jimbo’s or Jim-bob’s. She also manages to remind voters that Roy Barnes and Andy Young are also backing Martin.
The significance? If Martin’s first out of the gate with media, that suggests he also is having an easier time raising money.
In a run-off, bet on the leader
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Chuck Bullock, the moustachioed political scientist at the University of Georgia, wrote the book on run-offs.
He’s published a reminder today on the InsiderAdvantage web site. Here’s a tidbit:
“The general pattern is for the candidate who led the primary to prevail in the runoff. An extensive analysis over many years found that the primary leader held position and won the runoff about 70 percent of the time. (See Charles S. Bullock, III, and Loch K. Johnson, Runoff Elections in the United States.) In 2004 the primary leader won 69 percent of the runoffs. The prospects for the primary leader improve as the size of the margin over the second place finisher widens.
“The advantaged position of the primary leader does not extend to incumbents who get forced into a second primary. In 93 Georgia runoffs involving incumbents conducted since 1970, incumbents who led at the initial stage secured the nomination only 42 percent of the time.
“Only four congressional incumbents have competed in Georgia runoffs in recent years. Two won and two lost the runoff after leading in the first primary.”
Read the rest here, but be aware this is a subscription site.
