Are Atlanta’s suburbs going blue?

In metro Atlanta, Barack Obama accomplished something fellow Democrat John Kerry couldn’t four years ago. He won some of the suburbs.

The Democratic president-elect carried Douglas, Newton and Rockdale counties. Kerry, in the 2004 presidential election, lost all three to President Bush by huge margins. Obama also ran much closer in Cobb and Gwinnett counties, winning roughly 45 percent of the vote where Kerry only carried a third.

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Demographers have long predicted that the steady migration of nonwhite voters into metro Atlanta’s once monolithically Republican suburbs would eventually transform them into politically competitive turf.

To some, Obama’s showing in these counties suggests this transformation might be taking place faster than previously predicted.

“We are just one election cycle away from possible parity between Republicans and Democrats in Gwinnett and Cobb,” said Mark Rountree, a GOP political strategist based in Duluth.

Just a decade ago, Cobb and Gwinnett were twin pillars of Georgia Republicanism, part of a ring of GOP dominance surrounding Democratic DeKalb and Fulton counties. Cobb was home turf to Republican Newt Gingrich, then the U.S. House speaker, the third-highest-ranking elected official in the nation. Back then, Cobb and Gwinnett supplied more votes to Republican candidates running statewide than anywhere else in Georgia.

Tuesday’s results suggest that the suburban GOP doughnut is getting pushed farther out. Republican John McCain won less than 55 percent of the vote in Cobb, Gwinnett and Henry counties. But the Republican won more than three-fourths of the vote in Barrow, Cherokee, Hall and Walton counties.

Cobb and Gwinnett each lost an incumbent GOP legislator to a Democrat. Democrats also picked up a seat on the Cobb school board.

In Gwinnett, a political unknown, Democrat Vincent Passariello, carried 44 percent of the vote against Commission Chairman Charles Bannister, a Republican. Jamil Imran, the Democrat who ran against Bannister in 2004, carried only three of every 10 votes cast.

In Gwinnett, the results of the presidential and U.S. Senate elections suggest two Democratic strongholds.

One runs along I-85 and Ga. 316. It includes most of Norcross, more than half of Lilburn and almost all of Duluth — areas with large populations of Latinos, Asians and other ethnic minorities.

The other runs from the southern tip of the county north to U.S. 78 and includes portions of Snellville and Loganville.

The transformation of this area has been largely driven by the migration of African-Americans from Stone Mountain to southern Gwinnett, political experts say.

“We’re certainly seeing a trend of more Democratic voters in Gwinnett County,” said Lee Thompson of Lawrenceville, a Democrat who defeated Republican state Rep. John Heard last week. “If you go door to door in my district, you’ll find neighborhoods with a wide mix of people willing to vote for a Democrat.”

But Bannister, the Republican county leader, said Obama’s showing in Gwinnett exaggerates the strength of the Democratic Party in the county.

“I don’t think they are growing as fast as the votes suggest,” Bannister said. “I think if you lift this particular election out, you’ll find of lot of people voted Democrat for a lot of different reasons.”

Among them, Bannister said, voter outrage over the state of the economy and the $700 billion government bailout of Wall Street.

Bannister acknowledged that demographic change is making Gwinnett more hospitable for Democrats, but their party isn’t exclusively benefiting from it.

Two of Gwinnett’s GOP state House members are ethnic minorities: Rep. David Casas of Lilburn is Hispanic, and Rep. Melvin Everson of Snellville is African-American.

Census figures show that in 2000, whites accounted for 73 percent of the Gwinnett population. By 2004, that population dropped to 67 percent, according to census estimates. Marketing estimates by Claritas show that whites now account for 59 percent.

Stacey Crawford didn’t live in Gwinnett in 2004. Less than two years ago, she moved from Florida to Snellville with her husband. The Crawfords are part of a wave of new black residents around Snellville who, experts say, helped boost Obama’s Gwinnett vote higher than Kerry’s 2004 showing.

Crawford said there are ethnically mixed neighborhoods in and around Snellville, but they don’t reflect the town’s population as a whole.

“There are neighborhoods that are diverse. But when I go into the stores, I see predominantly white older people,” Crawford said. “I don’t know they’re conservative, but you can kind of look at them and tell.”

Russell Hawes is one of them. The 76-year-old self-described “Reagan Democrat” voted for McCain.

“Blacks were going to vote for [Obama] no matter what, and of course, you can’t blame them,” said Hawes, who is white. “I wouldn’t vote for him.”

Hawes moved from DeKalb to Snellville 40 years ago looking for a quieter life. He’s now considering moving again. It’s not the area’s growing diversity that bothers him, Hawes said, it’s the congestion.

“Snellville is looking more and more like DeKalb County every day,” Hawes said.

Staff writer Kent Miles contributed to this article.