Lanier’s return to full will be a long time coming

The year since Lake Sidney Lanier hit a record low has offered an apocalyptic peek at metro Atlanta’s drought-drained water source.

Weeds, shrubs and infant trees have invaded the virgin shore. Boat ramps end well before the water begins. Many docks are grounded, their extenders maxed out behind pricey homes.

In some dry coves, stranded boats are strewn like litter on a highway.

“It’s been down so long, I can’t even remember what it looked like full anymore,” said Clay Cunningham, a 31-year-old fishing guide who grew up 2 miles from the lake. “I’ve grown used to it, almost.”

The relentless drought that first crept into metro Atlanta more than 2 1/2 years ago has many victims, from landscapers to fishing guides. None show more visible scars than Lanier.

Last year, the lake’s red clay-ringed shoreline made national news, along with dire warnings that the South’s capital city could run out of water. Lanier is out of the spotlight this year, but not much better off.

Earlier this month, Lanier came within 2 inches of breaking last year’s record low before several inches of rain pumped in billions of gallons of water. Today the lake is more than a foot above the record low elevation set Dec. 26, 2007, and still more than 17 feet below full.

That, despite several unprecedented steps:

> In 2008, metro Atlantans cut their summertime water use by as much as one-third and wintertime use between 5 percent and 14 percent, according to state data. Conservation was pushed by tight state restrictions on outdoor water use, rising water rates, and Gov. Sonny Perdue’s mandate to reduce water use by 10 percent.

> Starting late last year, the lake’s operators, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, reduced the amount of water leaving Lanier by as much as one-half after heated pressure from Georgia officials. The move stopped the lake’s months-long free fall caused when the corps sent water down the Chattahoochee River to Florida to maintain a small coal-fired power plant and protect endangered and threatened freshwater mussels.

> For the past year, the corps has released only enough water from Lanier’s Buford Dam to meet this region’s needs. The water releases include enough to maintain water quality in the Chattahoochee as it winds through metro Atlanta, taking in millions of gallons of treated wastewater every day.

> Twice this year, the corps —- acting on requests from the state —- agreed to keep even more water in Lanier by dipping below the required minimum flow for water quality in the river. State and federal officials say the change can be made because the water quality naturally improves during cold-weather months. The latest request, approved last month, is in effect through the end of April.

The collective efforts are unheard of for a normally wet region of the country that had taken its water supply for granted.

Without them, the lake would be in far worse shape, state officials say.

But the fact that Lanier is not any higher today is evidence of the unrelenting drought, the lake’s massive size, and its precarious position at the top of the Chattahoochee watershed, fed only by small rivers and streams. Trying to refill Lanier from such a depleted state is akin to filling an Olympic-sized swimming pool with a garden hose. It takes time.

Even if North Georgia receives above-average rainfall in 2009, the National Weather Service predicts it could take more than a year to refill Lanier, now about two-thirds full.

That’s why it will take more than the recent rainfall —- and last week’s favorable forecast from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center saying the drought should ease this winter —- to persuade state officials to lift the remaining outdoor watering restrictions. Most metro Atlantans are still limited to watering with a garden hose for no more than 25 minutes on a three-day-a-week schedule.

“We still have to be very cautious,” Georgia Environmental Protection Division spokesman Kevin Chambers said. “We’re still not getting the rain that we need.”

If Lanier is the drought’s largest casualty, then some of its most severe collateral damage is to the homes and businesses on it.

The ongoing drought and the increasingly depressed housing market have whipsawed home sales and values on the lake, said Frank Norton Jr., president of the Norton Agency in Gainesville, the lake’s dominant real estate agency and developer.

Of the 9,800 homes with private docks on Lanier, the number of sales plummeted from 232 in 2006 to this year’s total of 88 through Dec. 15, he said. If the 2008 figure holds, that’s a drop of 62 percent.

The silver lining is average sales prices, which increased from $588,254 in 2006 to $605,550 in 2008. They peaked at $645,000 in 2007, Norton said, indicating both a resiliency in the market and the financial capacity of lake homeowners who can hang on rather than sell for less than they want.

“The buyers on Lake Lanier today are educated buyers. They’ve seen the lake up, and they’ve seen the lake down,” Norton said. “It’s still a huge lake.”

Norton estimates about 65 percent of private docks still have water under them, and an enhanced value as a result.

Bill and Barbara Loden, a retired couple who moved to Lake Lanier from Roswell 11 years ago, are not so fortunate. They own two docks that have been sitting in mud for most of the past two years, along with their deck boat.

Of all the ironies, they were recently out with their dog Lucky on a bitterly cold day battening down the boat against an expected rainstorm.

“You still have to pay dock fees. You still maintain things, but you’re not enjoying anything but a bunch of weeds,” Bill Loden said.

The depth finder on Cunningham’s boat depicts what an even drier Lanier would look like. In the middle of the lake, at depths of 70 to 100 feet, his radar perfectly outlines the trees beneath, still standing a half century after the valley was filled in.

“If it drops another 8 to 10 feet, that’s when it’s going to start to look like the national forest out here,” he said.

Cunningham estimates his guide business was down about 50 percent even before the economic meltdown. The only bright spot on the horizon for him is Perdue’s recent announcement that Lanier had landed a $2.5 million bass tournament —- in 2010.

THE MEASURE OF A CRISIS

3 years, 3 months, 15 days: How long it’s been since Lake Lanier was full.

2: Number of public boat ramps still usable on Lanier, out of nearly 60 around the lake.

67: Percent of water left in Lanier.

45: Percent of the normal inflow —- or amount of water —- Lanier has received so far this year from feeder streams and tributaries.

23: Percent of Lanier’s 38,000-acre surface area that is now exposed shoreline.

* Percentages are based on Lanier’s present elevation of 1,052 feet above sea level.

Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

 CHARLES W. JONES / Staff 
LANIER STILL ON LIFE SUPPORT 
Recent rain helps Lake Lanier, but metro Atlanta's primary water source is a long way from normal. 
1. March 2006: Drought begins. 
2. April - June 2006: Faulty gauge leads to two-foot drop. 
3. June 2006: Drought officially declared, triggering statewide watering restrictions. State officials warn the metro region's 
water supply is at risk. 
4. September 2007: State enacts near-total ban on outdoor watering in North Georgia. Federal officials warn that Lanier is likely 
to hit a new record low. 
5. October 2007: State predicts Lanier could "run dry" in 80 days and mandates 10 percent cut in North Georgia's 
water use. 
6. November - December 2007: The White House brokers a deal with Georgia, Alabama and Florida to keep more water in Lanier. 
7. January 2008: General Assembly passes statewide water plan, but with no new funds. 
8. February 2008: Gov. Perdue eases restrictions on outdoor water use to allow some landscape watering and filling of swimming pools. 
9. March - May 2008: The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers cuts water released down the Chattahoochee River by 13 percent, holding more in Lanier. 
10. November 2008 and continuing through April 2009: The corps minimizes water released from Lanier. 

Graph compares Average lake level and Actual lake level from year 2005 to Friday, Dec. 19, 2008 (1.052.3 feet above sea level). Record low: 1,050.79, Dec. 26, 2007.

Winter full: 1,070
Summer full: 1,071

Note: All elevations are feet above sea level. 
Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 

Staff
Map locates Buford Dam. Inset map outlines area of detail relative to metro Atlanta.