SOUTHERN POLITICAL FORUM: WATCHING THE FIRST DEBATE

ANDRA GILLESPIE, assistant professor of political science, Emory University

Because John McCain holds the issue advantage on national security, he enters the debate as the substantive favorite. However, he still has to demonstrate to skeptical voters that he knows how to use diplomacy (as opposed to military strength) in his administration. I suspect that he will also be pushed to defend and define his commitment to a long-term engagement in Iraq.

Barack Obama cannot repeat the mistakes of the Georgian crisis, where he appeared irresolute and unprepared. One of Obama’s vulnerabilities, particularly in the South, is that voters do not perceive him to be a strong leader. His overly nuanced analysis of the crisis only reinforced perceptions of his diffidence. Thus, Obama’s task in this debate is to look like a commander-in-chief. He will have to best McCain in the substance of the foreign policy debate and appear confident while doing so.

My question for the candidates: What will be the foreign policy role of your vice president? I would ask McCain to assess Sarah Palin’s foreign policy readiness, and I would ask Obama if Joe Biden’s foreign policy role would be comparable to Dick Cheney’s role in this administration.

JOHN GEER, distinguished professor of political science, Vanderbilt University

McCain has an edge in this debate, since the topic is foreign policy. Obama needs to show his own understanding of the international affairs. More important, he must find a way to connect with older white voters. He is doing extremely well among African-Americans; surprisingly well among Latinos and pretty well among younger voters.

But white voters over 50 remain a hurdle. Obama needs to show a personal style that will resonate with them and get them comfortable with the idea of “President Obama.” So far he has failed to do so. All too often, debates simply rehash the standard stump speech. Obama must avoid being too scripted and show older voters why they should cast their ballots for him. If he does so, they may just hand him the keys to the White House.

My question for the candidates: If your national security adviser walked into the Oval Office and told you that the Golden Gate Bridge had just been blown up by al-Qaida terrorists, what would be the first question you would ask?

DAVID ROHDE, Ernestine Friedl professor of political science, Duke University

Obama will continue to portray the prospect of a McCain presidency as merely another four years of the Bush administration, highlighting the policies on which the Republican candidate has agreed with the president.

Meanwhile, Obama will draw attention to matters like the decision to go to war in Iraq, where he may be able to claim (with voter agreement) that he was right and McCain was wrong. McCain, on the other hand, will emphasize Obama’s inexperience in national security affairs and tout his own past credentials as a “maverick.”

My question for the candidates: Our military forces are so stretched by the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that we would not be able to respond effectively to any new crisis requiring a significant number of ground troops. What changes to our armed forces, or to our decision-making about military priorities, do you propose to make it possible again to protect our security interests?

MARY STUCKEY, professor of communication and political science, Georgia State University

Foreign policy would seem to favor McCain rather than Obama, and I would expect McCain to rely heavily on his personal experience and biography as evidence of his foreign policy expertise. As we saw at the Republican convention, this is emotionally satisfying, but may make people wonder what his actual policies are if he fails to be specific enough, and if he makes any major mistakes, that could undermine his whole campaign. Obama is more likely to talk policy than biography. The danger here is that, standing next to McCain, he may appear to lack the proper biography.

My question for the candidates: How do you manage global military responsibilities? Assuming we must remain engaged in the world, assuming we must maintain military readiness, and given the demands on our military, how do we remain able to address real threats without stretching our resources to the breaking point?

AUDREY HAYNES, associate professor, School of Public and International Affairs, University of Georgia

My gut tells me that each candidate will be very tough on the other —- polite while gritting their teeth. Obama is going to try very hard to get his message out since he has not been able to really do so over the past two weeks. McCain is going to try to demonstrate that he is the more experienced candidate in foreign policy/security. Obama will try to make a case that McCain has made the wrong calls on these issues and represents more of the same. We may see McCain trying to make Obama look as if he is young, inexperienced and naive. Obama will try to make McCain look like he’s trapped in the Cold War mentality and that he does not know how to interact in the 21st century global community.

My question for the candidates: According to a 2007 survey of 28,000 people across 27 countries conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes (PIPA) at the University of Maryland (for the BBC), positive evaluations of the United States have declined significantly in the last four years. Why do you think world opinion toward the United States has become so negative and what do you think should be done about it?

DAVID LANOUE, professor of political science, University of Alabama

The foreign policy debate creates opportunities and risks for each candidate. John McCain will have the chance to display his mastery of international affairs and to highlight his early and gutsy support for the Iraq surge. He will almost certainly highlight Barack Obama’s opposition to the surge as evidence of the Democrat’s faulty judgment. Still, voters remain war-weary, and McCain must persuade them that his presidency will, where possible, build alliances and seek peaceful crisis resolution, especially vis-a-vis Iran.

For Obama’s part, a vigorous and knowledgeable debate performance could do a great deal to firm up his shaky foreign policy credentials. If voters come away from the debate convinced that Obama would show strength and resolve in dealing with America’s adversaries, he will be the big winner. But any significant error or gaffe —- real or perceived —- could be especially damaging.

My question for the candidates: Under what specific circumstances, if any, would you conclude that the United States must resume a military draft?