What kind of metropolis should Atlanta aspire to be?

That's what the Arthur M. Blank Family Foundation will try to help the community answer in the coming year by inviting internationally renowned futurists and urbanists to the city.

The first speaker, futurist Joel Kotkin, is coming this week. He is sure to incite discussion and controversy by challenging new urbanism and downtown density as the wave of the future.

Kotkin prefers to talk about "New Suburbanism," which he believes will be a much more lasting and popular choice for Americans as the population tops 400 million. Kotkin has written several books and reports on global, economic, development and social trends. He is a presidential fellow of the Hobbs Institute at Chapman University in southern California.

"I think what you are seeing is the spread of urbanism across a much broader landscape, but in different forms," Kotkin said in a 90-minute telephone interview last week. "One of the big problems with urbanists is that they reject the evolving form of urbanism."

As Kotkin sees it, most of the population growth in the United States will occur in the South and the West in suburban town centers surrounding urban areas. These could be described as a hybrid of traditional suburbs that are focused around a village center.

Kotkin also sees that people will be drawn to medium-sized cities or smaller towns that, thanks to technology, can now enjoy the amenities found in the top cosmopolitan cities.

He does not see the "superstar cities" of New York, Chicago, Boston and San Francisco as places that will attract major new population growth because most people will not be able to afford to live there.

If cost of living were not a factor, Kotkin admits that many people would prefer living in the country's most attractive big cities. But those cities have priced themselves out of the market for middle-class Americans, which is where most of the population growth will occur.

The lesson for metro areas such as Atlanta is to create communities where the majority of people can afford to live. And that's one reason why Kotkin does not see the back-to-the-city movement with high-rise residential towers as being a long-term, sustainable trend.

"There's no sign that density leads to a more affordable product," Kotkin says, adding that developers are only building luxury condos. "And the number of people who want to live in high-density areas is limited."

Kotkin then says that recent demographic data shows that most people prefer to live in single-family homes or low-rise developments where they can have space and privacy.

"The problem with urbanists is that they have such contempt with the way most people want to live," Kotkin says.

Just when it sounds like Kotkin is a spokesman for the Reason Foundation and pro-automobile proponent Wendell Cox, his arguments shift.

"The older I get, the more I see the nuances," he says. "The situation is much more complex than most people realize."

So Kotkin then paints the portrait of "new suburbanism," and what he describes as an "archipelago" of self-sustaining urban villages that will have "medium density with a lot of public parks around a town center." These communities will have amenities once found only in downtown areas —- classy restaurants, arts and cultural institutions with clean streets and good schools.

Technology will be a major factor in these communities of the future as people are now able to access the same information as those living in major cities. Also, more people will end up telecommuting, or working from home full-time or part-time.

"I don't think the next generation is going to put up with spending an hour going from one computer screen to another," Kotkin says of the growing traffic problems in many major cities. "In New York City, there are already more telecommuters than those taking transit. And you will have more people working closer to home."

And it's not just people but companies that are finding new locales. "New York City has fewer jobs now than it did in 1969," Kotkin says. Companies have moved operations to less expensive communities where their employees can afford to live.

Kotkin also does not promote the phenomenon of sprawl where developers often destroy the natural environment to build mega houses on large lots.

"I'm not fond of McMansions," Kotkin says. "I think the gods of economics are going to rule out McMansions in the future."

Kotkin, who has studied development trends and communities in Houston, Los Angeles, New York, St. Louis, Phoenix and Virginia, among others, admits he has not spent enough time in Atlanta to know how his theories of the future apply to the economic capital of the Southeast.

But he believes Atlantans must realize that they are not just competing against other major cities but with suburbs, exurbs and small towns as a place where people will choose to live.

No matter what, Kotkin's views will cause Atlantans to think. And several lessons do apply.

The inner city must remain affordable for the middle class.

Urbanizing town centers in the suburbs is a trend that already is being encouraged by local leaders through the Livable Centers Initiative and the Livable Communities Coalition.

And preserving our area's natural environment while setting aside more land for public parks and open space will be necessary for the Atlanta region to remain attractive to new residents.

msaporta@ajc.com