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Sunday, April 30, 2006
A primary pitched toward Peachtree Street
Silent Republicans, squawking Democrats -- the shape of this year's primaries
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The politicians have put their money down, and we know a lot more than we did before last week’s qualifying period about how other primary races might affect the big statewide races in each party.
In a nutshell, the Democrats will have a lot more to sort out, up and down the ticket, than Republicans this coming July 18. And there will be more for Democrats to sort out in Metro Atlanta than anywhere else.
The three major candidates in the Democratic lieutenant governor’s race are from Metro Atlanta, and the only congressional primary likely to spark turnout is Hank Johnson’s and John Coyne’s challenge to 4th District Rep. Cynthia McKinney. Most of this year’s competitive state Senate primary races are for Metro Atlanta, Democratic seats, and there are several primaries for House seats rippling off those races.
As Rep. Nan Orrock, one of three Democrats competing for the departing Sen. Sam Zamarripa’s seat, put it, there’s the makings of “a very healthy, robust primary in the heartland of Democratic voters.�
Not that a quiet primary is a bad thing. In fact, for Republicans it’s a sign of success in the form of increasingly entrenched incumbents. But in does mean that across most of the state, by far the hottest race attracting Republicans to their primary will be the Ralph Reed-Casey Cagle lite gov duel, with little else for them to decide.
As the former state party chairman and executive director of the Christian Coalition, Reed would seem the beneficiary of a low-turnout Republican primary, if that’s how it turns out.
Which of the South Georgians running for governor, Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor or Secretary of State Cathy Cox, benefits from a Democratic primary tilted more than ever toward Peachtree Street?
With a lot of women candidates involved in these Metro races, Cox might gain some advantage. But so many turnout-inducing races in such an expensive media market could also be a boon to a candidate who can spend money and put up effective ads – something Taylor has demonstrated he can do.
Democrats see silver lining in delay
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
However a federal panel rules on Democratic Rep. Jane Kidd’s redistricting challenge, the court order extending qualifying until next next Friday for Athens and surrounding areas gives Democrats at least a chance to improve their position.
Kidd is challenging the way Republicans redrew three Senate districts, including the one she’s running for, in this year’s legislative session. But qualifying for 13 House districts in and around Athens has also been extended, giving Democrats another week to find candidates for seven House seats where Republicans are so far unchallenged.
One of those Republicans is Rep. Mickey Channell of Greensboro, a recent party switcher. Democrats would surely like to find a challenger for him, but it remains to be seen how far they’ll go to represent in all these races.
Rep. Calvin Smyre (D-Columbus) characterized the decrease in the number of House races where Democrats will oppose Republicans this fall, from more than 50 two years ago to 36, as a positive development from the standpoint of the party’s ability to fund truly competitive races. In other words, they can no longer spend money just to show the flag.
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