America’s passage of nuclear power

Washington —- It is a simple transfer of immense power.

On Jan. 20, an unobtrusive military officer carrying a small leather-bound metal briefcase will follow President George W. Bush up to Capitol Hill. After the inauguration ceremony, he will accompany President Barack Obama back to the White House.

Inside the attache, known as “the football,” are the codes to identify and authenticate a presidential order that could launch nuclear weapons and ignite a global holocaust.

Routine to most Americans, perhaps astonishing to much of the world, this peaceful passing of “the football” will propel Obama into a maelstrom. What awaits the new commander-in-chief is the responsibility of defending the United States —- and a nasty brew of nuclear-weapons problems that include the threat of terrorist attacks as well as potential new regional and superpower arms races. Iran and North Korea are believed to be rushing headlong toward building nuclear arsenals. And the main arms-reduction treaty with Russia expires next year.

Those known challenges arise from an unruly world thrown into deeper turmoil by the global financial crisis, a world in which nuclear technology spreads like wildfire and almost 10,000 nuclear weapons could be on alert at any given time.

The risk of nuclear war will grow during the next 20 years, U.S. intelligence officers concluded this month. Surprise, in this realm, is almost a given.

“It is immensely sobering when you are actually confronted with all the responsibility related to nuclear weapons,” said Matthew Bunn, a former White House nuclear-weapons adviser now at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

That will become clear with Obama’s first peek inside the ever-present briefcase. The secure phone nestled inside will connect him to the nuclear command centers at the Pentagon, Colorado Springs, Colo., and “Site R,” the bunkered emergency command center near Blue Ridge Summit, Pa. Through them, the president can reach the 1,300 U.S. strategic nuclear weapons always on alert.

Inside the case he also will find a notebook listing attack options —- from a single shot to all-out war —- from which the president may choose and order.

Previous presidents have found all this hard to absorb.

“The most sober and startling I ever heard,” Ronald Reagan said of his first briefing on the nuclear options —- so disturbing that it helped launch him on a quest to abolish nuclear weapons altogether.

Obama has outlined an ambitious plan for tackling many of these issues.

“Here’s what I will say as president: America seeks a world in which there are no nuclear weapons,” he said in an Oct. 2, 2007, speech in Chicago. While working toward that long-range goal, he said the United States “will not pursue unilateral disarmament. As long as nuclear weapons exist, we’ll retain a strong nuclear deterrent.”

But he vowed to reach an agreement with Russia “to take U.S. and Russian ballistic missiles off hair-trigger alert” and to negotiate significant reductions in U.S. and Russian nuclear-weapon stockpiles.

He also intends to pursue tough negotiations with Iran and North Korea to halt their nuclear-weapons programs.

And he has promised to lock down all nuclear material around the world at vulnerable sites “within four years.”

RISING RISKS

> America’s top spy agencies say the possibility of a new nuclear-arms race in the Middle East, ignited by Iran’s alleged race to build a nuclear arsenal, promises new instabilities “potentially more dangerous than the Cold War.” The six Persian Gulf states, within easy missile range of Iran, have said they are pursuing “peaceful” nuclear energy programs.

> The gulf states are among 50 nations interested in building new nuclear facilities. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, 439 nuclear power reactors are operating in 30 countries, with 36 plants under construction. The increased nuclear activity “naturally increases the risk that nuclear material could be diverted to make nuclear weapons,” IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei told the United Nations. This year alone, the IAEA has investigated 250 incidents involving the loss or theft of nuclear or radioactive material. Much of it is never recovered, he said.

> Weak regimes, such as North Korea, might acquire and then lose control of nuclear weapons, or might be tempted by new approaches, such as using low-yield nuclear blasts or high-altitude detonations to cripple enemy communications.

> Under Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin, who has vowed to “significantly increase” Russia’s aircraft, missile and submarine nuclear-weapon launchers, Russia is building two new classes of intercontinental ballistic missile and deploying a new class of ballistic missile submarine. Senior Russian officials, including Putin, have threatened to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia’s interests, and they have aggressively deployed Russian bombers and warships for the first time in years.

> Americans will remain vulnerable at home to a nuclear-related catastrophe, whether in the form of a “dirty bomb” that spreads radioactivity or a smuggled nuclear device.

—- Baltimore Sun