Expect great weather for voting (which could be good for Democrats)

Forget scapegoating Mother Nature if you’re looking to avoid voting Tuesday. In fact, you might be disappointed if the lines at your polling place are shorter than anticipated.

The forecast is that good: sunny skies, light winds and a high of 68 degrees. No rain is expected.

Early voters will experience a slight chill, with a temperature of 49 degrees predicted for 7 a.m., when polls open in Georgia. It’ll be 58 degrees when polls close at 7 p.m., the National Weather Service says.

That’s eerily similar to the weather in Atlanta on Nov. 2, Election Day 2004. The high was 67 degrees; the low, 47 degrees. There was some rain, though it didn’t start falling until after polls closed.

Such favorable weather conditions historically benefit Democrats, according to a study released in 2005 by political scientists Brad Gomez and Thomas Hansford of the University South Carolina and George Krause of the University of Pittsburgh.

Examining fourteen presidential elections (from 1948 to 2000) and employing meteorological data from more than 22,000 U.S. weather stations, their research concluded “rain significantly reduces voter participation at the polls by a rate just under 1 percent per inch.”

“Snowfall also decreases turnout, but only in rural counties,” the study said. “Moreover, we show that the estimated number of voters lost due to precipitation significantly benefits the Republican Party’s vote share and GOP incumbents particularly.”

Gomez and Hansford say the weather may have even played a determining factor in the 1960 election; Democrat John F. Kennedy won the popular vote that year by 0.1 percentage point.

Nationally, clear skies are predicted for most everywhere in the U.S., save for the Pacific Northwest and some mountain states, with temperatures in much of the country exceeding seasonal averages.

The forecast for Chicago, where Democratic nominee Barack Obama’s election night celebration is planned, is a carbon copy of Atlanta’s — sunny and mild. A record high of 71 degrees is predicted.

In Phoenix, where Republican John McCain will hold his election night party, it’ll be 78 degrees and clear.

Weather shouldn’t be a factor in any of the battleground states, except Virginia. There’s a 60 percent chance of rain in Richmond and Charlottesville, but precipitation should be light, according to the weather service.