State’s partisan shift to red trickled over time

Sixteen years ago, Georgia was on the blueish side of purple, a state where voters went for a Democratic president, and the party controlled a preponderance of federal and state offices.

Today, Georgia is dirt red, with Republicans controlling the General Assembly and a majority of statewide and federal seats. And that November day in 1992 was the last time Georgia sent a Democrat to the White House.

The wholesale shift from Democrat to Republican was not a sudden change, a levee break, although there were days of deluge that contributed to the flood. And it was not all political, or, at least, not all ideological.

Some, Democrats mostly, believe the state could be in the early stages of a shift back the other way, based on population changes and a gradual morphing of ideology away from the social conservatism that once dominated the GOP. Only time will tell.

The state has changed in 16 years. It’s grown with gusto within the same borders in many, and varied, ways.

How things were altered —- from people who were there

KEITH MASON, state flag issue hurt Democrats

Keith Mason was chief of staff to Zell Miller when the Democrat was elected governor in 1990 and helped Bill Clinton win Georgia in 1992. Mason followed Clinton to Washington where he served as an aide to the president. Mason was a delegate to the Democratic National Convention in August.

“Georgia was one of the last Southern states to ever elect a Republican governor. Many of our Southern brethren had received the same type of demographic changes in terms of their growth that Georgia had experienced, i.e., North Carolina and Virginia in particular —- and had elected Republicans. But the Republican Party for many years was basically inept. They began to turn that around, with Newt Gingrich and his rise in the House, but also Paul Coverdell’s leadership. The dam was leaking in ‘92, in ‘94, and it gushed over in 2002.”

The flag issue hurt. Miller tried to get the Confederate emblem off the state flag, but it was Democratic Gov. Roy Barnes, elected in 1998, who suffered most, losing to Perdue in 2002 in part, because of the flag.

He sees the state shifting again.

“Georgia was more Republican in its demographics in 1992 and ‘94, than it may actually be today and it maybe in 2010. It was more white. It was more conservative, and less urban. But our make up, the make-up of our elected officials, was Democratic. But they were not necessarily the Democrats of today and tomorrow.”

ERIC TANENBLATT, GOP ‘architects’ diligent

Eric Tanenblatt helped lead President George Bush’s re-election campaign in Georgia in 1992, was Sonny Perdue’s chief of staff and was a delegate to the Republican National Convention this year.

“1992 was a breakthrough year when things started to change.”

He credits former U.S. Sen. Mack Mattingly, who in 1980 became the first Georgia Republican elected to the Senate, former U.S. Rep. Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and the late Paul Coverdell as being “the architects of the second party in the state.”

“They put a plan in place and the party just built the infrastructure and the grass roots throughout the ’80s.”

Tanenblatt says Bush would have won here in 1992 if it weren’t for Ross Perot. He’s likely right, as Democrat Bill Clinton won with less than 50 percent. Perot drew 13 percent.

“Traveling the state, people would describe themselves as ‘federal Republicans.’ But they wouldn’t call themselves Republicans because Democrats controlled the state for the most part. We knew it was just a matter of time. And it happened in 2002, when Sonny got elected. That really marked the demise of the Democratic Party as we know it.”

Republicans rose to power through better planning, better organizing —- a better ground game.

“We were organized down to the precinct level where the Democrats were somewhat complacent. To our credit, we’ve continued to maintain that because we’ve seen the importance of it.”

Outcome by party in general elections since 1992:

1992

President: D

U.S. House: 7 D, 4 R

U.S. Senate: D

Labor commissioner: D

Public Service commissioner: R

1994

U.S. House: 4 D, 7 R

Governor: D

Lieutenant governor: D

Secretary of state: D

Attorney general: R

Agriculture commissioner: D

Insurance commissioner: R

School superintendent: R

Labor commissioner: D

PSC: 0 D, 2 R

1996

President: R

U.S. House: 3 D, 8 R

U.S. Senate: D

Secretary of state: D

PSC: 1 D, 1 R

1998

U.S. House: 3 D, 8 R

U.S. Senate: R

Governor: D

Lieutenant governor: D

Secretary of state: D

Attorney general: D

Agriculture commissioner: D

Insurance commissioner: R

School superintendent: R

Labor commissioner: D

2000

President: R

U.S. House: 3 D, 8 R

U.S. Senate: D

PSC: 1 D, 1 R

2002

U.S. House: 5 D, 8 R

U.S. Senate: R

Governor: R

Lieutenant governor: D

Secretary of state: D

Attorney general: D

Agriculture commissioner: D

Insurance commissioner: R

School superintendent: R

Labor commissioner: D

Public Service Commissioner: 0 D, 2 R

2004

President: R

U.S. House: 6 D, 7 R

U.S. Senate: R

Public Service Commissioner: 1 R

2006

U.S. House: 6 D, 7 R

Governor: R

Lieutenant governor: R

Secretary of state: R

Attorney general: D

School superintendent: R

Insurance commissioner: R

Labor commissioner: D

Agriculture commissioner: D

Other key notes

> Nov. 8, 2002, three Democratic state senators switch to the GOP, handing Republicans control of the state’s upper chamber for the first time since Reconstruction.

> Nov. 2, 2004, Republicans win control of the state House for the first time since Reconstruction, giving the GOP the governor’s office, House and Senate.

 ELIZABETH LANDT / Staff 
A CHANGING GEORGIA 
Registered voters (Election Day) 
1992: 3,177,061
1996: 3,811,284
2000: 4,648,210
2004: 4,951,955
Sept. 1, 2008: 5,489,495
As the electoral politics have shifted, so have the demographics and the economy.
Population 
1992: 6,817,203
2007: 9,544,750
Total employment
1992: 2.93 million 
2007: 4.08 million 
Unemployment rate
1992: 7% 
August 2008: 6.3% 
Per capita income
1992: $19,075 
2006: $32,095 
Percentage of land in farms
1992: 27.05% 
2002: 29% 
Manufacturing employment 
1992: 489,632 
2007: 431,029 
By race or ethnicity as a percentage of the population
........................1992 ....2007 
White....................71%......66%
Black....................27%......30%
Hispanic..................2% ......8%
Asian/Pacific Islander..1.4% ....2.9% 
Sources: Georgia Secretary of State's office, U.S. Census Bureau, the Georgia Statistics System