Chambliss-Martin Senate race getting tighter

The cakewalk has suddenly become a contest.

Just a month ago, no one — especially Democrats — gave Democrat Jim Martin much of a chance against Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss. But an economic crisis can quickly alter the political landscape. Depending on which poll you believe, Martin is now only 6 points behind Chambliss, or perhaps dead-even, with just three weeks until election day.

Chambliss, whose campaign once enjoyed a double-digit lead and has run only positive television ads so far, will go on the offensive in the final weeks of the race as the two former University of Georgia fraternity brothers slug it out against a national backdrop of increasing Democratic clout in the face of economic uncertainty.

“We won’t be attacking Martin,” Chambliss campaign spokeswoman Michelle Grasso said Thursday. “We will be defining Martin based on his past votes. He has a long record in Georgia that a lot of people are not familiar with and need to be.”

Democrats think the recent roiling of the financial markets and Chambliss’ backing of a $700 billion financial rescue plan has given them a chance to peel off once-certain Republican votes. They believe the race has shifted, just as most voters begin to focus on the Nov. 4 election.

“These polls confirm what we’ve been hearing from middle class Georgians all across the state who are fed up with Saxby Economics: they’re being hit hard by the failed economic policies of the Bush Administration that Saxby Chambliss has supported every step of the way,” said Martin spokeswoman Kate Hansen.

Chambliss still has a huge fund-raising advantage — 4 to 1 over Martin by most estimates — and until recently the Republican’s seat was considered safe in a state where the governor’s office, both chambers of the state Legislature, the majority of its Congressional delegation and both U.S. Senate seats are controlled by Republicans.

However, the non-partisan political Web site Pollster.com now calls the Chambliss-Martin race a tossup, as does The Cook Political Report. Congressional Quarterly recently changed its rating of the race to “Leans Republican” from “Republican Favored.”

Last week, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer described Georgia and Kentucky as “even-steven races.” The committee hasn’t, however, officially added Georgia to its list of battleground states, and has been slow to pour money into the race. A spokesman said the committee did partially fund Martin’s latest television ad, which blames Chambliss for the economic turmoil.

“We think it’s a neck-and-neck race,” said DSCC spokesman Matthew Miller. “That’s why we sent money to the state party.”

Martin has unleashed a series of ads tying Chambliss to the nation’s economic woes. Chambliss will probably focus on Martin’s extensive record in state government as the campaign nears the finish line.

Martin came under a blistering attack from his Democratic opponents during the primary for his troubled tenure as chief of the state Department of Human Resources.

Some voters, however, appear to be most interested in the economy.

Palmetto resident J.W. Wood, 54, considers himself an independent voter, but said he will vote for Martin this year.

“I’m going to have to vote my pocketbook,” said Wood who works for the City of Atlanta Water Department. “The people who care more about my pocketbook recently are Democrats.”

But Steve Woodward, 52, of East Cobb said the recent economic crisis has persuaded him to vote for Chambliss. He said Martin’s television attack ads, which blame Republicans for the nation’s financial troubles, backfired.

“That ad made up my mind to go the other way,” he said. ” I thought the whole premise of the ad was not true. I think Democrats are more to blame than the Republicans.”

Chambliss’ backers still believe the first-term senator will win re-election. But they predict the race will be tighter than they first thought. Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama’s recent surge in the polls and his ability to register masses of younger voters, bodes well for Martin and Democrats in general, Republicans and Democrats agree.

“The Obama factor will obviously bring out more Democrats,” said Republican state Chairwoman Sue Everhart. “I’m confident Saxby will win but maybe not by the large margin he did last time.”

Everhart predicts Chambliss will win by “five points.” But she quickly adds: “I don’t care as long as he gets 50 percent plus one vote.”

A former congressman from Moultrie, Chambliss himself was considered a long shot in his 2002 race against former Democratic U.S. Sen. Max Cleland. He was behind for most of that race, but peaked in the last two weeks, eventually beating Cleland with 53 percent of the vote — Cleland got 46 percent.

That defeat, which helped Republicans gain a Senate majority, infuriated Democrats, who have had Chambliss in their sights ever since.

The candidates still have five debates ahead of them, and in a few days Chambliss will embark on a a 75-county, 90-stop bus tour that ends the day before the election. Martin is holding a “Virtual Town Hall” this evening for Democratic and undecided women.

“Saxby has always said, even when we were 20 points up, don’t believe the polls,” Grasso said. “We’ve never run a campaign based on polls. We always run a campaign as if it’s a very tight race.”