BEAUREGARD IN OTHER GROUNDHOG’S SHADOW

An analysis of weather data and yearly groundhog predictions reveals that Punxsutawney Phil, Pennsylvania’s famous prognosticator, more accurately guessed spring’s arrival than Lilburn’s Gen. Beauregard Lee.

This, of course, according to an exhaustive (well, one or two days, anyway) Atlanta Journal-Constitution investigation into 15 years of National Weather Service data compared with Groundhog Day guessing records.

Bottom line: Phil has a 50 percent success rate predicting an early or late spring.

Beau, a relative novice with 29 years of shadow spotting, was correct one-third of the time. Accuracy was judged on temperatures going above or below the averages for February and March in each critter’s region.

Both celebrity Marmot monax are shaken from sleep on Feb. 2; if they see their shadows, spring comes late. If they don’t, it arrives early. Calendar-wise, spring arrives March 20.

Punxsutawney Phil’s handlers say he’s immortal and his predictions are 100 percent accurate since he started in 1887. His forecasts apply to “whoever believes,” regardless of location, they say.

Beau works out of Yellow River Game Ranch in Lilburn and holds two honorary doctorates from Georgia universities.

He’s widely considered an expert on the Southern climate, although his credibility took a hit in 1993, when his prediction of an early spring was followed by an ice storm.

Beau was hibernating last week and not able to comment.

Because he is a groundhog.

Staff writer Sharon Gaus contributed to this article.

ON AJC.COM

> Will the groundhog see his shadow? Find out on ajc.com

 CHARLES W. JONES
A TALE OF TWO GROUNDHOGS 
Results of a study comparing weather-predicting performance between Punxsutawney Phil and Gen. Beauregard Lee, of Lilburn. 
—-
Key
Shadow seen: Yes = Late; No = Early
Outcome: Right/Wrong
—-
Phil 
'94 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Right
'95 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'96 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Right
'97 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Right
'98 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Wrong
'99 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'00 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Wrong
'01 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Right
'02 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Wrong
'03 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Right
'04 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Wrong
'05 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Right
'06 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Right
'07 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'08 Shadow seen: Y / Outcome: Right
—-
Beau 
'94 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Right
'95 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Right
'96 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'97 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Right
'98 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'99 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'00 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Right
'01 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'02 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'03 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'04 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'05 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'06 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong
'07 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Right
'08 Shadow seen: N / Outcome: Wrong 

Sources: AJC News Research; National Weather Service. Early and late spring were determined based on each area's average temperature for February and March from 1994-2008.