GWINNETT COUNTY: Population leader slips, victim of housing slump

For as long as many folks can remember, Gwinnett County has been metro Atlanta’s population champ —- adding people faster than any other county around.

No more.

According to Atlanta Regional Commission figures released last week, Gwinnett didn’t keep pace with Fulton County in population growth in 2007. In fact, the city of Atlanta alone added more people than Gwinnett County for the first time in at least four decades, according to the study by ARC research chief Mike Alexander.

“I think we always knew that would happen,” former Gwinnett County Commission Chairman Wayne Hill said of the slowdown. Hill presided over the county during some of its biggest growth spurts.

The question, Hill said, is whether the drop is permanent.

Between 2000 and 2007, according to the ARC, Gwinnett added 151,752 people —- 29 percent more than No. 2 Fulton, according to the agency’s figures.

That works out to an average of 20,544 people a year, according to the ARC.

But in 2007, the ARC estimates Gwinnett County added 12,600 people, while Fulton County brought in 17,900 —- higher than its 16,937 average this decade.

Much of the region saw a slowdown last year, mostly attributable to the downturn in the housing market, according to the ARC.

Increasing numbers of foreclosures and restricted access to credit have made it more difficult to sell new and existing homes. That’s resulted in lower home values, which have dried up home equity and slowed the spending that many economists say has kept the economy going.

Single-family building permits fell nearly 50 percent in Gwinnett in 2007 after a 20 percent decline in 2006, according to county figures.

Viewed in that light, the change is about more than fewer new faces. Slowing growth means less revenue for the county, and county finances already are stretched.

Last week, the county announced a hiring freeze meant to put a dent in rising costs that will sap $20 million from the county’s budget this year. The tax commissioner’s office recently cut the workweek to four days to save on energy costs, and police and fire employees have been asked to take measures to save on fuel costs.

In the past two years, the county has had to dip into its reserve funds to make ends meet.

Population is a factor in numerous revenue streams, from property taxes to sewer collections, said County Manager Jock Connell. “This fact combined with the economic situation and the cost of goods at all-time highs, places the county in a challenging budget situation,” he said.

Hill thinks the county’s growth will pick up once the economy recovers.

But for Gwinnett residents who argue the county’s growth has long been too frenzied, the slowdown comes at a good time.

“Growth for growth’s sake is what got us into a mess,” said David Bignault of Lilburn.

“Perhaps a pause and a little more planning would be just the ticket.”