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The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Published on: 07/10/08
Macon —- In a beige conference room off the interstate, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle talked education policy one morning last month with about 30 public school leaders.
A few hours later and a little down the road, Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine was giving fireworks safety tips in front of local TV cameras.
They had the feel of campaign events, but both Republican officeholders insist they are just doing their jobs, not working for the next one.
With more than two years until the next gubernatorial election, most Georgians are focusing on presidential, congressional and legislative elections to come this fall.
But Cagle, Oxendine and other potential candidates to succeed Gov. Sonny Perdue are building name identification with voters and lining up big-money donors to fund campaigns in 2010.
It's certainly one of the earliest starts to gubernatorial campaigning in Georgia. And it may turn out to be one of the state's most heated governor's races.
"The main thing they are trying to do right now is lock down the big-money donors," said Matt Towery, a former Republican lawmaker who runs the media and polling firm InsiderAdvantage.
Oxendine, the only gubernatorial candidate to officially launch a campaign, reported Tuesday that he has raised $472,000 since announcing in April. That's about half what Perdue raised in 2001 in the first month or so of his initial gubernatorial campaign. But at the time, Perdue had little big-name competition for Republican donors and it was less than a year before the GOP primary.
The insurance commissioner said he expects to need $8 million to $10 million to run his campaign —- less than the $13 million Perdue spent to win re-election in 2006.
The politician likely to be the first Democrat in the race predicts it will take far more to win.
Former Adjutant Gen. David Poythress, who led the Georgia Department of Defense and the National Guard from 1999 to 2007, says it could take $20 million to run a successful campaign.
Poythress, a Democrat who previously served as Georgia's secretary of state and labor commissioner, says he will file paperwork that will allow him to begin raising money this month, two years before the 2010 primaries.
Cagle also is expected to enter the race, although he hasn't said when he'll start raising money.
After his recent visit with school superintendents in Macon, Cagle headed to Waycross, where he talked with South Georgia city and county officials, participated in a ribbon-cutting ceremony and had "private meetings" with likely backers.
When asked about the governor's race in two years, he said, "For us right now, it's about doing the job of lieutenant governor."
That job has included a series of "listening-tour" speeches and get-togethers across the state, where Cagle has been able to test his message and hear the concerns of locals.
Oxendine has built recognition across the state, as well, discussing fire and tornado damage, commenting on health or auto insurance policy and promoting fireworks safety as July 4 approached. He's also trying to build loyalty in the General Assembly, making campaign contributions to every Republican lawmaker with opposition this fall and every GOP challenger to a Democrat.
Another possible candidate, Secretary of State Karen Handel, has been busier than some of her rivals with her current job: She is overseeing the July 15 primaries and fall elections.
But she had time to visit fellow GOPers at a national Republican Governors Association conference last month in Atlanta hosted by Perdue and heavily populated by top-shelf lobbyists who help fund campaigns.
Possible Democratic candidates to succeed Perdue —- who is in the middle of his second term and can't run again —- say they are undaunted by GOP dominance of the past few statewide elections.
"Georgia is fundamentally conservative and always has been," Poythress said. "I don't know that Georgia is fundamentally Republican. What I bring to the table is a Democratic governorship that would be socially moderate and fiscally conservative."
House Minority Leader DuBose Porter (D-Dublin), said he's been "calling friends and supporters around the state, seeing what kind of network can be put together around the state and what the important issues are."
"It's been amazing to me how anxious people are to get to 2010," Porter said. "The interest in the governor's race has picked up early."
Cagle and Oxendine have both eyed the top job for several years.
Cagle served in the state Senate before winning the race to replace Democrat Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor in 2006. He showed his political experience during his trip to Waycross. During one meeting, after hearing several complaints from local officials that the state Department of Transportation was holding up the four-laning of a dangerous highway in town, he confidently told them he'd try to get the project moving.
It was exactly what the local officials, the type of folks who help build statewide political networks, wanted to hear. (Cagle says he has since assigned one of his staff members to bird-dog the issue with DOT.)
Back in Macon, evidence of Oxendine's name was easy to find. Signs planted in yards of homes damaged by a recent tornado told locals that they should contact his office if they have any problems.
"It is a high-profile position," Oxendine said. "The fact is, I have spent the last 14 years helping people with problems.
"We are doing our job. When I go out and do those things, I don't talk about a campaign. I focus on my job."
Towery, the pollster, said none of the likely hopefuls are all that well-known by the public. None of them approach the name identification of somebody like Perdue, or former Gov. Roy Barnes, whom Perdue defeated.
Towery hasn't ruled out a Barnes comeback. Barnes, a successful Marietta lawyer, has said in recent interviews with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution that he is not interested in putting his name on the ballot again.
"Everybody has written off Roy Barnes as if he's gone," Towery said. "But he would be a very formidable candidate."
A CROWD OF POSSIBILITIES
The list of potential candidates for governor in 2010 became longer when U.S. Sen. Johnny Isakson announced in May that he wouldn't run. A few names that have surfaced:
REPUBLICANS
Casey Cagle, lieutenant governor
Karen Handel, secretary of state
Jerry Keen, Georgia House majority leader
U.S. Rep. Jack Kingston
Sam Olens, Cobb County Commission chairman
John Oxendine*, insurance commissioner
U.S. Rep. Lynn Westmoreland
*Already filed paperwork to raise money to run for governor
DEMOCRATS:
Roy Barnes, former governor
DuBose Porter, State House minority leader
David Poythress, former adjutant general
Michael Thurmond, labor commissioner
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