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DEL.ICIO.USIn a run-off, bet on the leader
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Chuck Bullock, the moustachioed political scientist at the University of Georgia, wrote the book on run-offs.
He’s published a reminder today on the InsiderAdvantage web site. Here’s a tidbit:
“The general pattern is for the candidate who led the primary to prevail in the runoff. An extensive analysis over many years found that the primary leader held position and won the runoff about 70 percent of the time. (See Charles S. Bullock, III, and Loch K. Johnson, Runoff Elections in the United States.) In 2004 the primary leader won 69 percent of the runoffs. The prospects for the primary leader improve as the size of the margin over the second place finisher widens.
“The advantaged position of the primary leader does not extend to incumbents who get forced into a second primary. In 93 Georgia runoffs involving incumbents conducted since 1970, incumbents who led at the initial stage secured the nomination only 42 percent of the time.
“Only four congressional incumbents have competed in Georgia runoffs in recent years. Two won and two lost the runoff after leading in the first primary.”
Read the rest here, but be aware this is a subscription site.
Comments
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By Drayton Xavier
July 31, 2006 3:21 PM | Link to this
One thing not noted in the above analysis is that, in some races, there can be an insurmountable difference between two candidates who make a runoff. For instance, in a crowded field, if the leading candidate scores over 45%, but the second place candidate scores in the 20% range, then you pretty much can assume a victory for the leader because he/she only needs his own votes again, plus a very small total from one of the losing candidates. On the flip side, if, as in the current runoff for Secretary of State, the candidates are at 25% and 22%, then it is pretty much irrelevant in terms of who came in first and second place since BOTH fell far short of 50%. It’s just going to come down to who can motivate his/her voters to come out again, and who can place better with the other candidates’ voters. In that vein, I think that Darryl Hicks will win on Tuesday August 8th. Harder to say on the Congressional Race, but from reading the AJC, Johnson appears to be the favorite over McKinney at this point, thus that election would also debunk the Bullock’s odds.
By Keith Gaddie
August 1, 2006 8:47 AM | Link to this
Well, Drayton, if you read Bullock’s book, you’d see that he agrees with you. And, if you look at more recent work he did, you’d see that it is the ability to spend and turnout vote in the second round that dictates the result, The spending of a 2d place finisher is much more important than spending by the first-place finisher. Hicks’ is the classic type of candidate who does prevail coming out of second place in a runoff.